Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>On Tuesday morning we spoke to Mr. S.S. Teo, Managing Director of Pacific International Lines (PIL). PIL is a private, family-owned container carrier currently ranked number thirteen world-wide in terms of fleet carrying capacity (about 376,000 TEUs according to Alphaliner). PIL has a strong presence in trades between East Asia and India, the Middle East, and Africa, and a much smaller presence in the larger trades connecting Asia, North America, and Europe; it mainly serves these latter markets…</p>

On Tuesday morning we spoke to Mr. S.S. Teo, Managing Director of Pacific International Lines (PIL). PIL is a private, family-owned container carrier currently ranked number thirteen world-wide in terms of fleet carrying capacity (about 376,000 TEUs according to Alphaliner). PIL has a strong presence in trades between East Asia and India, the Middle East, and Africa, and a much smaller presence in the larger trades connecting Asia, North America, and Europe; it mainly serves these latter markets…

Pacific International Lines' MD Discusses Container Sector Consolidation: 'Fewer Weddings' in 2017

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-s-lines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39795:1" rel="noopener">T.S. Lines (TSL HK)</a> and Taiwan's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a> are directly comparable</li>
<li>WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)</li>
<li>Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL's shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL's; no premium is justified, in our view</li>
</ul>


In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe T.S. Lines (TSL HK) and Taiwan's Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) are directly comparable
WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)
Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL's shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL's; no premium is justified, in our view


TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Container shipping giant Maersk met Q3 expectations and maintained earlier FY23 guidance</li>
<li>However, downbeat commentary combined with capex and job cuts sent shares -17% lower</li>
<li>Maersk does not expect any recovery in '24, but we believe this pessimism already in prices</li>
</ul>


Container shipping giant Maersk met Q3 expectations and maintained earlier FY23 guidance
However, downbeat commentary combined with capex and job cuts sent shares -17% lower
Maersk does not expect any recovery in '24, but we believe this pessimism already in prices


Maersk Q3: Estimates Met, Guidance Kept | But Downbeat Assessment of Market Sends Shares Down -17%

<ul>
<li>Price momentum stagnant, but could North American volume surge be an inflection point?</li>
<li>Fuel price hasn't risen since outbreak of violence in mideast, but no longer a tailwind, either</li>
<li>Look to Maersk results on November 3 for guidance, US inventory de-stocking commentary</li>
</ul>


Price momentum stagnant, but could North American volume surge be an inflection point?
Fuel price hasn't risen since outbreak of violence in mideast, but no longer a tailwind, either
Look to Maersk results on November 3 for guidance, US inventory de-stocking commentary


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rebound in NAM Volume Could Be Inflection Point (October 2023)

<ul>
<li>Our index suggests pricing momentum remains depressed, but stable in Q3; fuel prices have begun to rise from Q2 lows, but probably don't offer much lift to earnings now</li>
<li>We looked at intra-Asian carrier TS Lines (which applied to list its shares in Hong Kong in April) and provided a quick update on market conditions in the Intra-Asian trade</li>
<li>Shares of a few container shipping companies -- including Evergreen Marine of Taiwan -- have performed well YTD in 2023; we remain positive on the sector's medium-term outlook</li>
</ul>


Our index suggests pricing momentum remains depressed, but stable in Q3; fuel prices have begun to rise from Q2 lows, but probably don't offer much lift to earnings now
We looked at intra-Asian carrier TS Lines (which applied to list its shares in Hong Kong in April) and provided a quick update on market conditions in the Intra-Asian trade
Shares of a few container shipping companies -- including Evergreen Marine of Taiwan -- have performed well YTD in 2023; we remain positive on the sector's medium-term outlook


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)

Bermuda

Triton International Limited of Bermuda provides intermodal containers and chassis on lease. The Company offers acquisition, leasing, re-leasing, and sale of intermodal containers, as well as dry freight containers for general cargo, such as manufactured component parts, consumer staples, and electronics.

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Triton International (TRTN US)

Pacific International Lines' MD Discusses Container Sector Consolidation: 'Fewer Weddings' in 2017

On Tuesday morning we spoke to Mr. S.S. Teo, Managing Director of Pacific International Lines (PIL). PIL is a private, family-owned container...

Daniel Hellberg

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

Intra-Asia container carrier TS Lines filed to list its shares in Hong Kong (again) at the end of May, and its filing included full-year 2023...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q3: Estimates Met, Guidance Kept | But Downbeat Assessment of Market Sends Shares Down -17%

Last Friday Maersk reported Q3 results that met expectations. The company maintained FY23 guidance, but announced surprising cash-conservation...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rebound in NAM Volume Could Be Inflection Point (October 2023)

Pricing still appears stagnant, but a sharp rebound in container volumes moving into the ports along North America's Pacific coast in September...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)

According to our index, container shipping price momentum remains depressed, but stable. On the other hand, fuel prices -- a boon to earnings for...

Tracking Traffic

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