Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div>ASML reported its 3Q2019 results on Wednesday (16th October 2019) which saw revenues grew 7.6% YoY while operating profit for the quarter declined 16.2% YoY. The growth in revenue was mainly driven by ArF Immersion and EUV segments while drop in operating profit was mainly due to an increase in R&amp;D expenses during the quarter. In 3Q2019, the company had sold 7 EUV units, and of which 3 were NXE:3400Cs which are high margin tools and as a result, the gross margin expanded significantly to 43.8% from 39.8% a year ago. The company closed the quarter with a strong order book of EUR5.1bn including orders for 23 EUV tools compared to EUR2.8bn at the end of 2Q2019 with 10 bookings for EUV systems.</div><div>ASML is expecting 4Q2019 revenues to grow 24% YoY while expects gross margin in the range of 48-49% on the back of growing NXE:3400Cs. In fact, ASML has mentioned that nearly all of EUV shipments in the fourth quarter will be NXE:3400Cs. The company previously forecasted EUV shipments of 30 units in 2019, however, due to some issues in the supply chain, the company now expects to close the year with 26 shipments while the other four units will be shipped in first weeks of 2020. ASML also expects the service revenues to increase with growth in the number of EUV units alongside higher field upgrades. As per the company, the logic segment remains healthy due to AI and 5G. While there is uncertainty surrounding the memory segment, the growing demand for EUV units particularly the NXE:3400Cs point to a recovery in the DRAM segment. A substantial percentage of the EUV orders at the end of 3Q2019 are related to DRAM and the company expects to ship 35 EUV Systems in 2020.</div><div>ASML's shares have gained more than 25% since we last wrote on the company and we believe, there is more room for share price growth.</div><div>We discuss the details below.</div>

ASML reported its 3Q2019 results on Wednesday (16th October 2019) which saw revenues grew 7.6% YoY while operating profit for the quarter declined 16.2% YoY. The growth in revenue was mainly driven by ArF Immersion and EUV segments while drop in operating profit was mainly due to an increase in R&amp;D expenses during the quarter. In 3Q2019, the company had sold 7 EUV units, and of which 3 were NXE:3400Cs which are high margin tools and as a result, the gross margin expanded significantly to 43.8% from 39.8% a year ago. The company closed the quarter with a strong order book of EUR5.1bn including orders for 23 EUV tools compared to EUR2.8bn at the end of 2Q2019 with 10 bookings for EUV systems.ASML is expecting 4Q2019 revenues to grow 24% YoY while expects gross margin in the range of 48-49% on the back of growing NXE:3400Cs. In fact, ASML has mentioned that nearly all of EUV shipments in the fourth quarter will be NXE:3400Cs. The company previously forecasted EUV shipments of 30 units in 2019, however, due to some issues in the supply chain, the company now expects to close the year with 26 shipments while the other four units will be shipped in first weeks of 2020. ASML also expects the service revenues to increase with growth in the number of EUV units alongside higher field upgrades. As per the company, the logic segment remains healthy due to AI and 5G. While there is uncertainty surrounding the memory segment, the growing demand for EUV units particularly the NXE:3400Cs point to a recovery in the DRAM segment. A substantial percentage of the EUV orders at the end of 3Q2019 are related to DRAM and the company expects to ship 35 EUV Systems in 2020.ASML's shares have gained more than 25% since we last wrote on the company and we believe, there is more room for share price growth.We discuss the details below.

ASML 3Q2019 Results: Logic Drives Strong Revenues While EUV Supports Recovery in Margins

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<p style="text-align: left;">The short notional in the market for the week ended 4 October is US$29.49bn (down by US$3.14bn) with the largest short positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>. Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3348:1">Nippon Carbon (5302 JP)</a> while the stocks with the highest days to cover are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-trust-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20246:1">J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vital-ksk-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7398:1">Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirait-holdings-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7034:1">Mirait Holdings (1417 JP)</a>. </p><p style="text-align: left;">The largest increases in short notional over the fortnight were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1">Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1">Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a>.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1"></a> </p><p style="text-align: left;">Sectorally, shorts were covered in all sectors except Health Care and Communication Services.</p>

The short notional in the market for the week ended 4 October is US$29.49bn (down by US$3.14bn) with the largest short positions in Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP), KDDI Corp (9433 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP) and Canon Inc (7751 JP). Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Tokai Carbon (5301 JP) and Nippon Carbon (5302 JP) while the stocks with the highest days to cover are Katakura Industries (3001 JP), J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP),Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP) and Mirait Holdings (1417 JP). The largest increases in short notional over the fortnight were M3 Inc (2413 JP), Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP), Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) and Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) while shorts were covered in Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP), Fanuc Corp (6954 JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035 JP).   Sectorally, shorts were covered in all sectors except Health Care and Communication Services.

