Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following the introduction of 45 stocks in the F&amp;O segment from 29 November, there will be big capping changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 21.9% leading to a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m). There are 25 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>There could be changes to the index methodology announced in the next few months and that could result in the deletion of a couple of constituents in March.</li>
</ul>


Following the introduction of 45 stocks in the F&amp;O segment from 29 November, there will be big capping changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in December.
We estimate one-way turnover of 21.9% leading to a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m). There are 25 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
There could be changes to the index methodology announced in the next few months and that could result in the deletion of a couple of constituents in March.


Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric(OLAELEC IN)</a> ’s management, during Investor call, seemed confident in driving volume growth through expanded distribution, new model launches, and focused on technology upgrades and vertical integration for cost advantages.</li>
<li>The company, however, remains intent on continuing its disruptor play strategy of aggressive discounts and competitive pricing to drive volume growth—uncommon in India’s auto sector.</li>
<li>Investors seeking profitability and capital returns will need patience (and faith in Ola's strategy), while competitors like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd(BJAUT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor(TVSL IN)</a>  may feel the pressure.</li>
</ul>



Ola Electric(OLAELEC IN) ’s management, during Investor call, seemed confident in driving volume growth through expanded distribution, new model launches, and focused on technology upgrades and vertical integration for cost advantages.
The company, however, remains intent on continuing its disruptor play strategy of aggressive discounts and competitive pricing to drive volume growth—uncommon in India’s auto sector.
Investors seeking profitability and capital returns will need patience (and faith in Ola's strategy), while competitors like Bajaj Auto Ltd(BJAUT IN) and TVS Motor(TVSL IN)  may feel the pressure.


OLA Electric: Wimpy Quarter. But, Bigger Question—How Long Will the Disruptor Play Last?

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>We continue our earnings coverage highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls.</li>
<li>Names in this auto-focused edition include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> .</li>
<li>Bearish names include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/escorts-kubota-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6773:1" rel="noopener">Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> as a potential name to be bullish on.</li>
</ul>


We continue our earnings coverage highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls.
Names in this auto-focused edition include Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN), Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN), Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN), Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) .
Bearish names include Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) , Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN) and Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) as a potential name to be bullish on.


Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Autos

<ul>
<li>After two challenging months, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> ’s October sales rebounded strongly, driven by strong festive demand and deep discounts.</li>
<li>The company appears to have effectively managed its after-sales complaints crisis, easing  investor concerns ahead its 90-day lock-up expiry on November 5th.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a>'s upside and path to profitability relies on increasing electric bike adoption, improving margins through in-house cell manufacturing, and leveraging PLI incentives.</li>
</ul>


After two challenging months, Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) ’s October sales rebounded strongly, driven by strong festive demand and deep discounts.
The company appears to have effectively managed its after-sales complaints crisis, easing  investor concerns ahead its 90-day lock-up expiry on November 5th.

Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)'s upside and path to profitability relies on increasing electric bike adoption, improving margins through in-house cell manufacturing, and leveraging PLI incentives.


Ola Electric's Volume Recovery: Eases Investor Concerns Ahead of Lock up Expiry on Nov 5th

<ul>
<li>There could be 16 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn (US$736m).</li>
<li>Since June, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 16 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn (US$736m).
Since June, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum

India

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TVS Motor (TVSL IN)

Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?

The introduction of new F&O contracts will result in an estimated 21.9% turnover and a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m) for the Nifty Next50...

Brian Freitas

OLA Electric: Wimpy Quarter. But, Bigger Question—How Long Will the Disruptor Play Last?

Ola seems intent on continuing its disruptor play strategy—aggressive pricing to drive volume growth, uncommon in India’s auto sector. Investors...

Devi Subhakesan

Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Autos

We highlight key earnings and call takeaways from companies like Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki India, Ola Electric, and Tata Motors.

Pranav Bhavsar

Ola Electric's Volume Recovery: Eases Investor Concerns Ahead of Lock up Expiry on Nov 5th

Expect the stock to stay range bound with near term valuations in line with well-established two wheeler peers TVS Motors and Bajaj Auto.

Devi Subhakesan

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum

There could be 16 constituent changes in December. one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)