Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We screen our coverage universe for earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives to identify fundamental longs.</li>
<li>Stocks discussed include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honasa-consumer-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36117:1" rel="noopener">Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN)</a> </li>
<li>TVSL EVs could surprise, NEST offers the right safety in the current environment, and for HONASA there is a possibility of turning around. </li>
</ul>


We screen our coverage universe for earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives to identify fundamental longs.
Stocks discussed include TVS Motor (TVSL IN), Nestle India (NEST IN), and Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN) 
TVSL EVs could surprise, NEST offers the right safety in the current environment, and for HONASA there is a possibility of turning around. 


Fundamental Longs - TVS Motors | Nestle India | Honasa

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>TVSL Motors Ltd. (TVSL) Q3FY24 numbers were largely in line with our Revenue and EBITDA estimates with a Beat on PAT. Revenue (inline) grew by ~26% YoY (1% QoQ), mainly led by higher sales volumes (up ~25%/2% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>EBITDA (inline) grew by ~40% YoY (3% QoQ), mainly led by gross margin expansion on account of commodity softening and price hikes taken during the year partly offset by higher marketing expenses towards new product launches.</li><li>GM’s improved by 183 bps YoY (32bps QoQ) basis to ~26.3%. PAT grew by robust ~68% YoY (11% QoQ) and 9.7% beat largely on account of higher other income (Rs 73 Cr).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

TVSL Motors Ltd. (TVSL) Q3FY24 numbers were largely in line with our Revenue and EBITDA estimates with a Beat on PAT. Revenue (inline) grew by ~26% YoY (1% QoQ), mainly led by higher sales volumes (up ~25%/2% YoY/QoQ).EBITDA (inline) grew by ~40% YoY (3% QoQ), mainly led by gross margin expansion on account of commodity softening and price hikes taken during the year partly offset by higher marketing expenses towards new product launches.GM’s improved by 183 bps YoY (32bps QoQ) basis to ~26.3%. PAT grew by robust ~68% YoY (11% QoQ) and 9.7% beat largely on account of higher other income (Rs 73 Cr).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TVS Motor Co Ltd - Robust Q3FY24; New Launches to Boost Growth!

<ul><li>TVS Motors Ltd. (TVSL) Q2FY24 numbers were largely in line with our Revenue and EBITDA estimates with a slight Beat on PAT.</li><li>Revenue (inline) grew by ~13% YoY/QoQ, both led by higher sales volumes (up ~5%/13% YoY/QoQ) and higher ASP due to price hikes during the year and a richer product mix.</li><li>EBITDA (inline) grew by ~22%/18% YoY/QoQ, mainly led by gross margin expansion and better product sales mix, partly offset by higher marketing expenses.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

TVS Motors Ltd. (TVSL) Q2FY24 numbers were largely in line with our Revenue and EBITDA estimates with a slight Beat on PAT.Revenue (inline) grew by ~13% YoY/QoQ, both led by higher sales volumes (up ~5%/13% YoY/QoQ) and higher ASP due to price hikes during the year and a richer product mix.EBITDA (inline) grew by ~22%/18% YoY/QoQ, mainly led by gross margin expansion and better product sales mix, partly offset by higher marketing expenses.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TVS Motor Co Ltd - Inline Q2; Exports Boost to Drive Growth!

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>TVS Motors Ltd (TVSL) Q1FY24 numbers missed ours and streets estimate. Revenue (2% miss) grew by 20%/9% YoY/QoQ led by higher sales volumes (up 5%/10% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>Revenue miss was led by a 2% miss on ASP which grew by 14% YoY on account of price hikes taken over last year, but stood down by 0.4% QoQ despite QoQ increase in volumes.</li><li>EBITDA grew by 27%/12% YoY/QoQ but missed ours and street’s estimate by 5% and 2.4%, mainly led by higher other and personal expenses which stood 8% and 3% ahead of our estimates. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

TVS Motors Ltd (TVSL) Q1FY24 numbers missed ours and streets estimate. Revenue (2% miss) grew by 20%/9% YoY/QoQ led by higher sales volumes (up 5%/10% YoY/QoQ).Revenue miss was led by a 2% miss on ASP which grew by 14% YoY on account of price hikes taken over last year, but stood down by 0.4% QoQ despite QoQ increase in volumes.EBITDA grew by 27%/12% YoY/QoQ but missed ours and street’s estimate by 5% and 2.4%, mainly led by higher other and personal expenses which stood 8% and 3% ahead of our estimates. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

TVS Motors - Overall Miss; But Growth Levers Intact!

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 9 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 10 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Following a strong listing, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN)</a> should be added to the Large Cap segment of the market in July.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other migrations by a huge margin over the last couple of months and there could be profit taking ahead.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 9 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 9 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 10 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
Following a strong listing, Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN) should be added to the Large Cap segment of the market in July.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other migrations by a huge margin over the last couple of months and there could be profit taking ahead.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Significant Outperformance

India

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

TVS Motor (TVSL IN)

Fundamental Longs - TVS Motors | Nestle India | Honasa

Identifying fundamental longs through earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives. TVS Motor, Nestle India, and Honasa Consumer.

Pranav Bhavsar

TVS Motor Co Ltd - Robust Q3FY24; New Launches to Boost Growth!

GM’s improved by 183 bps YoY (32bps QoQ) basis to ~26.3%. PAT grew by robust ~68% YoY (11% QoQ) and 9.7% beat largely on account of higher other...

Axis Direct

TVS Motor Co Ltd - Inline Q2; Exports Boost to Drive Growth!

EBITDA (inline) grew by ~22%/18% YoY/QoQ, mainly led by gross margin expansion and better product sales mix, partly offset by higher marketing...

Axis Direct

TVS Motors - Overall Miss; But Growth Levers Intact!

TVS Motors Ltd (TVSL) Q1FY24 numbers missed ours and streets estimate. Revenue (2% miss) grew by 20%/9% YoY/QoQ led by higher sales volumes (up 5%...

Axis Direct

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Significant Outperformance

With the review period nearing completion, there are a lot of migrations between size segments. SmallCap to MidCap migrations have outperformed....

Brian Freitas

Fundamental Longs - TVS Motors | Nestle India | Honasa

​Identifying fundamental longs through earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives. TVS Motor, Nestle India, and Honasa Consumer.

Pranav Bhavsar

TVS Motor Co Ltd - Robust Q3FY24; New Launches to Boost Growth!

GM’s improved by 183 bps YoY (32bps QoQ) basis to ~26.3%. PAT grew by robust ~68% YoY (11% QoQ) and 9.7% beat largely on account of higher other...

Axis Direct

TVS Motor Co Ltd - Inline Q2; Exports Boost to Drive Growth!

EBITDA (inline) grew by ~22%/18% YoY/QoQ, mainly led by gross margin expansion and better product sales mix, partly offset by higher marketing...

Axis Direct

TVS Motors - Overall Miss; But Growth Levers Intact!

TVS Motors Ltd (TVSL) Q1FY24 numbers missed ours and streets estimate. Revenue (2% miss) grew by 20%/9% YoY/QoQ led by higher sales volumes (up 5%...

Axis Direct

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023): Significant Outperformance

With the review period nearing completion, there are a lot of migrations between size segments. SmallCap to MidCap migrations have outperformed....

Brian Freitas

Identifying fundamental longs through earnings surprises, EPS upgrades, and management narratives. TVS Motor, Nestle India, and Honasa Consumer.