Japan Short Interest - Huge Short Covering, but M3 Sees Big New Shorts

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<div class="content-caption"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/175/original/2019-09-29_05-54-31.png?1569704091" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100175"></figure></div><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>TAKE PROFITS</strong> - The 'breakout' rally above the 50-day moving average over the last thirteen trading days has added 8% to total market value and has been driven by ample liquidity, stronger US$, a lack of developments in global trade talks and more dove-like utterances and stances from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, respectively. With the US Treasury about to restore its cash balance (through large T-bill offerings) by over US$250 billion, the US monetary base could contract by over 5% in the next quarter. Markets will face a stiff headwind and, with business conditions moving from bad to worse and central banks limited in the scope of further comment/action, the fourth quarter could be as perilous as the third quarter was benign.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/176/original/2019-09-29_07-49-09.png?1569710965" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100176"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/177/original/2019-09-29_08-01-13.png?1569711690" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100177"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/178/original/2019-09-29_08-09-38.png?1569712198" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100178"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>PEAK ACTION</strong> - Both the 5-day <strong>Relative Strength Index</strong> and the 25-day <strong>Toraku Index</strong> have pulled back from extreme levels from which further upside is typically limited. In a similar vein, the 52 Week New Highs - New Lows reached a 20-month high of 141 on Thursday suggesting a peak in this bear market rally.   </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/179/original/2019-09-29_08-29-33.png?1569713388" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100179"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>VOLUME SCORE TIMELINE</strong> - Volume peaked on 13th September at the highest level of any day this year and, as of Friday, is still above the fourth-month average. Favoured Sectors continue to be non-manufacturing, especially the Internet, IT, Commercial Services and REITs Sectors. Volume is weakest in the Metals, Machinery, Technology Hardware Sectors, but also now in the 'China-related' Other Consumer Products Sector. The Bank of Japan resumed ETF purchases on Friday after an eighteen-trading day hiatus.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/180/original/2019-09-29_12-35-13.png?1569728129" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100180"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION</strong> - Relief over the apparent conclusion of Japan/US trade talks without any tariffs on Japan's <strong>Auto</strong> sector resulted in a 22 bps return contribution from the Sector; we would take profits on the conclusion of the final deal as global sales trends remain dire.  The <strong>Telecommunications</strong> Sector's underperformance reflects the 16% decline in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> over the period for reasons well-documented on this platform.  The other outperforming Sectors are mostly in domestic non-manufacturing, but <strong>Technology Hardware</strong> continues to defy underlying current business conditions, as we shall discuss below.  <strong>Retail</strong> stocks are benefiting from positive sentiment to the short-term stimulus, although the early results from the Sector, many of whose leading companies will report second-quarter results over the next two weeks, suggest this optimism is, perhaps, misplaced. Lastly, the <strong>Banks</strong> Sector appears to have reached a short-term nadir and rose by 1.6% over the period.   </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/182/original/2019-09-29_12-57-32.png?1569729476" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100182"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR SCORE MATRIX - </strong>Our Sector Score matrix spreads all 30 Sectors by Relative Price Score and Results &amp; Revisions Score where the extreme outliers are denoted as <strong>Contrarian Sell</strong>, <strong>Contrarian Buy</strong>, <strong>Unrequited Growth</strong>, and <strong>Ex-Growth</strong>. The Information Technology Sector is the only 'Contrarian Sell', and we note that the Sector declined by 0.7% over the last three months. <strong>Consumer Services</strong> is the most Overbought Sector, mostly due to the continuing out-performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> - now the fifth-most Overbought mega-cap. <strong>Banks</strong> are no longer a 'Contrarian Buy', while, as noted in our last Update, <strong>Metals</strong> remain the value investor pick, and saw at least one broker upgrade <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel (5401 JP)</a> last week.    </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/201/original/2019-09-30_04-51-12.png?1569786797" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100201"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/100/202/original/2019-09-30_04-57-34.png?1569787075" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="100202"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SCORE</strong> - As we head into the next results 'season' it is instructive to note that earnings momentum is still negative and our Results &amp; Revision Score is at its lowest point since April 2017. The Series correlates well with the Cabinet Office's Leading Indicator which as of July reached a new 'post-GFC' low. Japanese listed corporated have done well to preserve their earnings power in harsh global conditions. We are about to discover how much of this is due to spending brought forward ahead of next month's consumption tax increase. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous three months.</p></div>

