Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<div><strong>Chartonics FX webcast action points and update</strong></div><p>Friday 23 June 2017</p><div>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/lMElqa3fOv7C" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.screencast.com/t/lMElqa3fOv7C&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1498489374618000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGAZR6j303TZQKzu0YM9jsj-fiejQ">https://www.screencast.com/t/lMElqa3fOv7C</a> </strong>8:11 min.</div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/028/598/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1498404333" data-smartkarma-image-id="28598"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div><div>Action points:</div><p>AUD - Sliced into AUD long at 0.7550 with an add level at 0.75. Upside tactical target at 0.7650+. SL just under 0.75.</p><div>USD/SGD long from 1.3855 - Could not clear 1.3920 which was the rejection level that if not surpassed was a signal to exit this long. We sold just under 1.39 and will re evaluate re setting on weakness below 1.38.</div><p>…</p>

Chartonics FX webcast action points and updateFriday 23 June 2017To view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/lMElqa3fOv7C 8:11 min.FX webcastAction points:AUD - Sliced into AUD long at 0.7550 with an add level at 0.75. Upside tactical target at 0.7650+. SL just under 0.75.USD/SGD long from 1.3855 - Could not clear 1.3920 which was the rejection level that if not surpassed was a signal to exit this long. We sold just under 1.39 and will re evaluate re setting on weakness below 1.38.…

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<strong>Chartonics FX weekly   </strong>Thursday 4 May 2017</div><div><strong>The Le Pin pattern</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/XSR1ZQ2GA" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/XSR1ZQ2GA</a> </strong>13:33 min.</p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/025/495/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1493874655" data-smartkarma-image-id="25495"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
<p><strong>DXY </strong>– DXY 99 support has held with some noise and formed a “Le Pin” congestion pattern with a binary outcome due Monday. Ideally, we see the USD bounce to close the gap near 99.50. US yields starting to play a bigger role given increased odds of a June Fed rate hike but will be overshadowed by the French election move. We do feel a Macron win is for…</p>
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Chartonics FX weekly   Thursday 4 May 2017The Le Pin patternTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/XSR1ZQ2GA 13:33 min.
FX webcast
DXY – DXY 99 support has held with some noise and formed a “Le Pin” congestion pattern with a binary outcome due Monday. Ideally, we see the USD bounce to close the gap near 99.50. US yields starting to play a bigger role given increased odds of a June Fed rate hike but will be overshadowed by the French election move. We do feel a Macron win is for…


Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<p>Dollarization does not appear to be an 'active' decision by market participants. &nbsp;Unfortunately it is starting to cause issues for the banking sector, leading to rapid growth in off balance sheet derivative positions. &nbsp;Some banks are managing the gap, others seem to be struggling.</p><p>We also consider the factors contributing to the weakness of the Lira, the central bank is culpable.</p>

Dollarization does not appear to be an 'active' decision by market participants. &nbsp;Unfortunately it is starting to cause issues for the banking sector, leading to rapid growth in off balance sheet derivative positions. &nbsp;Some banks are managing the gap, others seem to be struggling.We also consider the factors contributing to the weakness of the Lira, the central bank is culpable.

TURKEY:  The 'accidental' Dollarization and what is 'off' bank's balance sheets

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.</li>
<li>The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.</li>
<li>High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.</li>
</ul>


The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.
The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.
High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.


Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

<ul>
<li>Given the current uncertainties stemming from the Fed monetary tightening and Russia's invasion, trading opportunities are creeping up as short-term mispricing tend to occur in such environments.</li>
<li>One such opportunity could be the South African rand, which has outperformed on a year-to-date basis relative to other emerging market currencies.</li>
<li>I see headwinds for the rand: the carry is low in real terms and versus volatility, the current account is set to deteriorate, growth remains a concern and it's expensive.</li>
</ul>


Given the current uncertainties stemming from the Fed monetary tightening and Russia's invasion, trading opportunities are creeping up as short-term mispricing tend to occur in such environments.
One such opportunity could be the South African rand, which has outperformed on a year-to-date basis relative to other emerging market currencies.
I see headwinds for the rand: the carry is low in real terms and versus volatility, the current account is set to deteriorate, growth remains a concern and it's expensive.


South African Rand’s Outperformance Is Overdone

Turkey

The Turkish lira is the official currency of the Republic of Turkey. 

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Fresh EM FX Positioning

Chartonics FX webcast action points and updateFriday 23 June 2017To view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/lMElqa3fOv7C 8:11...

Thomas Schroeder

The Le Pin Pattern

Chartonics FX weekly Thursday 4 May 2017The Le Pin patternTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/XSR1ZQ2GA 13:33 min. DXY –...

Thomas Schroeder

TURKEY: The 'accidental' Dollarization and what is 'off' bank's balance sheets

Dollarization does not appear to be an 'active' decision by market participants. Unfortunately it is starting to cause issues for the banking...

Mark Artherton

Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

The Turkish lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

South African Rand’s Outperformance Is Overdone

I see headwinds for the South African rand: the carry is not attractive in real terms or relative to volatility, the current account is set to...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

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