Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are testing 52-week lows as prices have been consolidating over the last 1-2 months. Our outlook for global equities remains extremely cautious and we expect downward consolidation to continue. Equity prices will need to show signs of bottoming in order for this outlook to change.  In our December International Strategy, we explore various themes which lead to our cautious outlook, provide a technical appraisal of major world markets, explore a possible bottom in the Chinese market, and highlight attractive setups in the Consumer Staples, Communications, Health Care, and Utilities Sectors.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are testing 52-week lows as prices have been consolidating over the last 1-2 months. Our outlook for global equities remains extremely cautious and we expect downward consolidation to continue. Equity prices will need to show signs of bottoming in order for this outlook to change.  In our December International Strategy, we explore various themes which lead to our cautious outlook, provide a technical appraisal of major world markets, explore a possible bottom in the Chinese market, and highlight attractive setups in the Consumer Staples, Communications, Health Care, and Utilities Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Cautious Outlook Intact; Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

If and when the downturn does come, it is likely to be painful around the world. Based on past experience it is likely to be very painful in Japan, where earnings have proven to be much more vulnerable than elsewhere in a downturn. How relevant, though, is past experience with all the changes in Japan, and can Japan Inc protect earnings on the downside?

If and when the downturn does come, it is likely to be painful around the world. Based on past experience it is likely to be very painful in Japan, where earnings have proven to be much more vulnerable than elsewhere in a downturn. How relevant, though, is past experience with all the changes in Japan, and can Japan Inc protect earnings on the downside?

Can Japan Inc Protect Earnings on the Downside?

Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term countertrend rallies. In today’s report we provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight still attractive opportunities within: RETS, utilities and Health care.

Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term countertrend rallies. In today’s report we provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight still attractive opportunities within: RETS, utilities and Health care.

Global Markets Outlook: Maintain Defensive Posture

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

IN THE RED - The Japanese equity market as measured by our All Market Composite has declined by 5.8% in a week, by 11.6 in a month and is now down 7.2% over one year. All sectors are now lower over one month with the traditionally defensive sectors holding up best. Global cyclicals sectors and the more overpriced domestic growth sectors have been the major underperformers. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/067/780/original/2018-10-26_07-43-37.png?1540507433" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="67780"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-highlight">OVERSOLD - In the short term, Japanese equities are now clearly oversold, however, does this represent a longer-term buying opportunity?</div>

IN THE RED - The Japanese equity market as measured by our All Market Composite has declined by 5.8% in a week, by 11.6 in a month and is now down 7.2% over one year. All sectors are now lower over one month with the traditionally defensive sectors holding up best. Global cyclicals sectors and the more overpriced domestic growth sectors have been the major underperformers. Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERSOLD - In the short term, Japanese equities are now clearly oversold, however, does this represent a longer-term buying opportunity?

Japan: Market Update - Oversold, However....

In our October International Strategy, we provide a synopsis on current market conditions around the globe, and explore the following themes in further detail:<ul>
<li>Supporting our cautious outlook, cyclical and growth Sectors are breaking down on the international front - namely Technology and Consumer Discretionary.  </li>
<li>Overweight Norway.</li>
<li>Price support holding in Japan as RS improves. </li>
<li>Health Care remains attractive, especially defensive pharma Groups within Japan and Europe.</li>
</ul>

In our October International Strategy, we provide a synopsis on current market conditions around the globe, and explore the following themes in further detail:
Supporting our cautious outlook, cyclical and growth Sectors are breaking down on the international front - namely Technology and Consumer Discretionary.  
Overweight Norway.
Price support holding in Japan as RS improves. 
Health Care remains attractive, especially defensive pharma Groups within Japan and Europe.


Global Equity Strategy: Market Deterioration Continues; Cyclical & Growth Sectors Breaking Down

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Global Equity Strategy: Cautious Outlook Intact; Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are testing 52-week lows as prices have been consolidating over the last 1-2 months. Our outlook for global equities...

Vermilion Research

Can Japan Inc Protect Earnings on the Downside?

If and when the downturn does come, it is likely to be painful around the world. Based on past experience it is likely to be very painful in Japan,...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Global Markets Outlook: Maintain Defensive Posture

Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term...

Vermilion Research

Japan: Market Update - Oversold, However....

IN THE RED - The Japanese equity market as measured by our All Market Composite has declined by 5.8% in a week, by 11.6 in a month and is now down...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Market Deterioration Continues; Cyclical & Growth Sectors Breaking Down

In our October International Strategy, we provide a synopsis on current market conditions around the globe, and explore the following themes in...

Vermilion Research