IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-10/asia-pulp-paper-is-said-to-bid-for-stake-in-tissue-maker-vinda#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> Asia Pulp &amp; Paper is the latest party to have expressed interest in acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essity-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28203:1" rel="noopener">Essity (ESSITYB SS)</a>’s controlling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a> stake at more than HK$20 per share.</li>
<li>Vinda has three substantial shareholders. We think the most likely structure is a bidder acquiring Essity’s stake, which would trigger a mandatory general offer.</li>
<li>Vinda's recent update points to improving growth and margins. Peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$21-26 per share, a 7-32% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reported Asia Pulp &amp; Paper is the latest party to have expressed interest in acquiring Essity (ESSITYB SS)’s controlling Vinda International (3331 HK) stake at more than HK$20 per share.
Vinda has three substantial shareholders. We think the most likely structure is a bidder acquiring Essity’s stake, which would trigger a mandatory general offer.
Vinda's recent update points to improving growth and margins. Peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$21-26 per share, a 7-32% premium to the last close.


Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The turnaround basket outperformed the Topix benchmark by 40% in the past 12 months, with only three stocks underperforming.</li>
<li>Fundamental research added value to the simple one-factor model, as seen with top performers like Shift and Rohm.</li>
<li>The unusual market conditions last year favored turnarounds, but future performance is expected to return to normal levels.</li>
</ul>


The turnaround basket outperformed the Topix benchmark by 40% in the past 12 months, with only three stocks underperforming.
Fundamental research added value to the simple one-factor model, as seen with top performers like Shift and Rohm.
The unusual market conditions last year favored turnarounds, but future performance is expected to return to normal levels.


Japanese Turnarounds Chock up a Massive Year, but What's Next?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Nervous markets overnight with a number of earnings misses adding downside pressure.</li>
<li>Tokyo Metro IPO kicks off today which should see strong demand especially from risk-adverse retail investors.</li>
<li>Tokyo Metro grey market last Y1400 vs Y1200 listing price, although bookrunners are calling higher levels to start.</li>
</ul>


Nervous markets overnight with a number of earnings misses adding downside pressure.
Tokyo Metro IPO kicks off today which should see strong demand especially from risk-adverse retail investors.
Tokyo Metro grey market last Y1400 vs Y1200 listing price, although bookrunners are calling higher levels to start.


Japan Morning Connection: Tokyo Metro IPO Should See Strong Demand

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong dollar is strengthening as demand picks up and the carry trade unwinds quickly.  Put/Call Skew declines for HSTech Index as traders sentiment reverses.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan International Group (1044 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> had breakouts from declining wedge patterns and have now formed new uptrends.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> had a breakout reversal from a U-shaped pattern indicating more upside.  The stock's 200 DMA may provide little resistance to further re-rating.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong dollar is strengthening as demand picks up and the carry trade unwinds quickly.  Put/Call Skew declines for HSTech Index as traders sentiment reverses.

Hengan International Group (1044 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) had breakouts from declining wedge patterns and have now formed new uptrends.

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) had a breakout reversal from a U-shaped pattern indicating more upside.  The stock's 200 DMA may provide little resistance to further re-rating.


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 30)

<ul>
<li>News Intel may be looking to restructure and even sell its fab business, a slight negative for Japanese SPE suppliers.</li>
<li>Japan upping defence budget to a record high a positive for related names, including KHI which has been excessively weak on the news it fabricated data for marine engine business.</li>
<li>Nikkei Inc. is expected to announce results for 30th September rebalance today or tomorrow which may see big buying for the likes of Ryohin Keikaku, NRI and possibly one other.</li>
</ul>


News Intel may be looking to restructure and even sell its fab business, a slight negative for Japanese SPE suppliers.
Japan upping defence budget to a record high a positive for related names, including KHI which has been excessively weak on the news it fabricated data for marine engine business.
Nikkei Inc. is expected to announce results for 30th September rebalance today or tomorrow which may see big buying for the likes of Ryohin Keikaku, NRI and possibly one other.


Japan Morning Connection: Record Defense Budget and Nikkei Rebalance Set to Boost Related Stocks

Japan

UNICHARM CORPORATION is a manufacturer of sanitary napkins and baby products. Products include infant & adult diapers, household cleaning wipes, and feminine hygienic products.  The Company also produces pet food and pet toiletries as well as operates educational and finance businesses.

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Unicharm Corp (8113 JP)

Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

Vinda’s improving performance has supported the increasing list of potential bidders. The most likely bid structure is the acquisition of Essity’s...

Arun George

Japanese Turnarounds Chock up a Massive Year, but What's Next?

Turnaround basket outperformed Topix benchmark by 40% in past year, and fundamental research pushed this higher with picks like Shift and Rohm....

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Tokyo Metro IPO Should See Strong Demand

Nervous markets overnight due to a number of earnings misses. Tokyo Metro IPO expected to see strong demand, especially from risk-adverse retail...

Andrew Jackson

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 30)

Hong Kong dollar strengthens to the strong end of the band. Hengan and Galaxy share prices have both broken out of Falling Wedge patterns. Wuxi...

David Mudd

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Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

Vinda’s improving performance has supported the increasing list of potential bidders. The most likely bid structure is the acquisition of Essity’s...

Arun George

Japanese Turnarounds Chock up a Massive Year, but What's Next?

​Turnaround basket outperformed Topix benchmark by 40% in past year, and fundamental research pushed this higher with picks like Shift and Rohm....

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Tokyo Metro IPO Should See Strong Demand

​Nervous markets overnight due to a number of earnings misses. Tokyo Metro IPO expected to see strong demand, especially from risk-adverse retail...

Andrew Jackson

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 30)

Hong Kong dollar strengthens to the strong end of the band. Hengan and Galaxy share prices have both broken out of Falling Wedge patterns. Wuxi...

David Mudd

Japan Morning Connection: Record Defense Budget and Nikkei Rebalance Set to Boost Related Stocks

​News Intel may restructure/sell fab business, negative for Japanese SPE suppliers. Japan defense budget increase positive for related names....

Andrew Jackson

Turnaround basket outperformed Topix benchmark by 40% in past year, and fundamental research pushed this higher with picks like Shift and Rohm....

Nervous markets overnight due to a number of earnings misses. Tokyo Metro IPO expected to see strong demand, especially from risk-adverse retail...

News Intel may restructure/sell fab business, negative for Japanese SPE suppliers. Japan defense budget increase positive for related names....