Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On the 15 December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amaysim-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24288:1" rel="noopener">amaysim Australia (AYS AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02322235-2A1270211?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wam-capital-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29122:1" rel="noopener">WAM Capital Ltd (WAM AU)</a> was offering AYS shareholders the choice of A$0.695/share in cash, or A$0.833/share in WAM scrip, or a combination of both, in an off-market takeover. The Offer had limited conditionality - shareholder approval of the mobile ops to Optus, and the standard regulatory approvals. And no MACs.
<h3>The New News</h3>
Micro-fund <a href="https://ramcap.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RAMcap</a>'s CEO Richard Matthews has been in contact with AYS seeking a meeting to elaborate on a proposal for RAMcap to make a scrip takeover offer for AYS. The bid consideration of the proposed offer, comprising either RAMcap ORD shares and options or REDP shares and options would value 1 AYS share at A$0.85 (for the ORD offer) and A$0.90 (for the REDP offer).
The text of the email response sent to AYS' general counsel is <a href="https://ramcap.com.au/2020/12/23/ramcap-has-designs-on-amaysim/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. 
RAM believes they have been misrepresented. I'm not inclined to agree, and do not expect AYS' board to support its scrip Offer. 
More below the fold.

On the 15 December, amaysim Australia (AYS AU) announced WAM Capital Ltd (WAM AU) was offering AYS shareholders the choice of A$0.695/share in cash, or A$0.833/share in WAM scrip, or a combination of both, in an off-market takeover. The Offer had limited conditionality - shareholder approval of the mobile ops to Optus, and the standard regulatory approvals. And no MACs.
The New News
Micro-fund RAMcap's CEO Richard Matthews has been in contact with AYS seeking a meeting to elaborate on a proposal for RAMcap to make a scrip takeover offer for AYS. The bid consideration of the proposed offer, comprising either RAMcap ORD shares and options or REDP shares and options would value 1 AYS share at A$0.85 (for the ORD offer) and A$0.90 (for the REDP offer).
The text of the email response sent to AYS' general counsel is here. 
RAM believes they have been misrepresented. I'm not inclined to agree, and do not expect AYS' board to support its scrip Offer. 
More below the fold.

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Initiate on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20374" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a> as a BUY</li>
<li>Six Chinese SOEs control ~78% of global primary REE supply</li>
<li>Est. China processes &gt;90% of global REE concentrate</li>
<li>LYC is the only LREE producer outside China of any note</li>
<li>Current focus on environmental problems and future capex secondary concerns</li>
<li>Potential mine expansion at Mt Weld</li>
<li>MOU regarding strategic processing in the US</li>
<li>Future margin expansion following recent REE price rises (~33% in a week)</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2106" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2106:1">Pensana Metals (PM8 AU)</a> as a Speculative BUY</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4111" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU)</a> focus on Mallee Bull a possible distraction</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6698" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27844" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN)</a>, Black Cat Syndicate (ASX: BC8), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20488" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2971" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2971:1">Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14062:1">Troy Resources (TRY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15518" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15518:1">Australian Vanadium (AVL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15374" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19897" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19897:1">Vango Mining (VAN AU)</a>, Carawine Resources (ASX: CWX)</li>
</ul>


Initiate on Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) as a BUY
Six Chinese SOEs control ~78% of global primary REE supply
Est. China processes &gt;90% of global REE concentrate
LYC is the only LREE producer outside China of any note
Current focus on environmental problems and future capex secondary concerns
Potential mine expansion at Mt Weld
MOU regarding strategic processing in the US
Future margin expansion following recent REE price rises (~33% in a week)
Pensana Metals (PM8 AU) as a Speculative BUY

Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU) focus on Mallee Bull a possible distraction

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN), Black Cat Syndicate (ASX: BC8), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Troy Resources (TRY AU), Australian Vanadium (AVL AU), Predictive Discovery (PDI AU), Vango Mining (VAN AU), Carawine Resources (ASX: CWX)


New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 31/05/19)

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

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<ul class="">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6698" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> Recommend BUY
</li>
<li>Gruyere JV (50/50) 91% complete, on schedule and budget</li>
<li>150koz pa Au attributable production to GOR, first bullion pour Q219</li>
<li>
Forecast EBIT $A74-84m pa, substantial cashflows starting Q419</li>
<li>
Price/EBIT ratio 8 to 9.1, A$44m cash - no debt</li>
<li>Own virtually the entire Yamarna Greenstone Belt (~ 6,500km2) </li>
<li>A$20m 2019 exploration budget - exceptional prospectivity</li>
<li>Corporate takeover target likely by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25109" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10152" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10152:1">Aura Energy Ltd (AEE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4293" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4293:1">Catalyst Metals (CYL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20488" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11276" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11276:1">Millennium Minerals (MOY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12743" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12743:1">Southern Gold (SAU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5124" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10577" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10577:1">Focus Minerals (FML AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14492" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14492:1">Oklo Resources (OKU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7940" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14062:1">Troy Resources (TRY AU)</a>
</li>
</ul>



Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) Recommend BUY

Gruyere JV (50/50) 91% complete, on schedule and budget
150koz pa Au attributable production to GOR, first bullion pour Q219

Forecast EBIT $A74-84m pa, substantial cashflows starting Q419

Price/EBIT ratio 8 to 9.1, A$44m cash - no debt
Own virtually the entire Yamarna Greenstone Belt (~ 6,500km2) 
A$20m 2019 exploration budget - exceptional prospectivity
Corporate takeover target likely by Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)

Aura Energy Ltd (AEE AU), Catalyst Metals (CYL AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Millennium Minerals (MOY AU), Southern Gold (SAU AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Focus Minerals (FML AU), Oklo Resources (OKU AU), Red 5 Ltd (RED AU), Troy Resources (TRY AU)



New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 01/02/19)

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

<div>In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.</div><ul>
<li>Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).</li>
<li>Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.</li>
<li>The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…</li>
</ul>

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.
Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).
Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.
The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…


Australia

Troy Resources Limited is a junior gold producer. The Company has operations at Andorinhas in Para State, Brazil and Casposo in San Juan Province, Argentina.

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