Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.

Adding to last week’s concerns reiterated above, additional developments which have further dampened our overall outlook include a breakdown in the global Discretionary vs. Staples ratio, price and RS deterioration for mainland China, Germany, and European Technology, and new lows in the NASDAQ Global Automobile index. Aside from Germany, other major indexes remain above support in Europe/UK and Japan.  We highlight a number of attractive opportunities in “defensive” Financials including electronic exchanges/markets, insurance, commercial/consumer financing, and select asset managers.

Adding to last week’s concerns reiterated above, additional developments which have further dampened our overall outlook include a breakdown in the global Discretionary vs. Staples ratio, price and RS deterioration for mainland China, Germany, and European Technology, and new lows in the NASDAQ Global Automobile index. Aside from Germany, other major indexes remain above support in Europe/UK and Japan.  We highlight a number of attractive opportunities in “defensive” Financials including electronic exchanges/markets, insurance, commercial/consumer financing, and select asset managers.

Global Equity Strategy: More Cracks Begin to Show

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain near logical resistance as investors await monetary policy decisions from the ECB and Federal Reserve. Considering overhead resistance and continued mixed economic and market signals, we remain squarely in the neutral camp.  We outline important technical levels across major indexes and highlight attractive opportunities within the Manufacturing, Transportation, and Materials Sectors, most of which hail from Europe and Japan.

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain near logical resistance as investors await monetary policy decisions from the ECB and Federal Reserve. Considering overhead resistance and continued mixed economic and market signals, we remain squarely in the neutral camp.  We outline important technical levels across major indexes and highlight attractive opportunities within the Manufacturing, Transportation, and Materials Sectors, most of which hail from Europe and Japan.

Global Equity Strategy: Overhead Resistance Looms

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan's economy is bifurcating. It is a reasonable bet that the stock market will follow suit. Japan is a terrible market for the passive investor, but a great one for the active investor. There's no reason to think that this is about to change.

Japan's economy is bifurcating. It is a reasonable bet that the stock market will follow suit. Japan is a terrible market for the passive investor, but a great one for the active investor. There's no reason to think that this is about to change.

PSA's Stock / Sector Strategy for H2 2019 for Japanese Equities

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Guarded Optimism

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: More Cracks Begin to Show

Adding to last week’s concerns reiterated above, additional developments which have further dampened our overall outlook include a breakdown in the...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Overhead Resistance Looms

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain near logical resistance as investors await monetary policy decisions from the ECB...

Vermilion Research

PSA's Stock / Sector Strategy for H2 2019 for Japanese Equities

Japan's economy is bifurcating. It is a reasonable bet that the stock market will follow suit. Japan is a terrible market for the passive investor,...

Pelham Smithers Associates