Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Health Care Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.</li>
<li>Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)</li>
<li>Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives</li>
</ul>


As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get more defensive.</li>
<li>As long as the S&amp;P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.</li>
<li>Even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 on SPX to cap upside for 2023. We highlight many buy opportunities within Consumer Staples</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get more defensive.
As long as the S&amp;P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.
Even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 on SPX to cap upside for 2023. We highlight many buy opportunities within Consumer Staples


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors 

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

Key points:<ul>
<li>Energy names are showing signs of bottoming with the recent uptick in crude, and weakness in the U.S. dollar</li>
<li>REITs are continuing to firm up as rates have plateaued</li>
<li>Biotech stocks are continuing to show leadership characteristics</li>
</ul>Charts highlighted: AFI, ODP, SPWH, CVS, KMB, THS, CHK, KMI, RRC, AXS, ESS, KIM, APTS, KRG, REGN, NERV, NSTG, RARX, AYI, CFX, AXL, PAH, FNSR, TRUE, ALK, HA, SAVE, and PEGI

Key points:
Energy names are showing signs of bottoming with the recent uptick in crude, and weakness in the U.S. dollar
REITs are continuing to firm up as rates have plateaued
Biotech stocks are continuing to show leadership characteristics
Charts highlighted: AFI, ODP, SPWH, CVS, KMB, THS, CHK, KMI, RRC, AXS, ESS, KIM, APTS, KRG, REGN, NERV, NSTG, RARX, AYI, CFX, AXL, PAH, FNSR, TRUE, ALK, HA, SAVE, and PEGI

Technically Attractive U.S. Stocks for Value Investors

Key Points:<ul>
<li>The Staples Sector is leadership and many names are staging price and RS reversals.</li>
<li>REIT’s are breaking above bases and are showing RS leadership.</li>
<li>Paper &amp; Forest products are strengthening and many are reversing price and RS downtrend or breaking above bases.</li>
<li>Large-Cap Pharma stocks are showing leadership. Many have broken topside of multi-year consolidations or have reversed multi-year price and RS downtrends.</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/059/921/original/Untitled.png?1533586859" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="59921"></figure>

Key Points:
The Staples Sector is leadership and many names are staging price and RS reversals.
REIT’s are breaking above bases and are showing RS leadership.
Paper &amp; Forest products are strengthening and many are reversing price and RS downtrend or breaking above bases.
Large-Cap Pharma stocks are showing leadership. Many have broken topside of multi-year consolidations or have reversed multi-year price and RS downtrends.


United States

TreeHouse Foods, Inc. is a food manufacturer servicing primarily the retail grocery and foodservice distribution channels. The Company's products include non-dairy powdered coffee creamer; canned soups, salad dressings and sauces; salsa and Mexican sauces; jams and pie fillings, pickles, and related products.

Treehouse Foods (THS US)

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Shifting exposure toward value and defensives. Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP and Health Care $XLV to market weight. $ARKK and $IPO with bearish...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

Last week (3/21) we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the $SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which we noted...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more...

Vermilion Research

Technically Attractive U.S. Stocks for Value Investors

Key points: Energy names are showing signs of bottoming with the recent uptick in crude, and weakness in the U.S. dollar REITs are continuing to...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Vital Signs: Actionable Stocks

Key Points: The Staples Sector is leadership and many names are staging price and RS reversals. REIT’s are breaking above bases and are showing RS...

Vermilion Research