Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Coherent, SMCI, Entegris all posting solid gains, while Skyworks priced in its poor outlook for its Apple biz.</li>
<li>Monolithic as much as +19% post market setting a better tone for power/analog semi related. Renesas +12.6% yesterday also.</li>
<li>Tokyo Electron numbers mixed but positive overall and any weakness at the open a good chance for dip buying.</li>
</ul>


Coherent, SMCI, Entegris all posting solid gains, while Skyworks priced in its poor outlook for its Apple biz.
Monolithic as much as +19% post market setting a better tone for power/analog semi related. Renesas +12.6% yesterday also.
Tokyo Electron numbers mixed but positive overall and any weakness at the open a good chance for dip buying.


Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Read from the US but Direction Pointing Higher

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC Expands 2nm &amp; Advanced Packaging in Taiwan, Advances 1nm "GIGAFAB" in the South -- Despite U.S. Tariff Risks</li>
<li>Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC? -- Maintain Structural Long for TSMC.</li>
<li>Apple Supply Chain Monitor -- Why Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple's AI Trajectory</li>
</ul>


TSMC Expands 2nm &amp; Advanced Packaging in Taiwan, Advances 1nm "GIGAFAB" in the South -- Despite U.S. Tariff Risks
Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC? -- Maintain Structural Long for TSMC.
Apple Supply Chain Monitor -- Why Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple's AI Trajectory


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?

<ul>
<li>Lam Research and KLA carrying on from ASML beat earlier in the week: positive for JP SPE.</li>
<li>Intel trading better after hours with earnings not a horrible as feared may help JP suppliers.</li>
<li>IBM beat on its transition to services and AI offerings should help JP IT such as Fujitsu, as well as NEC and NRI who also reported yesterday.</li>
</ul>


Lam Research and KLA carrying on from ASML beat earlier in the week: positive for JP SPE.
Intel trading better after hours with earnings not a horrible as feared may help JP suppliers.
IBM beat on its transition to services and AI offerings should help JP IT such as Fujitsu, as well as NEC and NRI who also reported yesterday.


Japan Morning Connection: Semi Rebound with Good Earnings from Semi-Cap Majors

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 3 days left in the review period, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> has a 11.29% weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. That means double capping in March.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.</li>
<li>Double capping will result in big selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.</li>
</ul>


With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.


Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

<ul>
<li>Japan saw big gains for SPE in the last 15 mins of trading on the TSMC capex outlook which should continue today.</li>
<li>Luxury names got a shot in the arm from Richemont numbers overnight so likes of Shiseido and Kose  may see a knee jerk higher.</li>
<li>Nintendo looks to have largely priced in the Switch 2, but upside remains for component makers.</li>
</ul>


Japan saw big gains for SPE in the last 15 mins of trading on the TSMC capex outlook which should continue today.
Luxury names got a shot in the arm from Richemont numbers overnight so likes of Shiseido and Kose  may see a knee jerk higher.
Nintendo looks to have largely priced in the Switch 2, but upside remains for component makers.


Japan Morning Connection: US Semi-Capex Names Higher on TSMC Numbers...more for JP Also?

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Read from the US but Direction Pointing Higher

Skyworks priced in poor outlook for its Apple business. Market sets a better tone for power/anolog semi related. Any weakness in Tokyo Electron a...

Andrew Jackson

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?

TSMC expands in Taiwan and advances in South despite U.S. tariff risks, Japan's Rapidus challenges TSMC, Zhen Ding and Kinsus in favorable...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Japan Morning Connection: Semi Rebound with Good Earnings from Semi-Cap Majors

Positive earnings reports from Lam Research and KLA bode well for JP SPE. Intel earnings better than feared may help JP suppliers. IBM beat may...

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Fast Retailing will be capped (again) in March - the question is whether it will be single or double. Passives will need to sell either 5x or 10x...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: US Semi-Capex Names Higher on TSMC Numbers...more for JP Also?

Gains due to positive outlook from TSMC should continue today, Richemont numbers may see Shiseido and Kose higher, component makers for Nintendo...

Andrew Jackson

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Read from the US but Direction Pointing Higher

Skyworks priced in poor outlook for its Apple business. Market sets a better tone for power/anolog semi related. Any weakness in Tokyo Electron a...

Andrew Jackson

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?

​TSMC expands in Taiwan and advances in South despite U.S. tariff risks, Japan's Rapidus challenges TSMC, Zhen Ding and Kinsus in favorable...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Japan Morning Connection: Semi Rebound with Good Earnings from Semi-Cap Majors

​Positive earnings reports from Lam Research and KLA bode well for JP SPE. Intel earnings better than feared may help JP suppliers. IBM beat may...

Andrew Jackson

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

Fast Retailing will be capped (again) in March - the question is whether it will be single or double. Passives will need to sell either 5x or 10x...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: US Semi-Capex Names Higher on TSMC Numbers...more for JP Also?

Gains due to positive outlook from TSMC should continue today, Richemont numbers may see Shiseido and Kose higher, component makers for Nintendo...

Andrew Jackson

TSMC expands in Taiwan and advances in South despite U.S. tariff risks, Japan's Rapidus challenges TSMC, Zhen Ding and Kinsus in favorable...

Positive earnings reports from Lam Research and KLA bode well for JP SPE. Intel earnings better than feared may help JP suppliers. IBM beat may...