Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/081/original/2020-02-15_06-17-37.png?1581880049" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118081"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/082/original/2020-02-17_04-10-15.png?1581880238" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118082"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>14TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - With apologies to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro (4704 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a> who have yet to report, this will be our last daily roundup for this 'season'. After an additional 398 results and 253 forecasts/revision announcements, our Results Score dropped by a further eight basis points to -0.84, a decline of 190 basis points since the beginning of the year. The Forecast/Revision Score added three bps to reach 0.70, forty basis point higher than at the end of December. The last time that the Forecast/Revision Score was more than 150 bps higher than the Results Score was in the first calendar quarter of 2016 and preceded a sharp market upturn. The current market value is, however, ¥160 trillion higher than at that point, assisted by the constant market intervention by the Bank of Japan. Covid-19's impact will see the 2016 playbook repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. We are less optimistic that the market will repeat the 14% rise seen in 2016-Q2. The cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months.

Source • Japan Analytics14TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - With apologies to Trend Micro (4704 JP) and Bridgestone (5108 JP) who have yet to report, this will be our last daily roundup for this 'season'. After an additional 398 results and 253 forecasts/revision announcements, our Results Score dropped by a further eight basis points to -0.84, a decline of 190 basis points since the beginning of the year. The Forecast/Revision Score added three bps to reach 0.70, forty basis point higher than at the end of December. The last time that the Forecast/Revision Score was more than 150 bps higher than the Results Score was in the first calendar quarter of 2016 and preceded a sharp market upturn. The current market value is, however, ¥160 trillion higher than at that point, assisted by the constant market intervention by the Bank of Japan. Covid-19's impact will see the 2016 playbook repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. We are less optimistic that the market will repeat the 14% rise seen in 2016-Q2. The cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 14th February ▲2212 4927 8358 ▼ 6502 6098 9435

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the most attractive Sectors globally -- overweight. These two Sectors account for half of today’s individual recommendations Countries that are (1) developing positively in terms of price and RS and (2) have significant representation in this report include: Japan (TOPIX), Switzerland (SMI), and France (CAC 40).Outside of the above themes, a bottoms-up approach is required to uncover attractive and actionable stocks. On page 4 we include a table of all stocks highlighted in this report.

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the most attractive Sectors globally -- overweight. These two Sectors account for half of today’s individual recommendations Countries that are (1) developing positively in terms of price and RS and (2) have significant representation in this report include: Japan (TOPIX), Switzerland (SMI), and France (CAC 40).Outside of the above themes, a bottoms-up approach is required to uncover attractive and actionable stocks. On page 4 we include a table of all stocks highlighted in this report. 

Overweight Global Technology & Industrials

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a> IE opines that the Aura transaction is NOT fair but is reasonable and, hence, in the best interests of shareholders.</li>
<li>The IE’s Qoria valuation, on which it bases its NOT fair opinion, has issues. Shareholders should be largely supportive, as the alternative involving a dilutive raise is unappealing.</li>
<li>The IE values MergerCo at A$0.33-A$0.41, which is justifiable. If MergerCo trades in line with the median SaaS EV/ARR of 3.6x, it implies a Qoria value of A$0.43 per share.</li>
</ul>


The Qoria (QOR AU) IE opines that the Aura transaction is NOT fair but is reasonable and, hence, in the best interests of shareholders.
The IE’s Qoria valuation, on which it bases its NOT fair opinion, has issues. Shareholders should be largely supportive, as the alternative involving a dilutive raise is unappealing.
The IE values MergerCo at A$0.33-A$0.41, which is justifiable. If MergerCo trades in line with the median SaaS EV/ARR of 3.6x, it implies a Qoria value of A$0.43 per share.


Qoria (QOR AU): In a Bind as IE Opines that the Offer Is NOT Fair but Reasonable

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index.  In today’s report we take a bottoms-up view on developed ex-U.S. equities, highlighting stocks that present attractive buy opportunities within the Communications, Health Care, Manufacturing, Materials, Technology, Transportation, and Utilities Sectors

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index.  In today’s report we take a bottoms-up view on developed ex-U.S. equities, highlighting stocks that present attractive buy opportunities within the Communications, Health Care, Manufacturing, Materials, Technology, Transportation, and Utilities Sectors

Bottoms-Up View on Developed Markets: Actionable Stocks, Part 2

Japan

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

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Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 14th February ▲2212 4927 8358 ▼ 6502 6098 9435

14TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - With apologies to Trend Micro (4704 JP) and Bridgestone (5108 JP) who have yet to report, this will be our last daily...

Campbell Gunn

Overweight Global Technology & Industrials

In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int’l markets: Technology and Industrials continue to be two of the...

Vermilion Research

Qoria (QOR AU): In a Bind as IE Opines that the Offer Is NOT Fair but Reasonable

Shareholders should be largely supportive, as the alternative involving a dilutive raise is unappealing. The high-end of the IE MergerCo valuation...

Arun George

Bottoms-Up View on Developed Markets: Actionable Stocks, Part 2

Our outlook remains neutral for global ex-U.S. markets while horizontal consolidation continues on the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index. In today’s report...

Vermilion Research

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