Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.</li>
<li>Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). </li>
</ul>


A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.
Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>On 27 May, the SFC and CSRC announced that they had agreed in principle to the inclusion of Exchange Traded Funds by mainland and Hong Kong exchanges in Stock Connect.</li>
<li>We currently see 6 ETF being eligible for inclusion in Southbound Connect and another couple that could be included at a subsequent review.</li>
<li>Increased mainland participation in the ETF market could lead to sustained premium/discount on the ETFs and this will be transmitted to index futures and affect pricing of short-term/long-term repo.</li>
</ul>


On 27 May, the SFC and CSRC announced that they had agreed in principle to the inclusion of Exchange Traded Funds by mainland and Hong Kong exchanges in Stock Connect.
We currently see 6 ETF being eligible for inclusion in Southbound Connect and another couple that could be included at a subsequent review.
Increased mainland participation in the ETF market could lead to sustained premium/discount on the ETFs and this will be transmitted to index futures and affect pricing of short-term/long-term repo.


ETFs in Stock Connect: Criteria & Potential Southbound Inclusions

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recently released results show a similar trajectory as the first half</li>
<li>Operating Cash flow improved in the quarter but balance sheet deteriorating</li>
<li>The company is in the wrong sector for short-term outperformance</li>
</ul>


Recently released results show a similar trajectory as the first half
Operating Cash flow improved in the quarter but balance sheet deteriorating
The company is in the wrong sector for short-term outperformance


Sinotrans (598.HK)-Unlikely to Perform in the Short to Mid Term.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 1st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, CCB, Xinyi Solar, China Mobile, CNOOC, Zto Express.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 1st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, CCB, Xinyi Solar, China Mobile, CNOOC, Zto Express.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 1st): Alibaba, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, CCB, Xinyi Solar, China Mobile

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND had a small up week in 28% lower gross week on week. SOUTHBOUND activity is now the lowest in many weeks, not keeping up with mainland volumes.</li>
<li>ETFs were net sold, and high-div SOEs (China Mobile, CNOOC) were sold yet again. BABA, Xiaomi, Tencent, GCL were bought. </li>
<li>The buying of tech continues. I expect this to last for a while.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND had a small up week in 28% lower gross week on week. SOUTHBOUND activity is now the lowest in many weeks, not keeping up with mainland volumes.
ETFs were net sold, and high-div SOEs (China Mobile, CNOOC) were sold yet again. BABA, Xiaomi, Tencent, GCL were bought. 
The buying of tech continues. I expect this to last for a while.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Nov 2024); High-Div SOEs Sold, Tech Bought

Hong Kong

Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (TraHK) is an ETF registered in Hong Kong. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that closely correspond to the performance of the Hang Seng Index through investing all, or substantially all, of the Fund's assets in Index Shares in substantially the same weightings as they appear in the Hang Seng Index.

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Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows were positive on the week but most of the net buying was in the big two ETFs. The trend of buying low PER high div SOEs continues....

Travis Lundy

ETFs in Stock Connect: Criteria & Potential Southbound Inclusions

SFC & CSRC have agreed in principle to the inclusion of HKEX listed ETFs in Southbound Connect. We see 6 ETFs as eligible for inclusion. There will...

Brian Freitas

Sinotrans (598.HK)-Unlikely to Perform in the Short to Mid Term.

Quarterly results show a similar trajectory as the first half with revenue rising but margins being squeezed. The company is in wrong sector for...

Rikki Malik

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 1st): Alibaba, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, CCB, Xinyi Solar, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, CCB, Xinyi Solar,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Nov 2024); High-Div SOEs Sold, Tech Bought

SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer, again. Volumes were lower. High-div SOEs - so well bought in the early part of the year - are being liquidated in...

Travis Lundy

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HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows were positive on the week but most of the net buying was in the big two ETFs. The trend of buying low PER high div SOEs continues....

Travis Lundy

ETFs in Stock Connect: Criteria & Potential Southbound Inclusions

SFC & CSRC have agreed in principle to the inclusion of HKEX listed ETFs in Southbound Connect. We see 6 ETFs as eligible for inclusion. There will...

Brian Freitas

Sinotrans (598.HK)-Unlikely to Perform in the Short to Mid Term.

​Quarterly results show a similar trajectory as the first half with revenue rising but margins being squeezed. The company is in wrong sector for...

Rikki Malik

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 1st): Alibaba, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, CCB, Xinyi Solar, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, CCB, Xinyi Solar,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Nov 2024); High-Div SOEs Sold, Tech Bought

SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer, again. Volumes were lower. High-div SOEs - so well bought in the early part of the year - are being liquidated in...

Travis Lundy

Quarterly results show a similar trajectory as the first half with revenue rising but margins being squeezed. The company is in wrong sector for...