Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In mid-January, the TSE announced a "name-and-shame" list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】.  But they did not actually shame.</li>
<li>The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We have the links. On Feb 1, the TSE put out a <strong><a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1020/u5j7e50000001bqd-att/240201en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a></strong> and set of <strong><a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1020/u5j7e50000001bqd-att/240201en2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">case studies</a>.</strong>
</li>
<li>Designed to present the "Investor's Point of View", they have unexpectedly worthwhile advice/commentary for corporates. The TSE appears to be trying hard to prompt serious consideration rather than box-ticking.</li>
</ul>


In mid-January, the TSE announced a "name-and-shame" list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】.  But they did not actually shame.
The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We have the links. On Feb 1, the TSE put out a presentation and set of case studies.

Designed to present the "Investor's Point of View", they have unexpectedly worthwhile advice/commentary for corporates. The TSE appears to be trying hard to prompt serious consideration rather than box-ticking.


Updated Tool for TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" And New Presentation/CaseStudies

<ul>
<li>In July the BOJ lifted the YCC range to allow flexibility at 0.5% and a red line at 1.0%. Today it moved the "reference" to 1.0% with no red line.</li>
<li>This allows 10yr yields to move higher, but the Board's insistence on negative rates and YCC staying in place tells you steeper for longer makes shorting long JGBs tough.</li>
<li>The move today helps encourage the market mechanism to take control of dampening volatility, the same way it did when the BOJ stepped away from ETF buying in 2021.</li>
</ul>


In July the BOJ lifted the YCC range to allow flexibility at 0.5% and a red line at 1.0%. Today it moved the "reference" to 1.0% with no red line.
This allows 10yr yields to move higher, but the Board's insistence on negative rates and YCC staying in place tells you steeper for longer makes shorting long JGBs tough.
The move today helps encourage the market mechanism to take control of dampening volatility, the same way it did when the BOJ stepped away from ETF buying in 2021.


Ueda's BOJ Looking Like Ueda's Pre-BOJ Opinions, but Normalisation Is "A Work in Progress."

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It is time for one of the most important Bank of Japan meetings in decades.</li>
<li>Markets remain unprepared for a move, despite the pre-warning of a higher inflation forecast. Here is our preview!</li>
<li>It is a no-brainer for the BoJ to increase the inflation forecast given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision? The short answer is yes. </li>
</ul>


It is time for one of the most important Bank of Japan meetings in decades.
Markets remain unprepared for a move, despite the pre-warning of a higher inflation forecast. Here is our preview!
It is a no-brainer for the BoJ to increase the inflation forecast given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision? The short answer is yes. 


Japan Watch: Markets Are Unprepared for BoJ Action

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>The Bank of Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place</li>
<li>The JPY's only hope is a US recession and lower US interest rates</li>
<li>Japan's inflation problem to resume as imported inflation bites into purchasing power once again</li>
</ul>


The Bank of Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place
The JPY's only hope is a US recession and lower US interest rates
Japan's inflation problem to resume as imported inflation bites into purchasing power once again


<ul>
<li>Commercial Real Estate issues, the dog that didn't bark in 2023, is back.</li>
<li>Unlike March 2023, this cannot be fixed by liquidity injections alone.</li>
<li>US employment data surprises on the upside. Further Government manipulation?</li>
</ul>


Commercial Real Estate issues, the dog that didn't bark in 2023, is back.
Unlike March 2023, this cannot be fixed by liquidity injections alone.
US employment data surprises on the upside. Further Government manipulation?


Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

Japan

TOPIX-Banks Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all the banks listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and is one of the 33 industry sectors of the TOPIX Index (TPX). The index was developed with a base value of 1000 as of January 6, 1992. The parent index is TPX.

TOPIX-Banks Index (TPNBNK INDEX)

Updated Tool for TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" And New Presentation/CaseStudies

The TSE update for this will come out in a day or two. There will be some commentary on the update. It is not meaningful yet, mostly because...

Travis Lundy

Ueda's BOJ Looking Like Ueda's Pre-BOJ Opinions, but Normalisation Is "A Work in Progress."

The BOJ moved to allow 10yr yields to climb higher, allowing an explicit opportunity for the curve to steepen if US policy tightens. This could...

Travis Lundy

Japan Watch: Markets Are Unprepared for BoJ Action

It is time for one of the most important Bank of Japan meetings in decades. Markets remain unprepared for a move, despite the pre-warning of a...

Steno Research

Whither the Yen?

The Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place as a servicing a high debt load takes preference over inflation and weak consumption. JPY...

Rikki Malik

Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...

Rikki Malik

Updated Tool for TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" And New Presentation/CaseStudies

The TSE update for this will come out in a day or two. There will be some commentary on the update. It is not meaningful yet, mostly because...

Travis Lundy

Ueda's BOJ Looking Like Ueda's Pre-BOJ Opinions, but Normalisation Is "A Work in Progress."

The BOJ moved to allow 10yr yields to climb higher, allowing an explicit opportunity for the curve to steepen if US policy tightens. This could...

Travis Lundy

Japan Watch: Markets Are Unprepared for BoJ Action

It is time for one of the most important Bank of Japan meetings in decades. Markets remain unprepared for a move, despite the pre-warning of a...

Steno Research

Whither the Yen?

​The Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place as a servicing a high debt load takes preference over inflation and weak consumption. JPY...

Rikki Malik

Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

​Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...

Rikki Malik

The Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place as a servicing a high debt load takes preference over inflation and weak consumption. JPY...

Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...