Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.</li>
<li>Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields </li>
<li>Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI</li>
</ul>


We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Seoul Guarantee Insurance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a> is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.</li>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.</li>
<li>We have looked at the firm’s past performance in earlier notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.
Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
We have looked at the firm’s past performance in earlier notes. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Peer Comparison - While ROE Lagged, Has Been Overcapitalised

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a>, a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).</li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/seoul-guarantee-insurance-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113213" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on ongoing market share losses, weak performing credit insurance business, a 1H23 increase in the combined ratio and a decline in ROA/ROE metrics. </li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS), a leading guarantee provider in Korea, is pre-marketing an IPO to raise up to KRW362 billion (US$272 million).
In Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on ongoing market share losses, weak performing credit insurance business, a 1H23 increase in the combined ratio and a decline in ROA/ROE metrics. 


Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a> is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.</li>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.
Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO - The Negatives - The Tide Could Be Turning. Overhang Looms

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seoul-guarantee-insurance-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40123:1" rel="noopener">Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS)</a> is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.</li>
<li>Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO.
Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO - The Positives - Broad Coverage Across Guarantee Insurance

United States

The Travelers Companies, Inc. provides commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals.

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Travelers Cos (TRV US)

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar $DXY and Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO Peer Comparison - While ROE Lagged, Has Been Overcapitalised

Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise US$270m in its Korean IPO. We have looked at the firm’s past performance in earlier...

Clarence Chu

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on ongoing market share losses, weak performing credit insurance business, a 1H23 increase in the combined ratio and a decline...

Arun George

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO - The Negatives - The Tide Could Be Turning. Overhang Looms

Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO. In this note, we will talk about the not so positive...

Clarence Chu

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Pre-IPO - The Positives - Broad Coverage Across Guarantee Insurance

Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) is looking to raise around US$270m in its Korean IPO. In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects...

Clarence Chu

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