Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include <strong>Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities</strong>.</p>

We continue to be encouraged by market dynamics that are supportive of an ongoing equity bull market. Additionally, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns on the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, &amp; EAFE). As a result, our outlook remains bullish.  In this report we show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, but still have plenty of attractive stocks. The stocks highlighted hail from a variety of countries. Sectors covered include Services, Communications, Staples, Financials, and Utilities.

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Friday saw a notable spike in JPY vols on news of President Trump's positive COVID-19 test</li>
<li>Aside from traditional risk-off JPY reflex, this move followed weeks of "election hedge" discussions with multiple strategists pointing to cheap Yen-complex vols as screening most attractively in the event of prolonged US election turmoil</li>
<li>JPY has been gently trending higher for months, as CFTC data shows asset manager net speculative positioning at multi-year highs; while not egregious, JPY spec positioning now screens roughly +1x STDEV above normal</li>
<li>Last month our text mining saw fading bullishness on JPY, but our diffusion index has moved higher in the past month as we see a sharp decline in discussions of negative JPY drivers in the global financial media</li>
<li>On a short-term basis, there are many convenient excuses to be long JPY into the US elections, as the currency is persistently undervalued in real effective terms, historically outperforms during risk-off phases, JPY vols remain acceptably low (debatable after Friday), and optimism on Japan has lingered through the Suga transition thus far</li>
<li>Mid- and longer-term, Suga's pro-consumer reforms focused on price cuts in telecom &amp; pharma may require elevated fiscal stimulus to counter potentially accelerated deflationary optics, pressuring JPY; and the traditional USD/JPY risk function appears to be eroding as evidenced in JPY/equities correlations</li>
<li>We suspect continued JPY upside risks to year-end, but renewed equity-friendly pressure on JPY may resume in 2021</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Friday saw a notable spike in JPY vols on news of President Trump's positive COVID-19 test
Aside from traditional risk-off JPY reflex, this move followed weeks of "election hedge" discussions with multiple strategists pointing to cheap Yen-complex vols as screening most attractively in the event of prolonged US election turmoil
JPY has been gently trending higher for months, as CFTC data shows asset manager net speculative positioning at multi-year highs; while not egregious, JPY spec positioning now screens roughly +1x STDEV above normal
Last month our text mining saw fading bullishness on JPY, but our diffusion index has moved higher in the past month as we see a sharp decline in discussions of negative JPY drivers in the global financial media
On a short-term basis, there are many convenient excuses to be long JPY into the US elections, as the currency is persistently undervalued in real effective terms, historically outperforms during risk-off phases, JPY vols remain acceptably low (debatable after Friday), and optimism on Japan has lingered through the Suga transition thus far
Mid- and longer-term, Suga's pro-consumer reforms focused on price cuts in telecom &amp; pharma may require elevated fiscal stimulus to counter potentially accelerated deflationary optics, pressuring JPY; and the traditional USD/JPY risk function appears to be eroding as evidenced in JPY/equities correlations
We suspect continued JPY upside risks to year-end, but renewed equity-friendly pressure on JPY may resume in 2021
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots: JPY Vols Jump On Trump News, Evidence A Convenient US Election Hedge Is Crowding Fast

<p>The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s <strong>EURO STOXX 50</strong> and Japan’s <strong>TOPIX </strong>have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: <strong>Services, Communications, Industrials, </strong>and <strong>Transportation.</strong></p>

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. This week we are focusing on Consumer Staples and Health Care, two Sectors that have been less-loved over the past several months. We also highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Technology, Financials, Real Estate, Communications, and Utilities.</p>

We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. This week we are focusing on Consumer Staples and Health Care, two Sectors that have been less-loved over the past several months. We also highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Technology, Financials, Real Estate, Communications, and Utilities.

EM Equities At New Highs Despite Some Caution Signs

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Technical Analysis

<p>Asia's strong horses are showing weakening stances that are vulnerable to follow the bear camp lower from key sell resistance points. US tech hangs in the balance and have driven home divergences that warn of a top cycle in tech (TSMC and SEC stall) and in risk in late July/early August into what is a seasonally weak period.</p><div>Top long conviction in A50/H shares (wobble to sell early), ASX (momentum struggle) and Taiwan (RSI problems with TSMC froth). India transitioning from less bullish to the bear camp as banks begin to show cracks.</div><div></div><div>Top short conviction in Nikkei/TOPIX, Singapore and Malaysia (pressuring 1,615 pivot resistance). Korea testing top of range with some noise. HSI short a bounce.</div><div></div><div>A DXY low near 93 and dollar low in Asia will act as a key input for a risk turn. This webcast touches on the DXY, USD/KRW and USD/SGD. Pockets are USD strength are already well established versus the THB, IDR, INR with MYR next in line as well as USD/CNH troughing.</div>

Asia's strong horses are showing weakening stances that are vulnerable to follow the bear camp lower from key sell resistance points. US tech hangs in the balance and have driven home divergences that warn of a top cycle in tech (TSMC and SEC stall) and in risk in late July/early August into what is a seasonally weak period.Top long conviction in A50/H shares (wobble to sell early), ASX (momentum struggle) and Taiwan (RSI problems with TSMC froth). India transitioning from less bullish to the bear camp as banks begin to show cracks.Top short conviction in Nikkei/TOPIX, Singapore and Malaysia (pressuring 1,615 pivot resistance). Korea testing top of range with some noise. HSI short a bounce.A DXY low near 93 and dollar low in Asia will act as a key input for a risk turn. This webcast touches on the DXY, USD/KRW and USD/SGD. Pockets are USD strength are already well established versus the THB, IDR, INR with MYR next in line as well as USD/CNH troughing.

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Global Equity Strategy: Market Dynamics Remain Positive, And So Are We

We show some love to various Sectors that have not been big attention-grabbers for us in recent months, including Services, Communications,...

Vermilion Research

TMI Snapshots: JPY Vols Jump On Trump News, Evidence A Convenient US Election Hedge Is Crowding Fast

Friday saw a notable spike in JPY vols following widespread

Elan Gore

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

EM Equities At New Highs Despite Some Caution Signs

We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying...

Vermilion Research

Asia Short Bets as Strong Horses Bend

Asia's strong horses are showing weakening stances that are vulnerable to follow the bear camp lower from key sell resistance points. US tech hangs...

Thomas Schroeder