Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since Toshiba reported lacklustre earnings and guidance, there has been a steady flow of articles in the press about the privatisation process going on behind the scenes.</li>
<li>On 25 March, Toshiba let it be known a privatisation process would start. On 31 March, Bain gave notice it would participate. Toshiba has been in talks since 21 April</li>
<li>First round bids were due 30 May, and 10 total submissions were made, with 8 privatisation proposals proffered. Now we wait...</li>
</ul>


Since Toshiba reported lacklustre earnings and guidance, there has been a steady flow of articles in the press about the privatisation process going on behind the scenes.
On 25 March, Toshiba let it be known a privatisation process would start. On 31 March, Bain gave notice it would participate. Toshiba has been in talks since 21 April
First round bids were due 30 May, and 10 total submissions were made, with 8 privatisation proposals proffered. Now we wait...


Toshiba (6502) - Now We Have the First Rounds Bids In, And We Wait, But It's Top of Range

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Toshiba provided an update today on its management policy and the status of discussions with potential investors. </li>
<li>The management targets unveiled looked plausible but rather optimistic while the only real new information on the potential privatisation was that 8 bids had been submitted. </li>
<li>In the end the most interesting takeaway for us was that Toshiba Tec would play a key role in Toshiba’s data business.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba provided an update today on its management policy and the status of discussions with potential investors. 
The management targets unveiled looked plausible but rather optimistic while the only real new information on the potential privatisation was that 8 bids had been submitted. 
In the end the most interesting takeaway for us was that Toshiba Tec would play a key role in Toshiba’s data business.


Toshiba – Key Takeaway Is Toshiba Tec’s Attractiveness

<ul>
<li>After 14 months of Strategic Review and preparation for a Demerger of its generation and distribution businesses, the Board has <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220530/pdf/459fg181kqf4tl.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dropped the Demerger Proposal</a> in face of shareholder opposition.</li>
<li>While it isn't clear exactly how much opposition there was, Michael Cannon-Brookes held 11+% and General Meetings have garnered 50-75% of investors for a vote which needed 75% approval.</li>
<li>CEO and Chair have announced their resignations, two other board members will leave, and now the Board will start another strategic review using preparation at hand.</li>
</ul>


After 14 months of Strategic Review and preparation for a Demerger of its generation and distribution businesses, the Board has dropped the Demerger Proposal in face of shareholder opposition.
While it isn't clear exactly how much opposition there was, Michael Cannon-Brookes held 11+% and General Meetings have garnered 50-75% of investors for a vote which needed 75% approval.
CEO and Chair have announced their resignations, two other board members will leave, and now the Board will start another strategic review using preparation at hand.


AGL Drops Demerger Proposal - Back To Square Two

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.</li>
<li>We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.</li>
</ul>


The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.
Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.
We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.


Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team has suggested a methodology change to the Nikkei 225 Average.</li>
<li>It involves capping stocks, creating a method for re-weighting once capped then stocks fall, and they recommend changing to a semi-annual Periodic Review - twice a year rather than once.</li>
<li>More interestingly, they also change the "High Liquidity" definition to be related to traded value not volume, which starts to favour higher-market cap stocks with more shares out.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Index Team has suggested a methodology change to the Nikkei 225 Average.
It involves capping stocks, creating a method for re-weighting once capped then stocks fall, and they recommend changing to a semi-annual Periodic Review - twice a year rather than once.
More interestingly, they also change the "High Liquidity" definition to be related to traded value not volume, which starts to favour higher-market cap stocks with more shares out.


Nikkei 225 Methodology Change. Again. This Time Better But Still Not Good Enough

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba (6502) - Now We Have the First Rounds Bids In, And We Wait, But It's Top of Range

Toshiba today announced a comprehensive deck with a Management Policy update, which is a very interesting read. They also announced they had...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – Key Takeaway Is Toshiba Tec’s Attractiveness

Toshiba's presentation today offered little new aside from rather optimistic "LT" targets but we believe it highlighted the enormous strategic...

Mio Kato

AGL Drops Demerger Proposal - Back To Square Two

AGL has dropped its Demerger proposal in the face of fears it wouldn't get 75% of a low-turnout vote. Chair + CEO have resigned on a forward basis....

Travis Lundy

Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

The $DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while China $MCHI and China Internet $KWEB are currently testing their respective multi-month...

Vermilion Research

Nikkei 225 Methodology Change. Again. This Time Better But Still Not Good Enough

The Nikkei proposes changes to the Nikkei 225 methodology. There is a cap, a cap re-mark, and a move to twice-annual reviews. And there is also a...

Travis Lundy

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