Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

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The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

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Commodities

<ul><li>The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with a smaller supply surplus than usual, as tighter Asian and Group III balances leave less supply available to absorb further disruptions</li></ul><ul><li>The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with less surplus than usual, after the third-quarter slowdown failed to produce the usual supply build.</li><li>China and India are putting more pressure on available barrels, with China's Group II balance tightening as India's demand extends its recovery.</li></ul>

The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with a smaller supply surplus than usual, as tighter Asian and Group III balances leave less supply available to absorb further disruptionsThe base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with less surplus than usual, after the third-quarter slowdown failed to produce the usual supply build.China and India are putting more pressure on available barrels, with China's Group II balance tightening as India's demand extends its recovery.

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 11 Sep '26

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TotalEnergies’ first quarter 2026 results reflect resilience amid geopolitical challenges, notably the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted approximately 15% of the company’s oil and gas production, amounting to 360,000 barrels per day.</li><li>Despite this, TotalEnergies reported a 20% increase in cash flow to $8.6 billion and a 40% rise in adjusted net income to $5.4 billion, supported by a 25% year-over-year increase in Brent crude prices averaging $81 per barrel during the quarter.</li><li>The company’s diversified asset base and integrated oil, gas, LNG, and electricity operations have facilitated strong operational performance and the ability to capitalize on market price volatility.</li></ul>

TotalEnergies’ first quarter 2026 results reflect resilience amid geopolitical challenges, notably the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted approximately 15% of the company’s oil and gas production, amounting to 360,000 barrels per day.Despite this, TotalEnergies reported a 20% increase in cash flow to $8.6 billion and a 40% rise in adjusted net income to $5.4 billion, supported by a 25% year-over-year increase in Brent crude prices averaging $81 per barrel during the quarter.The company’s diversified asset base and integrated oil, gas, LNG, and electricity operations have facilitated strong operational performance and the ability to capitalize on market price volatility.

TotalEnergies’ Amiral, Ratawi, and Tilenga Push Could Be a Game-Changer for Future Output!

<ul><li>Demand across the Americas rose 4%, as a rebound in US consumption offset a 7% drop in Latin America.</li><li>Europe's lubricants demand fell 4% in June, a second straight monthly decline, after rising for three straight months to April.</li><li>Asia's lubricants demand outside China fell 2% in June, a second straight monthly decline.</li></ul>

Demand across the Americas rose 4%, as a rebound in US consumption offset a 7% drop in Latin America.Europe's lubricants demand fell 4% in June, a second straight monthly decline, after rising for three straight months to April.Asia's lubricants demand outside China fell 2% in June, a second straight monthly decline.

Global Base Oils Supply Surplus Shrinks In June

<ul><li>Europe's supply held relatively steady at more than 370,000 tonnes, close to where it has stood for most of the past six months.</li><li>Americas supply dipped as plant maintenance in Brazil combined with US output falling to a 14-month low.</li><li>Middle East supply fell to its lowest level in more than seven years, with a slump in Group III shipments outweighing a rise in flows from Saudi Arabia.</li></ul>

Europe's supply held relatively steady at more than 370,000 tonnes, close to where it has stood for most of the past six months.Americas supply dipped as plant maintenance in Brazil combined with US output falling to a 14-month low.Middle East supply fell to its lowest level in more than seven years, with a slump in Group III shipments outweighing a rise in flows from Saudi Arabia.

Global Base Oils Supply Falls To 16-Month Low In June

<ul><li>TotalEnergies is facing a test that looks straightforward on the surface but becomes more complicated once the financial model is examined in detail.</li><li>The headline risk is clear: disruption tied to the Middle East has affected a meaningful part of the company’s operating footprint, including shutdowns or planned shutdowns in Qatar, Iraq, and offshore UAE, as well as damage at the Satorp refinery complex in Saudi Arabia.</li><li>That has put assets linked to roughly 15% of group output and around 10% of upstream cash flow under pressure, which is enough to draw immediate attention from both income-focused investors and global energy analysts.</li></ul>

TotalEnergies is facing a test that looks straightforward on the surface but becomes more complicated once the financial model is examined in detail.The headline risk is clear: disruption tied to the Middle East has affected a meaningful part of the company’s operating footprint, including shutdowns or planned shutdowns in Qatar, Iraq, and offshore UAE, as well as damage at the Satorp refinery complex in Saudi Arabia.That has put assets linked to roughly 15% of group output and around 10% of upstream cash flow under pressure, which is enough to draw immediate attention from both income-focused investors and global energy analysts.

TotalEnergies Faces 15% Disruption—But Is Its Cash Flow Stronger Than Investors Think?

France

TotalEnergies SE operates as an energy company. The Company produces, transports, and supplies crude oil, natural gas, and low carbon electricity, as well as refines petrochemical products. TotalEnergies owns and manages gasoline filling stations worldwide.

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TotalEnergies (TTE US)

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 11 Sep '26

The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with a smaller supply surplus than usual, as tighter Asian and Group III balances leave...

Base Oil News

TotalEnergies’ Amiral, Ratawi, and Tilenga Push Could Be a Game-Changer for Future Output!

TotalEnergies’ first quarter 2026 results reflect resilience amid geopolitical challenges, notably the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which...

Baptista Research

Global Base Oils Supply Surplus Shrinks In June

Demand across the Americas rose 4%, as a rebound in US consumption offset a 7% drop in Latin America. Europe's lubricants demand fell 4% in June,...

Base Oil News

Global Base Oils Supply Falls To 16-Month Low In June

Europe's supply held relatively steady at more than 370,000 tonnes, close to where it has stood for most of the past six months. Americas supply...

Base Oil News

TotalEnergies Faces 15% Disruption—But Is Its Cash Flow Stronger Than Investors Think?

TotalEnergies is facing a test that looks straightforward on the surface but becomes more complicated once the financial model is examined in...

Baptista Research

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