New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tower (TWR) has renewed its reinsurance programme for FY27 on improved terms, with both a stronger-than-expected cost outcome and higher coverage.</li><li>Management expects its reinsurance expense ratio to fall c.-110bp from FY26 to 9.5%, reflecting both favourable global reinsurance pricing conditions and further recognition of TWR’s expanded risk-based pricing and lower-risk targeting.</li><li>Alongside improved costs, TWR lifted its catastrophe protection while event excesses remained unchanged—the first time in five years the company has not seen an excess uplift.</li></ul>

Tower (TWR) has renewed its reinsurance programme for FY27 on improved terms, with both a stronger-than-expected cost outcome and higher coverage.Management expects its reinsurance expense ratio to fall c.-110bp from FY26 to 9.5%, reflecting both favourable global reinsurance pricing conditions and further recognition of TWR’s expanded risk-based pricing and lower-risk targeting.Alongside improved costs, TWR lifted its catastrophe protection while event excesses remained unchanged—the first time in five years the company has not seen an excess uplift.

<ul><li>Sector performance was mixed over the last three months.</li><li>Tower (TWR) delivered a +4% total return, lagging QBE (+17%), but outperforming both SUN (+1%) and IAG (-3%).</li><li>We lift our TWR target price +2% to NZ$2.40, primarily reflecting a +5% uplift in peer comparable valuations since February, with peers now trading at a median 12-month forward PE of 14.8x.</li></ul>

Sector performance was mixed over the last three months.Tower (TWR) delivered a +4% total return, lagging QBE (+17%), but outperforming both SUN (+1%) and IAG (-3%).We lift our TWR target price +2% to NZ$2.40, primarily reflecting a +5% uplift in peer comparable valuations since February, with peers now trading at a median 12-month forward PE of 14.8x.

Forsyth Barr General Insurance Digest Edition 15—Normal Seasonality Returns

<ul><li>Tower (TWR) will report a strong, largely pre-released FY25 result on 27 November 2025, following updated guidance on 12 September 2025.</li><li>TWR expects underlying NPAT of NZ$100m–NZ$110m, supported by benign weather and large-event costs of only NZ$7m (well below the original NZ$50m allowance).</li><li>Management remains confident in +10% to +15% medium-term GWP growth, underpinned by Westpac.</li></ul>

Tower (TWR) will report a strong, largely pre-released FY25 result on 27 November 2025, following updated guidance on 12 September 2025.TWR expects underlying NPAT of NZ$100m–NZ$110m, supported by benign weather and large-event costs of only NZ$7m (well below the original NZ$50m allowance).Management remains confident in +10% to +15% medium-term GWP growth, underpinned by Westpac.

Tower Limited - FY25 Preview—Good Weather, Better Result

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Whilst 2024 was one the costliest years globally for reinsurance companies, in NZ, unusually benign weather provided a favourable backdrop for the local general insurance industry.</li><li>This saw Tower (TWR: unrated) deliver a record FY24 result for the year to September 2024.</li><li>Looking toward 2025, we are expecting a more normalised period for the industry, with the insurance rate cycle cooling, greater focus on customer numbers, new products, investment returns coming off their peak, and an ongoing push to reduce costs. </li></ul>

Whilst 2024 was one the costliest years globally for reinsurance companies, in NZ, unusually benign weather provided a favourable backdrop for the local general insurance industry.This saw Tower (TWR: unrated) deliver a record FY24 result for the year to September 2024.Looking toward 2025, we are expecting a more normalised period for the industry, with the insurance rate cycle cooling, greater focus on customer numbers, new products, investment returns coming off their peak, and an ongoing push to reduce costs. 

Forsyth Barr General Insurance Digest - Edition 10 — Australasian Insurers Outperform

<ul><li>The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) released its outlook for October to December 2023 on 29 September 2023.</li><li>As part of its outlook, NIWA declared that El Niño—characterised by 'stronger or more frequent winds from the west in the summer'—had officially arrived.</li><li>El Niño generally brings warmer temperatures and stronger winds across the country, with below–average rainfall in the north and east of the North Island and above–average rainfall in the west of the South Island. </li></ul>

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) released its outlook for October to December 2023 on 29 September 2023.As part of its outlook, NIWA declared that El Niño—characterised by 'stronger or more frequent winds from the west in the summer'—had officially arrived.El Niño generally brings warmer temperatures and stronger winds across the country, with below–average rainfall in the north and east of the North Island and above–average rainfall in the west of the South Island. 

Forsyth Barr General Insurance Digest - Edition 5—El Niño An Insurers Amigo?

New Zealand

TOWER Limited provides risk insurance and wealth management products and services. The Company operates in general insurance, health & life insurance, and investments and funds management.

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Tower Ltd (TWR NZ)

Tower Limited Covering More for Less

Tower (TWR) has renewed its reinsurance programme for FY27 on improved terms, with both a stronger-than-expected cost outcome and higher...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr General Insurance Digest Edition 15—Normal Seasonality Returns

Sector performance was mixed over the last three months. Tower (TWR) delivered a +4% total return, lagging QBE (+17%), but outperforming both SUN...

Forsyth Barr

Tower Limited - FY25 Preview—Good Weather, Better Result

Tower (TWR) will report a strong, largely pre-released FY25 result on 27 November 2025, following updated guidance on 12 September 2025.

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr General Insurance Digest - Edition 10 — Australasian Insurers Outperform

Whilst 2024 was one the costliest years globally for reinsurance companies, in NZ, unusually benign weather provided a favourable backdrop for the...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr General Insurance Digest - Edition 5—El Niño An Insurers Amigo?

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) released its outlook for October to December 2023 on 29 September 2023.

Forsyth Barr

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