Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 26th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in ANZ, CSL, Domino'S Pizza.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 26th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in ANZ, CSL, Domino'S Pizza.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 26th): ANZ, CSL, Domino'S Pizza

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a> could be deleted as the lowest ranked current index constituents.</li>
<li>There are three other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold and a change in the free float could result in the stocks being deleted.</li>
<li>With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd-95d4fbed-afa1-41e9-bafb-a5f1ef97622e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22775:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU)</a>, shorts have been increasing on nearly all the potential and close deletions.</li>
</ul>



AMP Ltd (AMP AU) and A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU) could be deleted as the lowest ranked current index constituents.
There are three other stocks that are close to the deletion threshold and a change in the free float could result in the stocks being deleted.
With the exception of A2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M AU), shorts have been increasing on nearly all the potential and close deletions.


MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy's tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, faced two major hurdles. </li>
<li>The first was ACCC approval. Not just over competition issues, but also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield's future commitment to renewable generation. ACCC has now cleared the transaction. 
</li>
<li>The second is currying favour with shareholders, several of whom, including AustralianSuper (13.68% stake), reckon the Offer is substantially below long-term value. This needs a bump.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy's tilt for Origin Energy (ORG AU), faced two major hurdles. 
The first was ACCC approval. Not just over competition issues, but also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield's future commitment to renewable generation. ACCC has now cleared the transaction. 

The second is currying favour with shareholders, several of whom, including AustralianSuper (13.68% stake), reckon the Offer is substantially below long-term value. This needs a bump.


Origin/Brookfield: ACCC Rubber Stamped. Now Shareholders Will Have Their Say

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy in late March, the ACCC approval process has played out in the public eye.</li>
<li>And it hasn't been all beer and Skittles for the Offerors. Not just on competition issues. But also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield's future commitment to renewable generation.  </li>
<li>All the while, the ACCC recently blocked <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">ANZ (ANZ AU)</a>’s acquisition of Suncorp Bank, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telstra-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690:1" rel="noopener">Telstra Corp (TLS AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tpg-telecom-ltd-5b64c473-761f-4a0a-a7f9-95770efefa20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30984:1" rel="noopener">TPG Telecom (TPG AU)</a>'s mobile network sharing deal. </li>
</ul>


After Origin Energy (ORG AU) entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy in late March, the ACCC approval process has played out in the public eye.
And it hasn't been all beer and Skittles for the Offerors. Not just on competition issues. But also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield's future commitment to renewable generation.  
All the while, the ACCC recently blocked ANZ (ANZ AU)’s acquisition of Suncorp Bank, and Telstra Corp (TLS AU)/TPG Telecom (TPG AU)'s mobile network sharing deal. 


Origin Energy: ACCC's Concerns And Brookfield's Quid Pro Quo

Australia

TPG Telecom Ltd provides telecommunication services. The Company offers mobile and fixed broadband solutions. Vodafone Hutchison Australia serves customers in Australia.

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TPG Telecom (TPG AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 26th): ANZ, CSL, Domino'S Pizza

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in ANZ, CSL, Domino'S Pizza.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Stocks Close to Deletion Zone

There are 2 potential deletes and another 3 stocks that are close deletes for the MVIS AU Equal Weight Index. Just the capping changes back to...

Brian Freitas

Origin/Brookfield: ACCC Rubber Stamped. Now Shareholders Will Have Their Say

Shares are up 4.5% today to A$9.15, as I type, suggesting ~7% upside to a possible A$9.80/share revised Offer. I'd be picking up shares around here.

David Blennerhassett

Origin Energy: ACCC's Concerns And Brookfield's Quid Pro Quo

The integrated energy play is trading at a healthy 5.1% gross spread to terms, with an off-ramp perhaps mid-1Q24. I would be a buyer around here.

David Blennerhassett

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