Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Major global indices have relegated Russia to the "standalone" and "unclassified" market status. Talk of significant flows into major non-Russia EM markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, etc is misguided. </li>
<li>Even if OLX and VK Group are written down to zero, the fall in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s implied stub has overshot the mark</li>
<li>The founder and former chairman and CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> has passed away. The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.</li>
</ul>


Major global indices have relegated Russia to the "standalone" and "unclassified" market status. Talk of significant flows into major non-Russia EM markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, etc is misguided. 
Even if OLX and VK Group are written down to zero, the fall in Prosus (PRX NA)'s implied stub has overshot the mark
The founder and former chairman and CEO of Nexon (3659 JP) has passed away. The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Russia/Indices, Prosus, Virtus, Crown, Nexon, Hitachi Metals

<ul>
<li>There are currently 43 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/far-eastone-telecomm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19488:1" rel="noopener">Far Eastone Telecomm (4904 TT)</a> merging with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-pacific-telecom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19657:1" rel="noopener">Asia Pacific Telecom (3682 TT)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> merging with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp (TRUE TB)</a> 
</li>
</ul>


There are currently 43 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deals this week: Far Eastone Telecomm (4904 TT) merging with Asia Pacific Telecom (3682 TT); Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) merging with Sezzle Inc (SZL AU).
Key updates took place for: Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP), Virtus Health (VRT AU), Crown Resorts (CWN AU), Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) / True Corp (TRUE TB) 



Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Asia Pacific Telecom, Sezzle, Singapore Press, DTAC/True

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Thailand's Trade Competition Commission said that only the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission has the authority to block the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp (TRUE TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>At issue, the government appears to be stonewalling the transition of the NBTC board, potentially abetting the merger. </li>
<li>Both True and DTAC are trading through their VTO terms, ignoring dividends.</li>
</ul>


Thailand's Trade Competition Commission said that only the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission has the authority to block the True Corp (TRUE TB) / Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) merger.
At issue, the government appears to be stonewalling the transition of the NBTC board, potentially abetting the merger. 
Both True and DTAC are trading through their VTO terms, ignoring dividends.


<ul>
<li>For the month of February, 12 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in February was ~36%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of February, 12 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in February was ~36%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<ul>
<li>We are launching coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/destiny-investment-token" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35642:1" rel="noopener">Destiny Investment Token (DESTINY CURNCY)</a> (DESTINY) which will be classified as an investment token in Thailand.</li>
<li>At 2.99%, the 2-year callable tokens are not attractive, in our view.</li>
<li>The on-going COVID-19 will pose a risk that the conditional THB1bn box office (for additional 2.01% return) will not be easily achievable.</li>
</ul>


We are launching coverage of Destiny Investment Token (DESTINY CURNCY) (DESTINY) which will be classified as an investment token in Thailand.
At 2.99%, the 2-year callable tokens are not attractive, in our view.
The on-going COVID-19 will pose a risk that the conditional THB1bn box office (for additional 2.01% return) will not be easily achievable.


Destiny Investment Token: Destined Only for the Fans

Thailand

True Corporation PCL is an integrated telecommunications provider. The Company offers a wide range of voice, video, and data services, including dial-up and broadband Internet services, pay television, fixed-line phone, online games, and mobile phone services.

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True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Russia/Indices, Prosus, Virtus, Crown, Nexon, Hitachi Metals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Asia Pacific Telecom, Sezzle, Singapore Press, DTAC/True

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

NBTC To Decide On True/DTAC Merger

Long DTAC short TRUE trade at the current price ratio, using a share ratio in the 9.7x range. If the deal goes through, you are long deal risk at a...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: February 2022 Roundup

For the month of February, 12 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn. The average premium for the...

David Blennerhassett

Destiny Investment Token: Destined Only for the Fans

We are launching coverage of Thailand's Destiny Investment Token. At 2.99%, the 2-year callable tokens are not attractive without a recourse to the...

Bondcritic

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