Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We see the recent plunge in share price (17% in past 20 days) was due to the concerns over contract expiry of PTW (subsidiary of TTW) in Oct 2023.</li>
<li>3Q22 earnings to improve QoQ We estimate the 3Q22 net profit to be at Bt916m (-2% YoY, +12%QoQ).The QoQ growth will be due to higher equity income contribution from CKP</li>
<li>The profit from core operations (tap water sales) should slightly improve 1%QoQ on the back of rising demand brought on by increased travel and tourism as well as a recovery </li>
</ul>


We see the recent plunge in share price (17% in past 20 days) was due to the concerns over contract expiry of PTW (subsidiary of TTW) in Oct 2023.
3Q22 earnings to improve QoQ We estimate the 3Q22 net profit to be at Bt916m (-2% YoY, +12%QoQ).The QoQ growth will be due to higher equity income contribution from CKP
The profit from core operations (tap water sales) should slightly improve 1%QoQ on the back of rising demand brought on by increased travel and tourism as well as a recovery 


TTW : 3Q22 Earnings to Improve QoQ While Soften YoY

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The 2Q22 net profit fell 4% YoY.</li><li>The 2Q22 net profit fell short of our expectation by 10%, as revenue was also below the forecast by 10%.</li><li>We maintain an Underperform rating, as the share price is fully valued.</li></ul>

The 2Q22 net profit fell 4% YoY.The 2Q22 net profit fell short of our expectation by 10%, as revenue was also below the forecast by 10%.We maintain an Underperform rating, as the share price is fully valued.

Earnings Reviews (NETBAY, SIS, TTW, WICE)

<ul>
<li>We expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve QoQ from seasonal higher equity income from CKP. However,core operations should weaken due to lower tap water sales. Overall 2022 outlook remains bleak </li>
<li>2Q22 earnings to surge QoQ while soften YoY We estimate the 2Q22 net profit to be at Bt833m (-3%YoY, +36%QoQ). The QoQ growth will be due to higher equity income </li>
<li>The equity income should grow to Bt185m (+5%YoY, +&gt;100% QoQ), thanks to seasonal better hydro powerplant operations. Moreover, the Increase of CKP stake in XPCL (37.5% to 42.5% in 3Q21) </li>
</ul>


We expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve QoQ from seasonal higher equity income from CKP. However,core operations should weaken due to lower tap water sales. Overall 2022 outlook remains bleak 
2Q22 earnings to surge QoQ while soften YoY We estimate the 2Q22 net profit to be at Bt833m (-3%YoY, +36%QoQ). The QoQ growth will be due to higher equity income 
The equity income should grow to Bt185m (+5%YoY, +&gt;100% QoQ), thanks to seasonal better hydro powerplant operations. Moreover, the Increase of CKP stake in XPCL (37.5% to 42.5% in 3Q21) 


TTW : Better Seasonality Will Drive 2Q22 Earnings

<ul>
<li>We downgrade the rating to HOLD from BUY and revise down the target price by 22% to Bt11.70 due to weak earnings outlook from low tap water demand on account </li>
<li>1Q22 net profit dropped to Bt613m (-13% YoY, -1% QoQ), a 4-year low. The result came out lower than our expectation.</li>
<li>The YoY earnings drop was due to decline in gross margin, higher SG&amp;A to sales and lower share of profit from CKP.Meanwhile, revenue dropped 4% YoY dragged by lower sales </li>
</ul>


We downgrade the rating to HOLD from BUY and revise down the target price by 22% to Bt11.70 due to weak earnings outlook from low tap water demand on account 
1Q22 net profit dropped to Bt613m (-13% YoY, -1% QoQ), a 4-year low. The result came out lower than our expectation.
The YoY earnings drop was due to decline in gross margin, higher SG&amp;A to sales and lower share of profit from CKP.Meanwhile, revenue dropped 4% YoY dragged by lower sales 


TTW: Bleak 2022 Outlook and Recovery Thereafter

<ul>
<li>We expect 4Q21E net profit at Bt736m (+7%YoY, -21%QoQ), dropping QoQ due to lower equity income contribution from power plant business.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, 4Q21 earnings from tap water business will reach 19 quarter low at Bt624m due to lower demand from both industrial customers and PWA.</li>
<li>Revise down 2021-23 earnings slightly to reflect weaker demand for tap water.</li>
</ul>


We expect 4Q21E net profit at Bt736m (+7%YoY, -21%QoQ), dropping QoQ due to lower equity income contribution from power plant business.
Meanwhile, 4Q21 earnings from tap water business will reach 19 quarter low at Bt624m due to lower demand from both industrial customers and PWA.
Revise down 2021-23 earnings slightly to reflect weaker demand for tap water.


TTW: Expect Profit from Equity Income to Support 2022 Earnings Growth

Thailand

TTW Public Company Limited primarily engages in the production and distribution of treated water to the Provincial Waterworks Authority (PWA) in various districts of Nakhon Pathom and Samut Sakhon provinces in Thailand. The company also offers water treatment and maintenance services, manages wastewater treatment systems, and operates water supply projects. TTW Public Company Limited was founded on September 11, 2000, and is headquartered in Sam Phran, Thailand.

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TTW (TTW TB)

TTW : 3Q22 Earnings to Improve QoQ While Soften YoY

We see the recent plunge in share price (17% in past 20 days) was due to the concerns over contract expiry of PTW (subsidiary of TTW) in Oct 2023....

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Earnings Reviews (NETBAY, SIS, TTW, WICE)

The 2Q22 net profit fell 4% YoY. The 2Q22 net profit fell short of our expectation by 10%, as revenue was also below the forecast by 10%. We...

Krungthai XSpring

TTW : Better Seasonality Will Drive 2Q22 Earnings

We expect the 2Q22 earnings to improve QoQ from seasonal higher equity income from CKP. However, core operations should weaken due to lower tap...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TTW: Bleak 2022 Outlook and Recovery Thereafter

We downgrade the rating to HOLD from BUY and revise down the target price by 22% to Bt11.70 due to weak earnings outlook from low tap water demand...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TTW: Expect Profit from Equity Income to Support 2022 Earnings Growth

We expect 4Q21E net profit at Bt736m (+7%YoY, -21%QoQ), dropping QoQ due to lower equity income contribution from power plant business.

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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