Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A global index provider will be moving to a new float methodology from the upcoming rebalance in May. That will lead to lower floats for a lot of HK-listed stocks.</li>
<li>Lower float will result in passive selling of over US$5bn across HK-listed stocks. The top 15 sells by notional make up over 75% of the total sell flow.</li>
<li>The largest passive selling is expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-hung-kai-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:111:1" rel="noopener">Sun Hung Kai Properties</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring</a>. </li>
</ul>


A global index provider will be moving to a new float methodology from the upcoming rebalance in May. That will lead to lower floats for a lot of HK-listed stocks.
Lower float will result in passive selling of over US$5bn across HK-listed stocks. The top 15 sells by notional make up over 75% of the total sell flow.
The largest passive selling is expected in Tencent, China Construction Bank, Bank Of China, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Trip.com Group, BeiGene, Baidu and Nongfu Spring. 


Global Index Float Methodology Change: HK Stocks with Big Passive Sells

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>Since inception on 15th May 2025, our Asia-ex-Japan Model Portfolio is up 33.6%, against MXASJ's 30.9% appreciation. Topmost return generators are from Korean and Taiwanese tech, Korean defense and industrials.</li>
<li>The US-Iran negotiations failed, likely supporting the surge in energy prices. Green energy and EVs seem strongly supported. AI losers and companies vulnerable to disorderly competition could continue to underperform.</li>
<li>We exclude Tencent Music and Xiaomi, include CNOOC, CATL, Anta Sports. We are overweight HK/China, Korea and Singapore. We are neutral India and underweight Taiwan, through significantly overweight Taiwan tech.</li>
</ul>


Since inception on 15th May 2025, our Asia-ex-Japan Model Portfolio is up 33.6%, against MXASJ's 30.9% appreciation. Topmost return generators are from Korean and Taiwanese tech, Korean defense and industrials.
The US-Iran negotiations failed, likely supporting the surge in energy prices. Green energy and EVs seem strongly supported. AI losers and companies vulnerable to disorderly competition could continue to underperform.
We exclude Tencent Music and Xiaomi, include CNOOC, CATL, Anta Sports. We are overweight HK/China, Korea and Singapore. We are neutral India and underweight Taiwan, through significantly overweight Taiwan tech.


Asia Equities: Model Portfolio Changes - More to Chinese EV Supply Chain, Less to AI Losers

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on ALIBABA, TENCENT, PDD, JIANGSU EASTERN SHENGHONG, TRINA SOLAR, GDS, China Life, PING AN INSURANCE.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on ALIBABA, TENCENT, PDD, JIANGSU EASTERN SHENGHONG, TRINA SOLAR, GDS, China Life, PING AN INSURANCE.


MS-China Index Earning Revision (Feb): ALIBABA, TENCENT, PDD

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$38.8bn (US$4.96bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-molybdenum-co-ltd-d9c46a67-e31f-431f-9f5f-02222265d701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8585:1" rel="noopener">China Molybdenum</a> are the largest net buys, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo</a> are the largest net sells.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$38.8bn (US$4.96bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, Alibaba, Horizon Robotics, NetEase and China Molybdenum are the largest net buys, while HSBC Holdings, BYD, SMIC, JD.com and Lenovo are the largest net sells.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Slower pace of January activity growth explained by timing of long LNY holidays in 2025/26 </li>
<li>Initial numbers from LNY holiday period show more trips,  but tight purse-strings</li>
<li>Airlines appear to be managing well; a clearer picture of consumer will emerge soon</li>
</ul>


Slower pace of January activity growth explained by timing of long LNY holidays in 2025/26 
Initial numbers from LNY holiday period show more trips,  but tight purse-strings
Airlines appear to be managing well; a clearer picture of consumer will emerge soon


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January Impacted by LNY Timing | Initial LNY 2026 Numbers So-So

Singapore

Trip.com Group is a leading global one-stop travel platform offering accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, and corporate travel management services. It operates a portfolio of brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar. The company was founded in June 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

Global Index Float Methodology Change: HK Stocks with Big Passive Sells

A lot of the stocks with expected passive outflows have underperformed the indices over the last couple of weeks. We would look to unwind trades in...

Brian Freitas

Asia Equities: Model Portfolio Changes - More to Chinese EV Supply Chain, Less to AI Losers

Our AxJ Model Portfolio outperformed MXASJ, driven by KR & TW tech, KR defense, industrials. We now exclude Tencent Music, Xiaomi, add CNOOC,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

MS-China Index Earning Revision (Feb): ALIBABA, TENCENT, PDD

We analyzed MS-China's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in ALIBABA (9988 HK), TENCENT (700 HK), PDD Holdings (PDD US).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January Impacted by LNY Timing | Initial LNY 2026 Numbers So-So

January's Chinese tourism activity data were hurt by the timing of the LNY holiday. We have initial holiday numbers, but we'll get a better sense...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Index Float Methodology Change: HK Stocks with Big Passive Sells

A lot of the stocks with expected passive outflows have underperformed the indices over the last couple of weeks. We would look to unwind trades in...

Brian Freitas

Asia Equities: Model Portfolio Changes - More to Chinese EV Supply Chain, Less to AI Losers

​Our AxJ Model Portfolio outperformed MXASJ, driven by KR & TW tech, KR defense, industrials. We now exclude Tencent Music, Xiaomi, add CNOOC,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

MS-China Index Earning Revision (Feb): ALIBABA, TENCENT, PDD

We analyzed MS-China's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in ALIBABA (9988 HK), TENCENT (700 HK), PDD Holdings (PDD US).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January Impacted by LNY Timing | Initial LNY 2026 Numbers So-So

January's Chinese tourism activity data were hurt by the timing of the LNY holiday. We have initial holiday numbers, but we'll get a better sense...

Tracking Traffic

Our AxJ Model Portfolio outperformed MXASJ, driven by KR & TW tech, KR defense, industrials. We now exclude Tencent Music, Xiaomi, add CNOOC,...