'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div><p>Tuesday's 'best' and 'worst' larger-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/askul-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16807:1" rel="noopener">Askul (2678 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a>. For more, see the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below. Of the 21 results announcements, 48% scored positively for earnings momentum. Trailing revenues are still declining  - by 8.3% on average, while quarterly revenues fell by 5.6% year-on-year. Trailing operating margins saw an average 5.2 point decline. 29% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  67% of the 43 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively. The average Forecast/Revision score was a positive 6.2 points.</p></div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/919/original/image?1615934988" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194919"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/918/original/image?1615934987" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194918"></figure></section>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Tuesday's 'best' and 'worst' larger-cap announcements came from Askul (2678 JP) and Tsuruha (3391 JP). For more, see the DETAIL section below. Of the 21 results announcements, 48% scored positively for earnings momentum. Trailing revenues are still declining  - by 8.3% on average, while quarterly revenues fell by 5.6% year-on-year. Trailing operating margins saw an average 5.2 point decline. 29% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  67% of the 43 annual forecasts/revision announcements scored positively. The average Forecast/Revision score was a positive 6.2 points.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​16 - Askul & Tsuruha

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p><strong>The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector by format with a brief overview of incomes and consumption trends and metrics before that. For any investor looking at the Japanese consumer/retail space, this insight will provide a rapid overview of all the major trends.</strong></p><p>2020 was a year to remember, although not for good reasons. While the news was overwhelmingly negative given the devastation that the pandemic caused to so many lives, for Japan as a country the experience could become a catalyst to spur positive change.</p><p>No matter how much we might never wish to repeat the last 12 months, those governments and companies that learn from the experience will be better positioned whenever a new pandemic emerges.</p><p>Department stores, convenience stores, and most fashion chains had a horrible year as so many people stayed away from major shopping areas, but many other retailers actually had stellar years, with further upside still to come. </p>

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector by format with a brief overview of incomes and consumption trends and metrics before that. For any investor looking at the Japanese consumer/retail space, this insight will provide a rapid overview of all the major trends.2020 was a year to remember, although not for good reasons. While the news was overwhelmingly negative given the devastation that the pandemic caused to so many lives, for Japan as a country the experience could become a catalyst to spur positive change.No matter how much we might never wish to repeat the last 12 months, those governments and companies that learn from the experience will be better positioned whenever a new pandemic emerges.Department stores, convenience stores, and most fashion chains had a horrible year as so many people stayed away from major shopping areas, but many other retailers actually had stellar years, with further upside still to come. 

