Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: On 23 July 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> surged 14.3%, driven by macro factors tied to tariffs. This Insight examines how that sharp move affected the stock’s volatility surface.</li>
<li>
Key Observations: Implied volatility spiked to extreme percentiles, with two-week IV hitting the 99th–100th percentile. Skew dynamics show otm calls becoming historically rich relative to puts.</li>
<li>
Opportunity: Elevated implied volatility and historically flat skew present an attractive setup for a zero-cost option strategy.</li>
</ul>



Context: On 23 July 2025, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) surged 14.3%, driven by macro factors tied to tariffs. This Insight examines how that sharp move affected the stock’s volatility surface.

Key Observations: Implied volatility spiked to extreme percentiles, with two-week IV hitting the 99th–100th percentile. Skew dynamics show otm calls becoming historically rich relative to puts.

Opportunity: Elevated implied volatility and historically flat skew present an attractive setup for a zero-cost option strategy.


Toyota (7203 JP) Surges 14% — A Contrarian Option Strategy

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 18th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,250m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Lasertec, Fujikura, Advantest, Sanrio, Ihi, Fast Retailing, Softbank, Seven &amp; I, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 18th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,250m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Lasertec, Fujikura, Advantest, Sanrio, Ihi, Fast Retailing, Softbank, Seven &amp; I, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 18th): Lasertec, Fujikura, Advantest, Sanrio, Ihi, Fast Retailing

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big capex plans for Google and good numbers for SK Hynix setting strong tone for AI related.</li>
<li>Momo names slid yesterday, although Ishiba heading for door may pressure heavies further.</li>
<li>Autos squeezed hard yesterday, but there should be more upside for names with elevated SI still.</li>
</ul>


Big capex plans for Google and good numbers for SK Hynix setting strong tone for AI related.
Momo names slid yesterday, although Ishiba heading for door may pressure heavies further.
Autos squeezed hard yesterday, but there should be more upside for names with elevated SI still.


Japan Morning Connection: US Liking JP and Expected EU Trade Deals, Expect Flows Back in Tech

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 11th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,320m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio, Lasertec, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ntt Data, Fujikura, Nintendo, Tokyo Electric Power Company.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 11th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,320m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio, Lasertec, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ntt Data, Fujikura, Nintendo, Tokyo Electric Power Company.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 11th): Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan is susceptible to a bump if there is enough vocal opposition from minorities. </li>
<li>In July, two public pieces have sharply criticised the offer – the <a href="https://www.acga-asia.org/blog-detail.php?id=102" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Asian Corporate Governance Association (ACGA)</a> on 2 July and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5c99c107-58a4-4434-b1b3-d6be44cf849e" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sloane Robinson Investment Management</a> on 8 July.</li>
<li>Some of the criticism has merit, while others do not. Nevertheless, these letters are the first and right step to agitate for terms that are closer to TICO's intrinsic value.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan is susceptible to a bump if there is enough vocal opposition from minorities. 
In July, two public pieces have sharply criticised the offer – the Asian Corporate Governance Association (ACGA) on 2 July and Sloane Robinson Investment Management on 8 July.
Some of the criticism has merit, while others do not. Nevertheless, these letters are the first and right step to agitate for terms that are closer to TICO's intrinsic value.


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Toyota (7203 JP) Surges 14% — A Contrarian Option Strategy

An opportunity emerges after volatility shifts to extreme levels. Find out how implied volatility reacted to the recent rally and explore a zero...

Gaudenz Schneider

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 18th): Lasertec, Fujikura, Advantest, Sanrio, Ihi, Fast Retailing

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Lasertec (6920 JP), Fujikura (5803 JP), Advantest (6857 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Morning Connection: US Liking JP and Expected EU Trade Deals, Expect Flows Back in Tech

With reversal from momentum and Ishiba's resignation, defense names may drop further. Autos may have plenty more upside despite big moves yesterday.

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 11th): Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Mitsubishi Heavy...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

The onus is now on minorities to publicly advocate for better terms or scuttle the tender offer. Two recent letters are the first and right step to...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Toyota (7203 JP) Surges 14% — A Contrarian Option Strategy

​An opportunity emerges after volatility shifts to extreme levels. Find out how implied volatility reacted to the recent rally and explore a zero...

Gaudenz Schneider

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 18th): Lasertec, Fujikura, Advantest, Sanrio, Ihi, Fast Retailing

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Lasertec (6920 JP), Fujikura (5803 JP), Advantest (6857 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Morning Connection: US Liking JP and Expected EU Trade Deals, Expect Flows Back in Tech

With reversal from momentum and Ishiba's resignation, defense names may drop further. Autos may have plenty more upside despite big moves yesterday.

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 11th): Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Mitsubishi Heavy...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

The onus is now on minorities to publicly advocate for better terms or scuttle the tender offer. Two recent letters are the first and right step to...

Arun George

An opportunity emerges after volatility shifts to extreme levels. Find out how implied volatility reacted to the recent rally and explore a zero...