Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&amp;P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.</li><li>My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.</li><li>The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.</li></ul>

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&amp;P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Here Are My Top Macro Ideas

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)