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• $ BREAKOUT •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/831/original/2021-01-11_09-50-40.png?1610326256" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181831"></figure></section><p><strong>NEW $ HIGH</strong> - The TOPIX index posted a new post-bubble high in US dollar terms on Friday, exceeding the previous high of January 31st 2018. A new high in Yen terms is only 3% away and, given the current sentiment, should also be reached this month. As the market factors in the possibility of a return to commodity inflation and digests another State of Emergency, the <strong>Technology Hardware</strong> Sector joins <strong>Electrical Equipment</strong> and <strong>Machinery</strong> in Overbought territory. <strong>Energy</strong> and<strong> Metals</strong> stocks have seen a significant rebound while the COVID 'losers' <strong>Restaurants</strong>, <strong>Transportation</strong>, <strong>Real Estate</strong> &amp; <strong>REITs</strong>, and <strong>Consumer Service</strong>s Sectors search for new relative lows.   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/832/original/2021-01-11_10-55-08.png?1610330120" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181832"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/833/original/2021-01-11_10-55-34.png?1610330145" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181833"></figure></section><p><strong>MARKET PER 33X</strong> -The market rally has pushed the forward earnings multiple back up to 33 times discounting one or more years of recovery.  </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/875/original/2021-01-11_14-38-44.png?1610343543" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181875"></figure></section><p><strong>SECTOR OP TRENDS</strong> - The only Sectors with rising operating income over the last three months are<strong> Energy</strong>, <strong> Internet Content &amp; Services</strong>, <strong>Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco</strong>,  <strong>Utilities</strong> and <strong>Other Consumer Products</strong>. The largest declines are in<strong> Consumer Services</strong>,<strong> Transport</strong>, <strong>Restaurants</strong>, <strong>Healthcare</strong> and <strong>Telecommunications</strong>.   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/876/original/2021-01-11_14-54-40.png?1610344493" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181876"></figure></section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/878/original/2021-01-11_14-58-55.png?1610344748" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181878"></figure></section><p><strong>REVISIONS ▲ RESULTS ►</strong> - Our momentum-based scoring methodology has seen a strong upturn in the Forecast/Revision Score and a more muted recovery in the trailing Results Score. The Sectors with the strongest upward momentum are <strong>Autos</strong>, <strong>Machinery</strong>,<strong> Electrical Equipment</strong>, <strong>Metals</strong> and <strong>Multi-Industry</strong>-  all but the last have outperformed over the last three months. Lagging Sectors include <strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/efjcusx11m46con/2021-01-11_15-29-27.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Media</a></strong>, <strong>Non-Bank Finance</strong>,<strong> Information Technology</strong>, <strong>Retail</strong>, <strong>Energy</strong> and <strong>Transportation</strong>. </p></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/880/original/2021-01-11_15-14-41.png?1610345693" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181880"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/881/original/2021-01-11_15-29-27.png?1610346581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181881"></figure></section><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Friday's best and worst large-cap pairing is cutting-tool specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19178:1" rel="noopener">OSG (6136 JP)</a> and drugstore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a>.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/937/original/2021-01-12_06-44-33.png?1610401488" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181937"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/938/original/2021-01-12_06-45-03.png?1610401520" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181938"></figure></section>

• $ BREAKOUT •NEW $ HIGH - The TOPIX index posted a new post-bubble high in US dollar terms on Friday, exceeding the previous high of January 31st 2018. A new high in Yen terms is only 3% away and, given the current sentiment, should also be reached this month. As the market factors in the possibility of a return to commodity inflation and digests another State of Emergency, the Technology Hardware Sector joins Electrical Equipment and Machinery in Overbought territory. Energy and Metals stocks have seen a significant rebound while the COVID 'losers' Restaurants, Transportation, Real Estate &amp; REITs, and Consumer Services Sectors search for new relative lows.   MARKET PER 33X -The market rally has pushed the forward earnings multiple back up to 33 times discounting one or more years of recovery.  SECTOR OP TRENDS - The only Sectors with rising operating income over the last three months are Energy,  Internet Content &amp; Services, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco,  Utilities and Other Consumer Products. The largest declines are in Consumer Services, Transport, Restaurants, Healthcare and Telecommunications.   REVISIONS ▲ RESULTS ► - Our momentum-based scoring methodology has seen a strong upturn in the Forecast/Revision Score and a more muted recovery in the trailing Results Score. The Sectors with the strongest upward momentum are Autos, Machinery, Electrical Equipment, Metals and Multi-Industry-  all but the last have outperformed over the last three months. Lagging Sectors include Media, Non-Bank Finance, Information Technology, Retail, Energy and Transportation. • BEST &amp; WORST •Friday's best and worst large-cap pairing is cutting-tool specialist OSG (6136 JP) and drugstore Welcia (3141 JP).

