Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Commercial Real Estate issues, the dog that didn't bark in 2023, is back.</li>
<li>Unlike March 2023, this cannot be fixed by liquidity injections alone.</li>
<li>US employment data surprises on the upside. Further Government manipulation?</li>
</ul>


Commercial Real Estate issues, the dog that didn't bark in 2023, is back.
Unlike March 2023, this cannot be fixed by liquidity injections alone.
US employment data surprises on the upside. Further Government manipulation?


Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.</li><li>The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.</li><li>That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! What a week.The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic data has been abysmal.That cocktail has so far allowed the everything rally to thrive in a way we haven’t seen in quarters, but the feedback loop introduced by the big central banks may limit the scope of the bear market rally.

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In July the BOJ lifted the YCC range to allow flexibility at 0.5% and a red line at 1.0%. Today it moved the "reference" to 1.0% with no red line.</li>
<li>This allows 10yr yields to move higher, but the Board's insistence on negative rates and YCC staying in place tells you steeper for longer makes shorting long JGBs tough.</li>
<li>The move today helps encourage the market mechanism to take control of dampening volatility, the same way it did when the BOJ stepped away from ETF buying in 2021.</li>
</ul>


In July the BOJ lifted the YCC range to allow flexibility at 0.5% and a red line at 1.0%. Today it moved the "reference" to 1.0% with no red line.
This allows 10yr yields to move higher, but the Board's insistence on negative rates and YCC staying in place tells you steeper for longer makes shorting long JGBs tough.
The move today helps encourage the market mechanism to take control of dampening volatility, the same way it did when the BOJ stepped away from ETF buying in 2021.


Ueda's BOJ Looking Like Ueda's Pre-BOJ Opinions, but Normalisation Is "A Work in Progress."

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> aims to sell around US$9bn worth of  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, trimming its stake by a third.</li>
<li>We have looked at the deal in our previous notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-bank-placement-deal-structure-past-deals-index-buyback" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:96666" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank Placement - Deal Structure, past Deals, Index, Buyback</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-bank-placement-misbehaving-still-has-time-to-correct-a-look-at-past-deals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97201" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank Placement - Misbehaving</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note and have a look at the post pricing performance of a few more deals.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) aims to sell around US$9bn worth of  Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake by a third.
We have looked at the deal in our previous notes, Japan Post Bank Placement - Deal Structure, past Deals, Index, Buyback and Japan Post Bank Placement - Misbehaving. 
In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note and have a look at the post pricing performance of a few more deals.


Japan Post Bank Placement -  Still Misbehaving - Post-Pricing Performance of Some More Deals

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

<ul>
<li>This is an opinion piece that attempts to look at the sustainability of policies set out by the Bank of Japan, namely the yield curve control.</li>
<li>There seems to be a growing risk that long end yields are set to rise further, testing the BoJ's resolve.</li>
<li>Indications are already there in the interest rate curves and the performance of Japanese Banks. A further report will follow, highlighting relevant charts and trade ideas</li>
</ul>


This is an opinion piece that attempts to look at the sustainability of policies set out by the Bank of Japan, namely the yield curve control.
There seems to be a growing risk that long end yields are set to rise further, testing the BoJ's resolve.
Indications are already there in the interest rate curves and the performance of Japanese Banks. A further report will follow, highlighting relevant charts and trade ideas


Japan

TOPIX-Banks Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all the banks listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and is one of the 33 industry sectors of the TOPIX Index (TPX). The index was developed with a base value of 1000 as of January 6, 1992. The parent index is TPX.

TOPIX Banks Index (TPNBNK INDEX)

Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...

Rikki Malik

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic...

Steno Research

Ueda's BOJ Looking Like Ueda's Pre-BOJ Opinions, but Normalisation Is "A Work in Progress."

The BOJ moved to allow 10yr yields to climb higher, allowing an explicit opportunity for the curve to steepen if US policy tightens. This could...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post Bank Placement - Still Misbehaving - Post-Pricing Performance of Some More Deals

Japan Post Holdings aims to sell around US$9bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake by a third. In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

Playing with Fire – FX & Rates, Japan

Is the Bank of Japan immune in a world that sees rising consumer prices? Should they continue to pursue a policy that only seems to weaken their...

Shyam Devani

Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

​Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...

Rikki Malik

Steno Signals #72 – When a Recession Meets a Melt-Up in Equities and Bonds

The BoJ no longer has a firm guidance towards higher 10yr bond yields, the Fed accepted higher long bond yields as an excuse to pause and economic...

Steno Research

Ueda's BOJ Looking Like Ueda's Pre-BOJ Opinions, but Normalisation Is "A Work in Progress."

The BOJ moved to allow 10yr yields to climb higher, allowing an explicit opportunity for the curve to steepen if US policy tightens. This could...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post Bank Placement - Still Misbehaving - Post-Pricing Performance of Some More Deals

Japan Post Holdings aims to sell around US$9bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake by a third. In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

Playing with Fire – FX & Rates, Japan

Is the Bank of Japan immune in a world that sees rising consumer prices? Should they continue to pursue a policy that only seems to weaken their...

Shyam Devani

Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...