Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

EM currencies on aggregate have been tracking the US dollar closely but there has been a fair amount of differentiation within EM. With many central banks in EM embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the different currency performances. We also identify the currencies that are cheap and expensive based on this analysis.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

EM currencies on aggregate have been tracking the US dollar closely but there has been a fair amount of differentiation within EM. With many central banks in EM embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the different currency performances. We also identify the currencies that are cheap and expensive based on this analysis.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Driving FX Returns?

The Brazilian real (BRL) has by far been the best-performing EM currency since the end of March. In this note, we address the following questions:<ol>
<li>What is behind the rally?</li>
<li>If it continues, how much further can BRL run?</li>
<li>Is it worthwhile to go long the currency at these levels?</li>
</ol>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

The Brazilian real (BRL) has by far been the best-performing EM currency since the end of March. In this note, we address the following questions:
What is behind the rally?
If it continues, how much further can BRL run?
Is it worthwhile to go long the currency at these levels?
Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: How Much Further Can the Brazilian Real Run?

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar. Two currencies that have underperformed and stand out as buying opportunities are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Romanian leu (RON).Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar. Two currencies that have underperformed and stand out as buying opportunities are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Romanian leu (RON).Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Did the Dollar Spike Create Opportunities in EM FX?

The US dollar has strengthened on the back of the hawkish Fed, hurting Asian currencies across the board but the Singapore dollar (SGD) more so than the Indonesian rupiah (IDR), allowing us to take profit on our Long IDR vs Short SGD trade recommendation.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

The US dollar has strengthened on the back of the hawkish Fed, hurting Asian currencies across the board but the Singapore dollar (SGD) more so than the Indonesian rupiah (IDR), allowing us to take profit on our Long IDR vs Short SGD trade recommendation.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Take Profit on Long Indonesian Rupiah Vs Short Singapore Dollar Recommendation

While our base case is not one of significant dollar strengthening, we need to be cognizant of the risk. As such, we evaluate which currencies are the most vulnerable if we get a repeat of the Q1 dollar appreciation and EM FX sell-off on the back of higher US Treasury yields.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

While our base case is not one of significant dollar strengthening, we need to be cognizant of the risk. As such, we evaluate which currencies are the most vulnerable if we get a repeat of the Q1 dollar appreciation and EM FX sell-off on the back of higher US Treasury yields.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Which Currencies Are Most Vulnerable to Dollar Strengthening?

Taiwan

The New Taiwan dollar is the official currency of Taiwan

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FX Dashboard: Is Monetary Policy Driving FX Returns?

With many EM central banks embarking on monetary tightening cycles, we investigate whether that has been a factor explaining the currency...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: How Much Further Can the Brazilian Real Run?

With the Brazilian real being the best-performing currency since March-end, we discuss the reasons behind the rally, how much further it can go,...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Did the Dollar Spike Create Opportunities in EM FX?

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar.

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Take Profit on Long Indonesian Rupiah Vs Short Singapore Dollar Recommendation

The US dollar has strengthened on the back of the hawkish Fed, hurting SGD more than IDR, allowing us to take profit on our Long IDR vs Short SGD...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Which Currencies Are Most Vulnerable to Dollar Strengthening?

We evaluate which currencies are the most vulnerable under the risk scenario of a repeat of the Q1 dollar appreciation and EM FX sell-off on the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)