Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toto stock price -16% over past year vs index +24% as China growth story collapses. Restructuring China ops; targeting breakeven FY3/27</li>
<li>New growth drivers: US capacity buildout underpins Americas sales growth, while electrostatic chucks beneficiary of SPE spend</li>
<li>Stock trading at 30% discount to historical average and deep discount to global peers</li>
</ul>


Toto stock price -16% over past year vs index +24% as China growth story collapses. Restructuring China ops; targeting breakeven FY3/27
New growth drivers: US capacity buildout underpins Americas sales growth, while electrostatic chucks beneficiary of SPE spend
Stock trading at 30% discount to historical average and deep discount to global peers


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Buybacks in Japan are becoming a much greater driver of shareholder return than in previous years. The total amount of buybacks announced just during the March-end earnings season cleared ¥7trln.</li>
<li>Quiddity has developed a buyback tool which tracks Japanese buybacks and the buyback history for any given company. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isuzu-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14726:1" rel="noopener">Isuzu Motors (7202 JP)</a> announced a big post-Offering buyback this week.</li>
<li>Want to see how Isuzu has executed buybacks the past decade? Daily data? % volume? You can check here for any of the 21 companies which announced buybacks this week. </li>
</ul>


Buybacks in Japan are becoming a much greater driver of shareholder return than in previous years. The total amount of buybacks announced just during the March-end earnings season cleared ¥7trln.
Quiddity has developed a buyback tool which tracks Japanese buybacks and the buyback history for any given company. Isuzu Motors (7202 JP) announced a big post-Offering buyback this week.
Want to see how Isuzu has executed buybacks the past decade? Daily data? % volume? You can check here for any of the 21 companies which announced buybacks this week. 


[Japan Buybacks] - Buybacks Announced 26-30 May 2025 And Company Buyback History

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.</li>
<li>Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.</li>
<li>The forecast deletes have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX</a> on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.</li>
</ul>


There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.


Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.</li>
<li>Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.</li>
<li>The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.</li>
</ul>


China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.
Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.
The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.


Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

<ul>
<li>MS downgrades PC makers on risk high memory prices eat into margins.</li>
<li>China angst against Takaichi TW comments will cause JP rails, hotels etc. to fall further.</li>
<li>Advantest CEO meeting yesterday unlikely enough to appease investor demands after huge run.</li>
</ul>


MS downgrades PC makers on risk high memory prices eat into margins.
China angst against Takaichi TW comments will cause JP rails, hotels etc. to fall further.
Advantest CEO meeting yesterday unlikely enough to appease investor demands after huge run.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Skittish Ahead of NVDA but Memory Continues to Run

Japan

TOTO LTD. manufactures and sells china and earthenware fittings and bathroom accessories.  The Company's products include ceramic toilet fixtures and sinks, bath tubs, dressers, and solar powered water heaters.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Toto Ltd (5332 JP)

TOTO (5332 JP) | Beyond China

Toto stock price drops due to China growth concerns, but new growth drivers in US and SPE spending offer potential upside. Trading at significant...

Mark Chadwick

[Japan Buybacks] - Buybacks Announced 26-30 May 2025 And Company Buyback History

Testing out a new tool for buyback data. This time, a recap of the week's announced buybacks (¥254bn, 21 cos) in Japan, along with 10yr historical...

Travis Lundy

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Tomorrow is going to be a huge volume day in Japan as the global index rebalances. Kokusai Electric has bounced as expected and there could be more...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Skittish Ahead of NVDA but Memory Continues to Run

JP SPE rebound momentum likely to drop out following the shaky lead overnight. JR rails and hotel names may trade down following tensions with...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TOTO (5332 JP) | Beyond China

​Toto stock price drops due to China growth concerns, but new growth drivers in US and SPE spending offer potential upside. Trading at significant...

Mark Chadwick

[Japan Buybacks] - Buybacks Announced 26-30 May 2025 And Company Buyback History

Testing out a new tool for buyback data. This time, a recap of the week's announced buybacks (¥254bn, 21 cos) in Japan, along with 10yr historical...

Travis Lundy

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Tomorrow is going to be a huge volume day in Japan as the global index rebalances. Kokusai Electric has bounced as expected and there could be more...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

​Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Skittish Ahead of NVDA but Memory Continues to Run

JP SPE rebound momentum likely to drop out following the shaky lead overnight. JR rails and hotel names may trade down following tensions with...

Andrew Jackson

Toto stock price drops due to China growth concerns, but new growth drivers in US and SPE spending offer potential upside. Trading at significant...

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.