Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Valuations across Asia are mean reverting - expensive markets derating and the cheap ones rerating. We think this is likely to continue somewhat longer.</li>
<li>We think HK/China could rerate more; India and Taiwan could derate slightly further. India looks interesting. Valuation range has structurally shifted upwards. But another 5-10% relative valuation correction is warranted.</li>
<li>Principal stock choices in HK/China, Korea and India pertain to themes of domestic consumption, AI resilience and unloved sectors. Some of the companies have mitigating strategies for the tariff war.</li>
</ul>


Valuations across Asia are mean reverting - expensive markets derating and the cheap ones rerating. We think this is likely to continue somewhat longer.
We think HK/China could rerate more; India and Taiwan could derate slightly further. India looks interesting. Valuation range has structurally shifted upwards. But another 5-10% relative valuation correction is warranted.
Principal stock choices in HK/China, Korea and India pertain to themes of domestic consumption, AI resilience and unloved sectors. Some of the companies have mitigating strategies for the tariff war.


Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion - The Winners and Losers

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>HK Alpha Portfolio returned 13.58% in February and outperformed the benchmark by 7.68%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 5.16% to 11.48% since its inception on 10/01/24.</li>
<li>About 50% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio had no exposure to Real Estate, Energy, or Utilities.</li>
<li>At month-end we sold <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a> , and trimmed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> .</li>
</ul>


HK Alpha Portfolio returned 13.58% in February and outperformed the benchmark by 7.68%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 5.16% to 11.48% since its inception on 10/01/24.
About 50% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio had no exposure to Real Estate, Energy, or Utilities.
At month-end we sold AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) , Trip.com Group (9961 HK) , MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) , and trimmed Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) .


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (February 2025)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our "Buy the Worst" strategy has outperformed the HSI by 1.7pp in the first two months. Meanwhile, the basket of best-performing constituents have underperformed 1.9pp. </li>
<li>More news on stimulating consumptions should be positive to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>, and even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> has been weighed down by weaker profitability on higher costs. Earnings risks may negatively affect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Our "Buy the Worst" strategy has outperformed the HSI by 1.7pp in the first two months. Meanwhile, the basket of best-performing constituents have underperformed 1.9pp. 
More news on stimulating consumptions should be positive to Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), and even Hang Lung Properties (101 HK). 

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) has been weighed down by weaker profitability on higher costs. Earnings risks may negatively affect Meituan (3690 HK) and China Hongqiao (1378 HK). 


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than 19% we expected.</li>
<li>The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note.</li>
<li>However, we believe, any stock decline over 11% means overreacted.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than 19% we expected.
The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note.
However, we believe, any stock decline over 11% means overreacted.


Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324</li>
<li>But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction</li>
<li>We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform</li>
</ul>


Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324
But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction
We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform


Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

China

Trip.com Group Limited provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services. Trip.com Group provides services worldwide.

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Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion - The Winners and Losers

Asian valn mean reversion i.e. expensive markets derating & cheap ones rerating, could sustain. HK/China & KR may rerate more. India looks...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (February 2025)

HK Alpha portfolio returned 13.6% in February outperforming its benchmark and all HK indexes. Since inception HK Alpha has returned 13.1% with...

David Mudd

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than we expected. The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note, but we believe...

Ming Lu

Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Trip.com's Q424 results showed a re-acceleration of top-line growth, but also a surprising surge in Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses, which...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion - The Winners and Losers

​Asian valn mean reversion i.e. expensive markets derating & cheap ones rerating, could sustain. HK/China & KR may rerate more. India looks...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (February 2025)

HK Alpha portfolio returned 13.6% in February outperforming its benchmark and all HK indexes. Since inception HK Alpha has returned 13.1% with...

David Mudd

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Initial Win Against HSI This Year

​"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than we expected. The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note, but we believe...

Ming Lu

Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Trip.com's Q424 results showed a re-acceleration of top-line growth, but also a surprising surge in Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses, which...

Tracking Traffic

Asian valn mean reversion i.e. expensive markets derating & cheap ones rerating, could sustain. HK/China & KR may rerate more. India looks...

"Buy the worst" strategy outperforms HSI by 1.7pp, while best-performing stocks lag by 1.9pp. Stimulating consumption news could benefit...