Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> primary setback is in the form of poor capital allocation</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tvs-motors-analysis-of-various-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30047" rel="noopener">TVS Motors: Analysis Of Various Investments</a> , we had briefed on the investment policy of the company and how the non-core investments/subsidiaries are dragging the profits.</li>
<li>This insight is an extension of the previous one; we update on the various investments the company has undergone and how it impacts the capital allocation.</li>
</ul>



TVS Motor (TVSL IN) primary setback is in the form of poor capital allocation
In TVS Motors: Analysis Of Various Investments , we had briefed on the investment policy of the company and how the non-core investments/subsidiaries are dragging the profits.
This insight is an extension of the previous one; we update on the various investments the company has undergone and how it impacts the capital allocation.


Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> is well-positioned to offset margin pressures due to its aspirational brand, the success of its new models and exports. </li>
<li>Easing supply issues along with newer export markets provide a compelling runway for revenue growth. </li>
<li>While our estimates are in line with consensus,  we believe the YTD outperformance is likely to continue and any opportunities presented amidst market volatility must be exploited. </li>
</ul>



Eicher Motors (EIM IN) is well-positioned to offset margin pressures due to its aspirational brand, the success of its new models and exports. 
Easing supply issues along with newer export markets provide a compelling runway for revenue growth. 
While our estimates are in line with consensus,  we believe the YTD outperformance is likely to continue and any opportunities presented amidst market volatility must be exploited. 


Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | The "Twins" (New Models & Exports) Are Firing

<ul>
<li>We speak to channels across West, North and South to understand the 2W demand environment </li>
<li>Mid segment is still not seeing recovery, premium and lower end segment is stabilising / doing relatively better. </li>
<li>Restoration of supplies and aggressive marketing strategies can aid volume recovery for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


We speak to channels across West, North and South to understand the 2W demand environment 
Mid segment is still not seeing recovery, premium and lower end segment is stabilising / doing relatively better. 
Restoration of supplies and aggressive marketing strategies can aid volume recovery for TVS Motor (TVSL IN) and Eicher Motors (EIM IN) 


India Channel Insight #34 | Eicher (Royal Enfield), TVS Motors, Hero MotoCorp

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> being included in the index, while either <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.</li>
</ul>


We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.
There is a high probability of Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) being included in the index, while either Shree Cement (SRCM IN) or Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) will be deleted.
The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

<ul>
<li>We visit dealers of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> to understand the current demand environment for Electric Vehicles(EV).</li>
<li>High fuel prices and a very low base lead to high growth for EV OEMs</li>
<li>Customers are waiting for launches from legacy players and a reduction in battery cost to decide the best alternative, but this is costing the overall 2W industry lower volumes. </li>
</ul>


We visit dealers of Honda Motor (7267 JP) , Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and TVS Motor (TVSL IN) to understand the current demand environment for Electric Vehicles(EV).
High fuel prices and a very low base lead to high growth for EV OEMs
Customers are waiting for launches from legacy players and a reduction in battery cost to decide the best alternative, but this is costing the overall 2W industry lower volumes. 


India Channel Insight #28 | What Is the Two-Wheeler EV Scene in India?

India

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

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TVS Motor (TVSL IN)

TVS Motors- Forensic Analysis

This insight is an extension of the previous one; we update on the various investments the company has undergone and how it impacts the capital...

Nitin Mangal

Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | The "Twins" (New Models & Exports) Are Firing

We expect Eicher Motors (EIM IN) outperformance to continue. Improvement in supplies, New models, Export margins, and the ability to manage cost...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Channel Insight #34 | Eicher (Royal Enfield), TVS Motors, Hero MotoCorp

For this weekly publication, we speak to Auto channels across the West, North and South to understand the 2W demand environment and competitive...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

Adani Enterprises is a high probability add to the NIFTY50 in Sep. Shree Cement is the current delete, though Hero Motocorp is close. There will be...

Brian Freitas

India Channel Insight #28 | What Is the Two-Wheeler EV Scene in India?

We visit dealers of Honda Motor (7267 JP) , Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and TVS Motor (TVSL IN) to understand the current demand environment for...

Pranav Bhavsar

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