Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were index review announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and STAR100 Index later in the week.</li>
<li>Another week of outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK)</a> as inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> continue.</li>
</ul>


There were index review announcements for the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the STAR50 INDEX and STAR100 Index later in the week.
Another week of outflows for Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) and Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK) as inflows to iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) continue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/open-house-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19550:1" rel="noopener">Open House</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20269:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Chemical</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koei-tecmo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20277:1" rel="noopener">Koei Tecmo Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oji-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11348:1" rel="noopener">Oji Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiwa-house-reit-investment-cb077099-8006-45e4-83cf-6ac7f19cd384" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11283:1" rel="noopener">Daiwa House Reit Investment</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tosoh-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7011:1" rel="noopener">Tosoh Corp</a> will have passive selling at the close on 29 February.</li>
<li>Short interest has increased on all these stocks over the last few weeks and there has been big underperformance versus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index</a>.</li>
<li>Cumulative excess volume has increased on the stocks and there will be short covering in the last week of the month.</li>
</ul>



BayCurrent Consulting, Open House, Sumitomo Chemical, Koei Tecmo Holdings, Kose Corp, Oji Holdings, Daiwa House Reit Investment and Tosoh Corp will have passive selling at the close on 29 February.
Short interest has increased on all these stocks over the last few weeks and there has been big underperformance versus the Nikkei 225 Index and TOPIX Index.
Cumulative excess volume has increased on the stocks and there will be short covering in the last week of the month.


Japan - Shorts & Positioning on Passive Sells

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>% of independent directors continued a modest rise, and % of women board members still reached 10% level. 6 of 1,788 companies transitioned to Company with US type 3 Committees.</li>
<li>Growth Policy score improved as more companies included ROIC in their KPIs, and AGM Disclosures score improved as the majority of prime market listed companies joined the voting platform.</li>
<li>Scores related to the use of cash and IR Disclosures score also didn’t improve noticeably. Companies are not taking action on how to use cash to expand their corporate value.</li>
</ul>


% of independent directors continued a modest rise, and % of women board members still reached 10% level. 6 of 1,788 companies transitioned to Company with US type 3 Committees.
Growth Policy score improved as more companies included ROIC in their KPIs, and AGM Disclosures score improved as the majority of prime market listed companies joined the voting platform.
Scores related to the use of cash and IR Disclosures score also didn’t improve noticeably. Companies are not taking action on how to use cash to expand their corporate value.


Corporate Governance in Japan Is Improving, but Has yet to Take Steps to Create Value

<ul>
<li>With ISS's plan to resume ROE criteria and TSE's mention of P/B, more shareholder proposals calling for stronger shareholder returns due to stagnant stock prices and ROEs can be expected.</li>
<li>Since over 30% of listed companies have major shareholders holding 20% or more of their interests, the voting behavior of domestic institutions is key to the passage of shareholder proposals.</li>
<li>With TSE's disclosure request regarding the significance of parent-subsidiary listings, this matter will become another focus of the AGM in business portfolio reform and securing the interests of minority shareholders.</li>
</ul>


With ISS's plan to resume ROE criteria and TSE's mention of P/B, more shareholder proposals calling for stronger shareholder returns due to stagnant stock prices and ROEs can be expected.
Since over 30% of listed companies have major shareholders holding 20% or more of their interests, the voting behavior of domestic institutions is key to the passage of shareholder proposals.
With TSE's disclosure request regarding the significance of parent-subsidiary listings, this matter will become another focus of the AGM in business portfolio reform and securing the interests of minority shareholders.


Shareholder Proposals Likely a Focus at 2024 AGM Are ROE, P/B, and Parent-Subsidiary Listings

<ul>
<li>EPS and BPS had run in parallel since June 2022, but BPS has accelerated at a more rapid pace since May 2023, and TOPIX has risen sharply since April 2023.</li>
<li>Since TOPIX is more correlated with BPS than EPS, the hypothesis that "stock prices are more reliant on BPS increases, including cash increases, than on EPS" would be considered.</li>
<li>Investors may believe that Japanese management still needs more time to use cash effectively, and evaluate companies based on their BPS, which indicates a movement toward improved cash flow.</li>
</ul>


EPS and BPS had run in parallel since June 2022, but BPS has accelerated at a more rapid pace since May 2023, and TOPIX has risen sharply since April 2023.
Since TOPIX is more correlated with BPS than EPS, the hypothesis that "stock prices are more reliant on BPS increases, including cash increases, than on EPS" would be considered.
Investors may believe that Japanese management still needs more time to use cash effectively, and evaluate companies based on their BPS, which indicates a movement toward improved cash flow.


Investors Are Valuing Equities Thinking that Managers Are Still Slow to Put Cash to Good Use?

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Japan - Shorts & Positioning on Passive Sells

8 stocks in Japan will have big passive selling at the close on 29 February. Short interest has increased on the stocks and cumulative excess...

Brian Freitas

Corporate Governance in Japan Is Improving, but Has yet to Take Steps to Create Value

I would like to discuss how much progress has been made in corporate governance initiatives by listed companies during the year 2023.

Metrical Inc

Shareholder Proposals Likely a Focus at 2024 AGM Are ROE, P/B, and Parent-Subsidiary Listings

I would like to discuss the issues on the December 27 Nikkei article, "Shareholder Proposals, 344 in the Highest Number in 2023, Activist Investors...

Metrical Inc

Investors Are Valuing Equities Thinking that Managers Are Still Slow to Put Cash to Good Use?

I would like to discuss the issues on the December 26 Nikkei article, "Prime Listed Companies' Earnings Per Share at Record High."

Metrical Inc