Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates.</li>
<li>OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit.</li>
<li>DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates.
OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit.
DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.


This Week in AI (Oct 4-10): Haiku 5.5's Throat-Cutting Prices; OpenAI Revenue Trails Expectation

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)</a> closed the week up at 2,475. The stock has been flattening in the last few weeks, since the end of June, capped below 2,500.</li>
<li>Recent news indicates TSMC is raising advanced process node prices by up to 6% due to constrained foundry capacity extending through 2030. Scheduled to take effect starting January 1, 2027.</li>
<li>Sentiment remains highly bullish, driven by persistent AI demand, 1-year price analysts targets sit at ~TWD 3,175-3,224 (implying significant upside), with top-end estimates up to TWD 4,200. </li>
</ul>



TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) closed the week up at 2,475. The stock has been flattening in the last few weeks, since the end of June, capped below 2,500.
Recent news indicates TSMC is raising advanced process node prices by up to 6% due to constrained foundry capacity extending through 2030. Scheduled to take effect starting January 1, 2027.
Sentiment remains highly bullish, driven by persistent AI demand, 1-year price analysts targets sit at ~TWD 3,175-3,224 (implying significant upside), with top-end estimates up to TWD 4,200. 


TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical Outlook After 6% Foundry Wafer Price Increase Announcement

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +12.2% Premium; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ChipMOS: +3.6% Premium; Above +1 SD Band; Short the ADR Spread</li>
<li>UMC: +0.2% Premium; Within Historical Range; No Active Trade Signal</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +12.2% Premium; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread
ChipMOS: +3.6% Premium; Above +1 SD Band; Short the ADR Spread
UMC: +0.2% Premium; Within Historical Range; No Active Trade Signal


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Still Near Two-Year Lows; ChipMOS Premium Tops Its Band

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass. There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $158-$159,...</li>
<li>...MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) is above $76.50, MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) is above its 6-month base at $105-$105.50, and MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $63-$63.50.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).
We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass. There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $158-$159,...
...MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) is above $76.50, MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) is above its 6-month base at $105-$105.50, and MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $63-$63.50.


Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159

<ul>
<li>Wistron and Quanta drove most of the chain's August revenue growth, about 80% of the sequential increase, while notebook-heavy Inventec and Compal fell below their own seasonal pattern.</li>
<li>Memory revenue held July's level rather than extending it: the six names grew 2.7% MoM after +32% in July, and Nanya was flat against +26% last August.</li>
<li>Chip designers ran well ahead of seasonal: MediaTek's revenue grew 32% MoM against 3% last August, unexplained in its filing, and Alchip's custom AI chip revenue grew again.</li>
</ul>


Wistron and Quanta drove most of the chain's August revenue growth, about 80% of the sequential increase, while notebook-heavy Inventec and Compal fell below their own seasonal pattern.
Memory revenue held July's level rather than extending it: the six names grew 2.7% MoM after +32% in July, and Nanya was flat against +26% last August.
Chip designers ran well ahead of seasonal: MediaTek's revenue grew 32% MoM against 3% last August, unexplained in its filing, and Alchip's custom AI chip revenue grew again.


Taiwan Supply Chain Signals: Wistron & Quanta Drive AI Server Revenue Jump; Memory Sales Level Off

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

This Week in AI (Oct 4-10): Haiku 5.5's Throat-Cutting Prices; OpenAI Revenue Trails Expectation

This week in AI: Anthropic cut prices by up to 90% with Claude Haiku 5.5, OpenAI's annualized revenue reached about USD 50bn, and Moonshot closed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical Outlook After 6% Foundry Wafer Price Increase Announcement

TSMC (2330 TT)'s rally has reached a possible inflection point. Our model flags a reversal risk: 1-2 week dip, tactical opportunity to buy at...

Nico Rosti

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Still Near Two-Year Lows; ChipMOS Premium Tops Its Band

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159

Premarket Report: Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159. $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Supply Chain Signals: Wistron & Quanta Drive AI Server Revenue Jump; Memory Sales Level Off

Wistron and Quanta drove most of the chain's August revenue growth, about 80% of the sequential increase, while notebook-heavy Inventec and Compal...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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