🇯🇵 JAPAN • New Post Bubble $ High + Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​08

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>MSCI Japan June 2026 added 3 stocks and deleted 14. With the first implementation week complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history.</li>
<li>ADDs gave back after a positive bridge. All 3 ADDs fell in WI0-4, with aggregate return of -9.0% vs the historical ADD mean of -2.9%.</li>
<li>DELETEs rose +3.4% in WI0-4, the strongest first-week result in the study history. Low-velocity DELETEs also rose, returning +2.6% across 4 names with data.</li>
</ul>


MSCI Japan June 2026 added 3 stocks and deleted 14. With the first implementation week complete, we review current-cycle performance vs history.
ADDs gave back after a positive bridge. All 3 ADDs fell in WI0-4, with aggregate return of -9.0% vs the historical ADD mean of -2.9%.
DELETEs rose +3.4% in WI0-4, the strongest first-week result in the study history. Low-velocity DELETEs also rose, returning +2.6% across 4 names with data.


MS-Japan June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST • </strong></p><p>Tuesday's best and worst pair is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/askul-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16807:1" rel="noopener">Askul (2678 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-bottlers-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20051:1" rel="noopener">Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP)</a>.  </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/802/original/2020-12-16_06-23-51.png?1608067445" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178802"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/803/original/2020-12-16_06-24-41.png?1608067495" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178803"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics    </div><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a></strong>- Drugstore Tsuruha also reported interim results and revised up modestly. Although the results are commendable and the shares are close to a new post-listing, Tsuruha shares have been a relative underperformer since May. We do not expect that to change in their second half.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/804/original/2020-12-16_06-27-31.png?1608067665" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178804"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/805/original/2020-12-16_06-27-59.png?1608067693" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178805"></figure></section>

• BEST &amp; WORST • Tuesday's best and worst pair is Askul (2678 JP) and Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP).  Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics    Tsuruha (3391 JP)- Drugstore Tsuruha also reported interim results and revised up modestly. Although the results are commendable and the shares are close to a new post-listing, Tsuruha shares have been a relative underperformer since May. We do not expect that to change in their second half.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​15 Askul, Coca-Cola B,Tsuruha

Japan

TSURUHA HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company which manages subsidiaries that operate drug stores in Hokkaido and the Tohoku area.  The Company's product line includes drugs, cosmetics, and household utensils.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/16 - Askul & Tsuruha

Tuesday's 'best' and 'worst' larger-cap announcements came from Askul (2678 JP) and Tsuruha (3391 JP). For more, see the DETAIL section below.

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

An in-depth update for investors in Japan's retail and consumer space on Japan's retail sector by retail type as well as a review of the impact of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • New Post Bubble $ High + Results & Revisions 01/08

NEW $ HIGH - The TOPIX index posted a new post-bubble high in US dollar terms on Friday, exceeding the previous high of January 31st 2018. A new...

Campbell Gunn

MS-Japan June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

MSCI Japan June 2026 rebalance has passed the first post-implementation week. We review what worked, what did not, and how current results compare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/15 Askul, Coca-Cola B,Tsuruha

• BEST & WORST • Tuesday's best and worst pair is Askul (2678 JP) and Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP)....................

Campbell Gunn

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​16 - Askul & Tsuruha

Tuesday's 'best' and 'worst' larger-cap announcements came from Askul (2678 JP) and Tsuruha (3391 JP). For more, see the DETAIL section below.

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Full Review 2020-2021: Some Retail Sectors Outperform in a Pandemic

An in-depth update for investors in Japan's retail and consumer space on Japan's retail sector by retail type as well as a review of the impact of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • New Post Bubble $ High + Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/​​​08

NEW $ HIGH - The TOPIX index posted a new post-bubble high in US dollar terms on Friday, exceeding the previous high of January 31st 2018. A new...

Campbell Gunn

MS-Japan June 2026 Rebalance: Post-Implementation Review

MSCI Japan June 2026 rebalance has passed the first post-implementation week. We review what worked, what did not, and how current results compare...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​15 Askul, Coca-Cola B,Tsuruha

• BEST & WORST • Tuesday's best and worst pair is Askul (2678 JP) and Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP)....................

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/16 - Askul & Tsuruha

🇯🇵 JAPAN • New Post Bubble $ High + Results & Revisions 01/08

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/15 Askul, Coca-Cola B,Tsuruha