'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>- have been excluded from this analysis.

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/134/986/original/2020-05-22_06-35-57.png?1590096982" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="134986"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>In the DETAIL below, we shall review yesterday's announcements:-<div><ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 54 results announcements was 18:7:29. The average change in Results Score was -2.1.</li>
<li>For the 24 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 10:1:13, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -3.3. Only one-third of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. </li>
<li>104 companies will announce results today, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener">FUJIFILM (4901 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meiji-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15996:1" rel="noopener">Meiji (2269 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3357:1" rel="noopener">Tokyu (9005 JP)</a>.  </li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall review yesterday's announcements:-
The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 54 results announcements was 18:7:29. The average change in Results Score was -2.1.
For the 24 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 10:1:13, and the average Forecast/Revision Score was -3.3. Only one-third of companies reporting full-year results chose to make current year forecasts. 
104 companies will announce results today, including FUJIFILM (4901 JP), Meiji (2269 JP), and Tokyu (9005 JP).  


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 21st May - Skylark, Resorttrust, Makita

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

As expected, e-commerce continues to grow strongly in Japan even if penetration rates are lower than the US and China.
Already close to 40% of all e-commerce transactions take place through smartphones and continued growth of this one touchpoint will spur faster growth in the online channel as a whole.
Penetration remains low in food but 2018 saw large jumps in EC share for media, office supplies and consumer electronics.

As expected, e-commerce continues to grow strongly in Japan even if penetration rates are lower than the US and China.
Already close to 40% of all e-commerce transactions take place through smartphones and continued growth of this one touchpoint will spur faster growth in the online channel as a whole.
Penetration remains low in food but 2018 saw large jumps in EC share for media, office supplies and consumer electronics.

Japan's E-Commerce Sector Increases Retail Share in 2018-19

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>MSCI announced the quarterly review results after market close. As the cycle enters implementation, this note updates the stock setup.</li>
<li>ADDs entered implementation after a large pre-announcement move and still carry first-week give-back risk.</li>
<li>DELETEs were mild before implementation, but low-velocity DELETEs retain the weakest historical post-implementation profile.</li>
</ul>


MSCI announced the quarterly review results after market close. As the cycle enters implementation, this note updates the stock setup.
ADDs entered implementation after a large pre-announcement move and still carry first-week give-back risk.
DELETEs were mild before implementation, but low-velocity DELETEs retain the weakest historical post-implementation profile.


MS-Japan June 2026 Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

The average growth among the top 100 shopping centres (SCs) in Japan in 2017-18 was 2.6% compared to 2.3% for the shopping centre market overall.
The top 100 SCs had average sales densities of ¥86,230 per sqm per month, compared to ¥50,833 per sqm per month for the sector overall, showing the stark contrast in performance between the best SCs (and the better developers) and the rest.
The improvement in sales by outlet malls after a retreat in 2016-17 was the big story in SC retailing last year – among the top 30 SCs by sales growth, 10 were outlet malls and all posted growth of more than 5% compared to just a single SC in 2016.
A number of developers look set to continue to perform better compared to the SC sector overall, at least in terms of tenant revenues and shopping centre operating profits: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1">Aeon (8267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5262" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1">Aeon Mall (8905 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/565" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/566" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:566:1">Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP)</a> as well as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14271" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1">East Japan Railway (9020 JP)</a> – 12 of the top 30 most efficient SCs in the country are operated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14271" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1">East Japan Railway</a>.

The average growth among the top 100 shopping centres (SCs) in Japan in 2017-18 was 2.6% compared to 2.3% for the shopping centre market overall.
The top 100 SCs had average sales densities of ¥86,230 per sqm per month, compared to ¥50,833 per sqm per month for the sector overall, showing the stark contrast in performance between the best SCs (and the better developers) and the rest.
The improvement in sales by outlet malls after a retreat in 2016-17 was the big story in SC retailing last year – among the top 30 SCs by sales growth, 10 were outlet malls and all posted growth of more than 5% compared to just a single SC in 2016.
A number of developers look set to continue to perform better compared to the SC sector overall, at least in terms of tenant revenues and shopping centre operating profits: Aeon (8267 JP), Aeon Mall (8905 JP), Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP), and Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP) as well as East Japan Railway (9020 JP) – 12 of the top 30 most efficient SCs in the country are operated by East Japan Railway.

Japan's Top 100 Shopping Centres Outperforming: Who Owns What

Japan

TOKYU CORPORATION provides passenger rail transportation, bus transportation, truckload services, and air transportation serving the Tokyo and its surrounding areas.  The Company operates department stores, real estate leasing, and hotel businesses.  Through its subsidiaries, Tokyu offers leisure-related services such as travel agents, theaters. golf, and rent car agents.

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Tokyu Corp (9005 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 21st May - Skylark, Resorttrust, Makita

In the DETAIL below, we shall review yesterday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 54 results announcements was...

Campbell Gunn

MS-Japan June 2026 Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

MS-Japan enters the implementation phase on 1 June 2026. We update stock performance and discuss implementation trades.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan's Top 100 Shopping Centres Outperforming: Who Owns What

The average growth among the top 100 shopping centres (SCs) in Japan in 2017-18 was 2.6% compared to 2.3% for the shopping centre market...

Michael Causton

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52-week Range

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P/E

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🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 21st May - Skylark, Resorttrust, Makita

In the DETAIL below, we shall review yesterday's announcements:- The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 54 results announcements was...

Campbell Gunn

Japan's E-Commerce Sector Increases Retail Share in 2018-19

As expected, e-commerce continues to grow strongly in Japan even if penetration rates are lower than the US and China. Already close to 40% of all...

Michael Causton

MS-Japan June 2026 Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

MS-Japan enters the implementation phase on 1 June 2026. We update stock performance and discuss implementation trades.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan's Top 100 Shopping Centres Outperforming: Who Owns What

The average growth among the top 100 shopping centres (SCs) in Japan in 2017-18 was 2.6% compared to 2.3% for the shopping centre market...

Michael Causton