HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is a key beneficiary.</li>
<li>In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. </li>
<li>Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> can be reversed.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is a key beneficiary.
In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. 
Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against Trip.com (TCOM US) can be reversed.


<ul>
<li>While adjusted net profit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK)</a> plummeted in 4Q22, the positive momentum in 1Q23 as revealed supports a sharp recovery in FY23.</li>
<li>Its huge exposure to lower-tier cities will fuel outlook while increase in monetisation will support profitability rebound. Success at Blackwhale membership program is another growth engine.  </li>
<li>Management is confident that revenue growth and better efficiency will lead the return of FY23 margin to pre-pandemic levels. Net cash position (12% of share price) is an added strength. </li>
</ul>


While adjusted net profit of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK) plummeted in 4Q22, the positive momentum in 1Q23 as revealed supports a sharp recovery in FY23.
Its huge exposure to lower-tier cities will fuel outlook while increase in monetisation will support profitability rebound. Success at Blackwhale membership program is another growth engine.  
Management is confident that revenue growth and better efficiency will lead the return of FY23 margin to pre-pandemic levels. Net cash position (12% of share price) is an added strength. 


Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities' Growth

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tbo-tek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36284:1" rel="noopener">TBO Tek (0395045D IN)</a> raised around US$186m in its India IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of the range at INR920/share.</li>
<li>TBO Tek is a global travel distribution platform. Its two-sided technology platform serves companies involved in the travel industry such as hotels, airlines, travel agencies and travel management companies.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



TBO Tek (0395045D IN) raised around US$186m in its India IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of the range at INR920/share.
TBO Tek is a global travel distribution platform. Its two-sided technology platform serves companies involved in the travel industry such as hotels, airlines, travel agencies and travel management companies.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about demand and trading dynamics.


TBO Tek IPO Trading - Has One of the Highest Subscription Rates so Far This Year

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>The new energy vehicle producers’ ranks changed a lot in April.</li>
<li>GAC began to sell batteries to outside new energy vehicle producers.</li>
<li>Kuaishou’s GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) increased by 420% YoY during the Labor Day.</li>
</ul>


The new energy vehicle producers’ ranks changed a lot in April.
GAC began to sell batteries to outside new energy vehicle producers.
Kuaishou’s GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) increased by 420% YoY during the Labor Day.


China Consumption Weekly (13 May 2024): Guangzhou Auto, NIO, CALT, Kuaishou, Trip.com, Seres

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tbo-tek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36284:1" rel="noopener">TBO Tek (0395045D IN)</a> is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>TBO Tek is a global travel distribution platform. Its two-sided technology platform serves companies involved in the travel industry such as hotels, airlines, travel agencies and travel management companies.</li>
<li>In this note, we provide a summary of its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



TBO Tek (0395045D IN) is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
TBO Tek is a global travel distribution platform. Its two-sided technology platform serves companies involved in the travel industry such as hotels, airlines, travel agencies and travel management companies.
In this note, we provide a summary of its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on valuation.


TBO Tek IPO - RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Valuation

China

Trip.com Group Limited provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services. Trip.com Group provides services worldwide.

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Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities' Growth

Positive business momentum in 1Q23 supports a sharp recovery in FY23. Huge exposure to lower-tier cities and increase in monetisation will support...

Osbert Tang, CFA

TBO Tek IPO Trading - Has One of the Highest Subscription Rates so Far This Year

TBO Tek (0395045D IN) raised around US$186m in its India IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of the range at INR920/share.

Ethan Aw

China Consumption Weekly (13 May 2024): Guangzhou Auto, NIO, CALT, Kuaishou, Trip.com, Seres

The NEV producers’ ranks changed a lot in April. GAC began to sell batteries to outside new energy vehicle producers. Kuaishou’s GMV increased by...

Ming Lu

TBO Tek IPO - RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Valuation

TBO Tek (0395045D IN) is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we provide a summary of its RHP updates...

Ethan Aw

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