Source: Japan AnalyticsTAKE PROFITS - The 'breakout' rally above the 50-day moving average over the last thirteen trading days has added 8% to total market value and has been driven by ample liquidity, stronger US$, a lack of developments in global trade talks and more dove-like utterances and stances from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, respectively. With the US Treasury about to restore its cash balance (through large T-bill offerings) by over US$250 billion, the US monetary base could contract by over 5% in the next quarter. Markets will face a stiff headwind and, with business conditions moving from bad to worse and central banks limited in the scope of further comment/action, the fourth quarter could be as perilous as the third quarter was benign.Source: Japan AnalyticsPEAK ACTION - Both the 5-day Relative Strength Index and the 25-day Toraku Index have pulled back from extreme levels from which further upside is typically limited. In a similar vein, the 52 Week New Highs - New Lows reached a 20-month high of 141 on Thursday suggesting a peak in this bear market rally.   Source: Japan AnalyticsVOLUME SCORE TIMELINE - Volume peaked on 13th September at the highest level of any day this year and, as of Friday, is still above the fourth-month average. Favoured Sectors continue to be non-manufacturing, especially the Internet, IT, Commercial Services and REITs Sectors. Volume is weakest in the Metals, Machinery, Technology Hardware Sectors, but also now in the 'China-related' Other Consumer Products Sector. The Bank of Japan resumed ETF purchases on Friday after an eighteen-trading day hiatus.Source: Japan Analytics3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION - Relief over the apparent conclusion of Japan/US trade talks without any tariffs on Japan's Auto sector resulted in a 22 bps return contribution from the Sector; we would take profits on the conclusion of the final deal as global sales trends remain dire.  The Telecommunications Sector's underperformance reflects the 16% decline in Softbank Group (9984 JP) over the period for reasons well-documented on this platform.  The other outperforming Sectors are mostly in domestic non-manufacturing, but Technology Hardware continues to defy underlying current business conditions, as we shall discuss below.  Retail stocks are benefiting from positive sentiment to the short-term stimulus, although the early results from the Sector, many of whose leading companies will report second-quarter results over the next two weeks, suggest this optimism is, perhaps, misplaced. Lastly, the Banks Sector appears to have reached a short-term nadir and rose by 1.6% over the period.   Source: Japan AnalyticsSECTOR SCORE MATRIX - Our Sector Score matrix spreads all 30 Sectors by Relative Price Score and Results &amp; Revisions Score where the extreme outliers are denoted as Contrarian Sell, Contrarian Buy, Unrequited Growth, and Ex-Growth. The Information Technology Sector is the only 'Contrarian Sell', and we note that the Sector declined by 0.7% over the last three months. Consumer Services is the most Overbought Sector, mostly due to the continuing out-performance of Oriental Land (4661 JP) - now the fifth-most Overbought mega-cap. Banks are no longer a 'Contrarian Buy', while, as noted in our last Update, Metals remain the value investor pick, and saw at least one broker upgrade Nippon Steel (5401 JP) last week.    Source: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS &amp; REVISIONS SCORE - As we head into the next results 'season' it is instructive to note that earnings momentum is still negative and our Results &amp; Revision Score is at its lowest point since April 2017. The Series correlates well with the Cabinet Office's Leading Indicator which as of July reached a new 'post-GFC' low. Japanese listed corporated have done well to preserve their earnings power in harsh global conditions. We are about to discover how much of this is due to spending brought forward ahead of next month's consumption tax increase. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous three months.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Take Profits

