Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and indeed made strong gains over the last five years. As measured by MSCI world, equities have risen 48% in USD terms, compounding at 8%. MXAPJ has done less well , up only 10% in 5 years for a Cagr of 2%. Index earnings have actually fallen  over that period in Asia in dollar terms by about 15% but the lack of a meaningful risk free rate of return has kept…

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and indeed made strong gains over the last five years. As measured by MSCI world, equities have risen 48% in USD terms, compounding at 8%. MXAPJ has done less well , up only 10% in 5 years for a Cagr of 2%. Index earnings have actually fallen  over that period in Asia in dollar terms by about 15% but the lack of a meaningful risk free rate of return has kept…

Money Matters: Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>UniCredit escalates from bidder to activist, presenting a “Commerzbank Unlocked” plan and challenging strategy, reinforcing a creeping takeover approach that builds influence without immediate control and reshapes the investment case.</li>
<li>The transaction increasingly resembles a multi-stage control-option story, not merger arbitrage, with UniCredit comfortable above 30%, limited near-term take-up, and a potential full integration timeline extending toward 2029.</li>
<li>Market pricing already reflects higher implied control value, with Commerzbank trading above exchange terms, while synergies from combining with HVB and UniCredit’s platform support upside despite rising political friction.</li>
</ul>


UniCredit escalates from bidder to activist, presenting a “Commerzbank Unlocked” plan and challenging strategy, reinforcing a creeping takeover approach that builds influence without immediate control and reshapes the investment case.
The transaction increasingly resembles a multi-stage control-option story, not merger arbitrage, with UniCredit comfortable above 30%, limited near-term take-up, and a potential full integration timeline extending toward 2029.
Market pricing already reflects higher implied control value, with Commerzbank trading above exchange terms, while synergies from combining with HVB and UniCredit’s platform support upside despite rising political friction.


UniCredit / Commerzbank – From Bid to Activism: Control Without Control

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/money-matters-turkey-on-the-brink" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7953">Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?</a>). Mexico has found itself at the sharp end of rhetoric from the US president-elect but the economy was already in trouble.  Is another Tequila crisis brewing (or distilling)?Mexico's current account deficit has been widening since 2010 and stands at around 3.5% of GDP. External debt has roughly doubled since 2009 and stands at about…

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?). Mexico has found itself at the sharp end of rhetoric from the US president-elect but the economy was already in trouble.  Is another Tequila crisis brewing (or distilling)?Mexico's current account deficit has been widening since 2010 and stands at around 3.5% of GDP. External debt has roughly doubled since 2009 and stands at about…

Money Matters: Could Tequila Mixed with Moutai Be Explosive.

Italy

UniCredit is a pan-European commercial bank offering diverse financial services, including retail and private banking, corporate and investment banking, and wealth management. It provides solutions such as current accounts, loans, credit cards, advisory, and asset management. The company is headquartered in Milan, Italy, and traces its corporate identity back to its founding in 1870 as Banca di Genova, with the current entity formed in 1998 through a merger.

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UniCredit (UCG IM)

Money Matters: US Inflation & The Fed

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: I Mera Tis Marmotas

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and...

Stewart Paterson

UniCredit / Commerzbank – From Bid to Activism: Control Without Control

UniCredit shifts from bidder to activist, pushing a restructuring plan while accepting low take-up. Commerzbank now trades as a control-option...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Money Matters: Could Tequila Mixed with Moutai Be Explosive.

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: Money Matters: Turkey...

Stewart Paterson

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