IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> reports FY2022 results on 12 May. Since the announcement of Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share, there have been no progress updates. </li>
<li>The spread to the offer is currently 4.2%, suggesting a reasonable probability of success. However, the offer's success ultimately depends on shareholder backing, particularly from the activists on the register.</li>
<li>Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers.</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) reports FY2022 results on 12 May. Since the announcement of Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share, there have been no progress updates. 
The spread to the offer is currently 4.2%, suggesting a reasonable probability of success. However, the offer's success ultimately depends on shareholder backing, particularly from the activists on the register.
Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>We believe Kioxia’s results present a significant risk to financing for JIP’s Toshiba bid. </li>
<li>Recent commentary from companies increasingly points to the potential for an L-shaped recovery rather than a U-shaped one. </li>
<li>In addition, if conditions remain as challenging as they have been or worsen it is not inconceivable for Kioxia to require more capital.</li>
</ul>


We believe Kioxia’s results present a significant risk to financing for JIP’s Toshiba bid. 
Recent commentary from companies increasingly points to the potential for an L-shaped recovery rather than a U-shaped one. 
In addition, if conditions remain as challenging as they have been or worsen it is not inconceivable for Kioxia to require more capital.


<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penguin-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10190:1" rel="noopener">Penguin International (PBS SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcland-service-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2392:1" rel="noopener">Arcland Service (3085 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads 111 Inc (YI US), Estia Health (EHE AU), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK),Origin Energy (ORG AU), Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM).
Lowest spreads  Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Healius (HLS AU), Penguin International (PBS SP), Lian Beng (LBG SP), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU), Arcland Service (3085 JP).


Merger Arb Mondays (08 May) - Toshiba, AAG, Lian Beng, Penguin, Golden Energy, Estia

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> is ultimately quite skippable. While ¥4,620 seems like "the wrong price" over a 5-year period, it is not clear that is the wrong price now.  </li>
<li>Global military touches a new high. South Korean defence contractors, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-rotem-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1554:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS)</a>, are big beneficiaries.</li>
<li>Historically, the "event" which helps Murakami-san get out - with respect to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arclands-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10395:1" rel="noopener">Arclands Corporation (9842 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcland-service-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2392:1" rel="noopener">Arcland Service (3085 JP)</a> - is not one which is suitable for "normal" investors. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) is ultimately quite skippable. While ¥4,620 seems like "the wrong price" over a 5-year period, it is not clear that is the wrong price now.  
Global military touches a new high. South Korean defence contractors, such as Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS), are big beneficiaries.
Historically, the "event" which helps Murakami-san get out - with respect to Arclands Corporation (9842 JP)/Arcland Service (3085 JP) - is not one which is suitable for "normal" investors. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto

<ul>
<li>There are 39- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: the unconditional Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penguin-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10190:1" rel="noopener">Penguin International (PBS SP)</a> from its Chairman and Dymon Group.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 39- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: the unconditional Offer for Penguin International (PBS SP) from its Chairman and Dymon Group.
Key updates took place for Liontown Resources (LTR AU), AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Lian Beng (LBG SP), and Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, AAG Energy, Penguin, Lian Beng, Golden Energy

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the...

Arun George

Toshiba – Kioxia Could Be A Break Risk

We believe Kioxia’s results present a significant risk to financing for JIP’s Toshiba bid and that it is not inconceivable for Kioxia to require...

Mio Kato

Merger Arb Mondays (08 May) - Toshiba, AAG, Lian Beng, Penguin, Golden Energy, Estia

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (33.6%), Estia (14.1%), United Malt (13.9%), AAG Energy (13.5%), Origin Energy (5.2%), Metro Pacific...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, AAG Energy, Penguin, Lian Beng, Golden Energy

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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