Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. </li>
<li>The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.</li>
<li>This week we flag: Beyond Meat, Madison Sqr Garden, Trinity, Portillo, Jack in the Box</li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input. 
The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.
This week we flag: Beyond Meat, Madison Sqr Garden, Trinity, Portillo, Jack in the Box


Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Beyond Meat, Madison Sqr Garden, Trinity, Portillo, Jack in the Box

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are quite a few changes for stocks across the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a>, MidCap 400 Index and SmallCap 600 Index that will result in a one-way trade of US$30bn.</li>
<li>There are adds/deletes that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds, plus many stocks that have over +/-1 day of ADV from other changes.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive buying will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keurig-dr-pepper-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15411:1" rel="noopener">Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/on-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2729:1" rel="noopener">On Semiconductor (ON US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vici-properties-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28786:1" rel="noopener">VICI Properties Inc (VICI US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are quite a few changes for stocks across the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX), MidCap 400 Index and SmallCap 600 Index that will result in a one-way trade of US$30bn.
There are adds/deletes that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds, plus many stocks that have over +/-1 day of ADV from other changes.
The largest impact of passive buying will be on Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP US), On Semiconductor (ON US) and VICI Properties Inc (VICI US). 


S&P500 Index Rebalance: One-Way Trade of US$30bn

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul><li>Last week was a strong bounceback week for the S&amp;P 500 index as it closed back over its 10WK moving average and finished the week up over 6%</li><li>Technology and growth stocks were particularly strong on Thursday and Friday after Wednesday’s Fed meeting and closely followed yield curves already have inverted or are close to inverting</li><li>In addition, many beaten down growth stocks saw strong moves higher as short covering occurred going into options expiration last week</li></ul>

Last week was a strong bounceback week for the S&amp;P 500 index as it closed back over its 10WK moving average and finished the week up over 6%Technology and growth stocks were particularly strong on Thursday and Friday after Wednesday’s Fed meeting and closely followed yield curves already have inverted or are close to invertingIn addition, many beaten down growth stocks saw strong moves higher as short covering occurred going into options expiration last week

United States

Trinity Industries, Inc. manufactures transportation, construction, and industrial products.  The Company's products include tank and freight railcars, inland hopper and tank barges, highway guardrail and safety products, ready-mix concrete, and other products.  Trinity also leases railcars and other products. The Company markets its products in the United States and internationally.

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Trinity Industries (TRN US)

Solvency Risk Short Candidates: Beyond Meat, Madison Sqr Garden, Trinity, Portillo, Jack in the Box

This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows. This week we flag: Beyond Meat,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

S&P500 Index Rebalance: One-Way Trade of US$30bn

There are 3 changes for the S&P500, plus more changes for the MidCap and SmallCap indices. We estimate a one-way trade of US$30bn across the...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 3/21

Last week was a strong bounceback week for the S&P 500 index as it closed back over its 10WK moving average and finished the week up over 6%.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

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52-week Range

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