<p style="text-align: left;">The short notional in the market for the week ended 20 September is US$32.63bn with the largest short positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1">Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP)</a>. Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Amazia, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/extreme-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5311:1">Extreme Co Ltd (6033 JP)</a>, while the stocks with the highest days to cover are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirait-holdings-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7034:1">Mirait Holdings (1417 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vital-ksk-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7398:1">Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-trust-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20246:1">J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP)</a>.</p><p style="text-align: left;">The largest increases in short notional over the week were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1">Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">Familymart UNY Holdings (8028 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a>.   <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1"></a></p><p style="text-align: left;">Sectorally, new short positions were built in all sectors except Real Estate.</p>

The short notional in the market for the week ended 20 September is US$32.63bn with the largest short positions in Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP), KDDI Corp (9433 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP). Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Amazia, Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), and Extreme Co Ltd (6033 JP), while the stocks with the highest days to cover are Katakura Industries (3001 JP), Mirait Holdings (1417 JP), Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP) and J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP).The largest increases in short notional over the week were KDDI Corp (9433 JP), Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) while shorts were covered in Softbank Corp (9434 JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), Familymart UNY Holdings (8028 JP) and Kao Corp (4452 JP).   Sectorally, new short positions were built in all sectors except Real Estate.

Japan Short Interest - Another Jump Across Sectors

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

<p>Screen Holding's share price has rebounded by 87% from its 52-week low at the beginning of June, a performance comparable to that of other leading semiconductor production equipment (SPE) makers including Tokyo Electron, Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA. At ¥6,690 (Friday, September 20 closing price), Screen is selling at 18.4x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-20. </p><p>The latest wafer fab equipment forecast from industry organization SEMI, announced during the Semicon West trade show in July, has worldwide SPE sales falling by 18% to $52.7 billion in calendar 2019 and then rebounding by 12% to 58.8 billion in 2020. SEMI also expects 300mm fab equipment spending to gradually recover in 2020 and reach a new record high of more than $60 billion in 2021. Adding 200mm equipment spending in China and elsewhere might take total sales back to the $64.5 billion peak reached in 2018. </p><p>Screen's consolidated sales were down 19.7% year-on-year and the company dropped into the red in the three months to June, but new SPE orders rebounded, rising 17.0% from 4Q of FY Mar-19 and 18.6% year-on-year. New orders for equipment used in the production of flat panel displays were also up.</p><p>After a downward revision in July, management is now guiding for an 11.0% decline in consolidated sales, a 15.7% decline in operating profit and a 5.9% decline in net profit in FY Mar-20. This implies rising sales and profits during the remainder of this fiscal year.</p><p>Risks include a slowing global economy, the possibility that cell-phone sales will remain weak until 5G wireless service is widely available, and the ongoing trade war. SPE shares have risen so far so fast that a period of consolidation seems likely.</p>

Screen Holding's share price has rebounded by 87% from its 52-week low at the beginning of June, a performance comparable to that of other leading semiconductor production equipment (SPE) makers including Tokyo Electron, Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA. At ¥6,690 (Friday, September 20 closing price), Screen is selling at 18.4x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-20. The latest wafer fab equipment forecast from industry organization SEMI, announced during the Semicon West trade show in July, has worldwide SPE sales falling by 18% to $52.7 billion in calendar 2019 and then rebounding by 12% to 58.8 billion in 2020. SEMI also expects 300mm fab equipment spending to gradually recover in 2020 and reach a new record high of more than $60 billion in 2021. Adding 200mm equipment spending in China and elsewhere might take total sales back to the $64.5 billion peak reached in 2018. Screen's consolidated sales were down 19.7% year-on-year and the company dropped into the red in the three months to June, but new SPE orders rebounded, rising 17.0% from 4Q of FY Mar-19 and 18.6% year-on-year. New orders for equipment used in the production of flat panel displays were also up.After a downward revision in July, management is now guiding for an 11.0% decline in consolidated sales, a 15.7% decline in operating profit and a 5.9% decline in net profit in FY Mar-20. This implies rising sales and profits during the remainder of this fiscal year.Risks include a slowing global economy, the possibility that cell-phone sales will remain weak until 5G wireless service is widely available, and the ongoing trade war. SPE shares have risen so far so fast that a period of consolidation seems likely.

Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Anticipated Recovery Largely Discounted

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

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Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Anticipated Recovery Largely Discounted

Screen Holding's share price has rebounded by 87% from its 52-week low at the beginning of June, a performance comparable to that of other leading...

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