Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>US base oils supply could stay tighter at start of Q3 2025 after plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets cuts availability in Q2 2025.</li><li>US base oils supply lags demand in April 2025 for third month, cutting stocks to eight-month low.</li><li>Persistent supply-shortfall triggers fastest drop in stocks over three-month period since September 2020, when US was in midst of Covid-related supply disruptions.</li></ul>

US base oils supply could stay tighter at start of Q3 2025 after plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets cuts availability in Q2 2025.US base oils supply lags demand in April 2025 for third month, cutting stocks to eight-month low.Persistent supply-shortfall triggers fastest drop in stocks over three-month period since September 2020, when US was in midst of Covid-related supply disruptions.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July

<ul><li>US base oils demand could stay cautious at time of year when buying interest typically slows.</li><li>Rise in base oils margins stays relatively muted in Q2 2025 even with tighter supply and seasonal pick-up in consumption.</li><li>Dynamic points to weaker-than-usual demand and sufficient supply to cover requirements.</li></ul>

US base oils demand could stay cautious at time of year when buying interest typically slows.Rise in base oils margins stays relatively muted in Q2 2025 even with tighter supply and seasonal pick-up in consumption.Dynamic points to weaker-than-usual demand and sufficient supply to cover requirements.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 July

<ul><li>Global base oils values mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, even as they remain down from recent highs in Q2 2025.</li><li>Firm base oils margins coincide with strong diesel premium to crude oil that incentivizes refiners to boost output of the motor fuel.</li><li>Any such move would likely impact light-grade base oils more than heavy grades, whose firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output of the product.</li></ul>

Global base oils values mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, even as they remain down from recent highs in Q2 2025.Firm base oils margins coincide with strong diesel premium to crude oil that incentivizes refiners to boost output of the motor fuel.Any such move would likely impact light-grade base oils more than heavy grades, whose firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output of the product.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July

<ul><li>US Group II export base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil starts Q3 2025 at slightly lower levels than at start of Q3 2024.</li><li>In Q3 2024, US base oils price premium to VGO extends rise after surging from end-Q1 2024.</li><li>US base oils price-premium to VGO extends surge in Q3 2024 even with less feasible arbitrage to outlets like Europe, Middle East and India.</li></ul>

US Group II export base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil starts Q3 2025 at slightly lower levels than at start of Q3 2024.In Q3 2024, US base oils price premium to VGO extends rise after surging from end-Q1 2024.US base oils price-premium to VGO extends surge in Q3 2024 even with less feasible arbitrage to outlets like Europe, Middle East and India.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 July

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 27/Jun, U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.8m barrels (vs. expectations of a 3.5m barrel decline). Gasoline stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>The EIA reported a 55 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 48 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 6.2% above the five-year average but 5.6% below year-ago levels.</li>
<li>BlackRock may offload its gas pipeline stake back to Aramco, while JP Morgan cut its 12-month PT on SLB and Goldman Sachs did the same for Halliburton.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 27/Jun, U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.8m barrels (vs. expectations of a 3.5m barrel decline). Gasoline stockpiles rose more than expected.
The EIA reported a 55 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 48 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 6.2% above the five-year average but 5.6% below year-ago levels.
BlackRock may offload its gas pipeline stake back to Aramco, while JP Morgan cut its 12-month PT on SLB and Goldman Sachs did the same for Halliburton.


[ETP 2025/27] WTI Volatile on Supply Risks; Henry Hub Slips on Softer Demand Outlook

France

TotalEnergies SE operates as an energy company. The Company produces, transports, and supplies crude oil, natural gas, and low carbon electricity, as well as refines petrochemical products. TotalEnergies owns and manages gasoline filling stations worldwide.

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TotalEnergies (TTE US)

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July

US base oils supply could stay tighter at start of Q3 2025 after plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets cuts availability in Q2...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 July

US base oils demand could stay cautious at time of year when buying interest typically slows. Rise in base oils margins stays relatively muted in...

Base Oil News

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July

Global base oils values mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, even as they remain down from recent highs in Q2 2025. Firm base...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 July

US Group II export base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil starts Q3 2025 at slightly lower levels than at start of Q3 2024. In Q3 2024, US base...

Base Oil News

[ETP 2025/27] WTI Volatile on Supply Risks; Henry Hub Slips on Softer Demand Outlook

US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, gasoline stockpiles increased, natural gas storage levels are above average but below last year, BlackRock...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July

US base oils supply could stay tighter at start of Q3 2025 after plant-maintenance work in domestic and overseas markets cuts availability in Q2...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 July

US base oils demand could stay cautious at time of year when buying interest typically slows. Rise in base oils margins stays relatively muted in...

Base Oil News

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July

Global base oils values mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, even as they remain down from recent highs in Q2 2025. Firm base...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 July

US Group II export base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil starts Q3 2025 at slightly lower levels than at start of Q3 2024. In Q3 2024, US base...

Base Oil News

[ETP 2025/27] WTI Volatile on Supply Risks; Henry Hub Slips on Softer Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, gasoline stockpiles increased, natural gas storage levels are above average but below last year, BlackRock...

Mint Finance

US crude inventories unexpectedly rose, gasoline stockpiles increased, natural gas storage levels are above average but below last year, BlackRock...