External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Kantar reported that household spending in Indonesia increased by +7.0% YoY in 3Q24, reaching IDR6 mn (vs IDR5.6 mn in 3Q23), driven by fresh food and FMCG.</li><li>Additionally, value per trip and spending volume also increased by +6.0% YoY and +2.0% YoY, respectively.</li><li>This growth indicates an uptick in consumption, especially among lower and upper-income groups in 3Q24, in line with manageable inflation due to the moderation of key staple prices, such as rice, flour and eggs. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kantar reported that household spending in Indonesia increased by +7.0% YoY in 3Q24, reaching IDR6 mn (vs IDR5.6 mn in 3Q23), driven by fresh food and FMCG.Additionally, value per trip and spending volume also increased by +6.0% YoY and +2.0% YoY, respectively.This growth indicates an uptick in consumption, especially among lower and upper-income groups in 3Q24, in line with manageable inflation due to the moderation of key staple prices, such as rice, flour and eggs. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Sectoral Update December 17, 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>We expect higher minimum wages in FY25 and a positive impact from purchasing power and govt’s meal program to create more jobs.</li><li>We estimate stronger volume growth in FY25, supported by ASP adjustments, to drive FY25F core profit growth of 9.3% yoy.</li><li>We prefer market leaders with opportunities to gain market share and implement ASP adjustment. Maintain Overweight with top pick on ICBP.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect higher minimum wages in FY25 and a positive impact from purchasing power and govt’s meal program to create more jobs.We estimate stronger volume growth in FY25, supported by ASP adjustments, to drive FY25F core profit growth of 9.3% yoy.We prefer market leaders with opportunities to gain market share and implement ASP adjustment. Maintain Overweight with top pick on ICBP.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: FY25 Outlook: Growth Drivers from Supported Purchasing Power and Strategic Pricing

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Our team’s preview expects the majority of 3Q24 earnings to be in line with expectations, which should cement our FY24F EPS growth expectation of 7.6%, though consensus 12-month fwd. growth has recently been downgraded to 5.8%.</li><li>UNVR big miss. A combination of weak volume and price and additional opex in 3Q24 have driven -47% qoq/ -62% yoy net profit drop, with management signaling turnaround only by 3Q25.</li><li>Our analyst, Natalia, had a Sell rating prior to the results and trimmed our TP further to Rp1,900 post the disappointing 3Q24 results.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our team’s preview expects the majority of 3Q24 earnings to be in line with expectations, which should cement our FY24F EPS growth expectation of 7.6%, though consensus 12-month fwd. growth has recently been downgraded to 5.8%.UNVR big miss. A combination of weak volume and price and additional opex in 3Q24 have driven -47% qoq/ -62% yoy net profit drop, with management signaling turnaround only by 3Q25.Our analyst, Natalia, had a Sell rating prior to the results and trimmed our TP further to Rp1,900 post the disappointing 3Q24 results.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Restocking May Continue to Support NPI Price

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>UNVR posted disappointing 3Q24 earnings due to bumpy sales recovery and several key issues that need to be addressed in the coming quarters. </li><li>We see channel conflicts and stock reductions hindering solid revenue growth in the near term, with recovery expected only by 3Q25.</li><li>We have revised down our FY24-25F net profit by 20% and lowered our TP to Rp1,900 with an implied PE of 19.7x. Maintain Sell rating.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

UNVR posted disappointing 3Q24 earnings due to bumpy sales recovery and several key issues that need to be addressed in the coming quarters. We see channel conflicts and stock reductions hindering solid revenue growth in the near term, with recovery expected only by 3Q25.We have revised down our FY24-25F net profit by 20% and lowered our TP to Rp1,900 with an implied PE of 19.7x. Maintain Sell rating.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Unilever Indonesia - FY24-25 Estimates Cut Post Weak 3Q24 Earnings, Recovery Anticipated in 2025

<ul><li>We estimate 3Q24/9M24 sector revenue growth of +2.6%/+4% yoy and 9M24 operating profit of +7% yoy, in line with our and cons. est.</li><li>We expect solid revenue and stable margins to support 9M24 core profit growth of 9% yoy, in line with meeting our FY24F and Cons. </li><li>Festive events and export markets should drive sales in 4Q24. We maintain our OW rating, with ICBP and MYOR as our top picks.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate 3Q24/9M24 sector revenue growth of +2.6%/+4% yoy and 9M24 operating profit of +7% yoy, in line with our and cons. est.We expect solid revenue and stable margins to support 9M24 core profit growth of 9% yoy, in line with meeting our FY24F and Cons. Festive events and export markets should drive sales in 4Q24. We maintain our OW rating, with ICBP and MYOR as our top picks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: Sustained Solid Core Profit Growth on Stable Margins, in Line with Our and Consensus

Indonesia

PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk manufactures soaps, detergents, margarine, oil and dairy based foods, tea based beverages, ice cream, and cosmetics.

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Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)

Consumer Sectoral Update December 17, 2024

Kantar reported that household spending in Indonesia increased by +7.0% YoY in 3Q24, reaching IDR6 mn (vs IDR5.6 mn in 3Q23), driven by fresh food...

MNC Sekuritas

Consumer: FY25 Outlook: Growth Drivers from Supported Purchasing Power and Strategic Pricing

We expect higher minimum wages in FY25 and a positive impact from purchasing power and govt’s meal program to create more jobs.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Restocking May Continue to Support NPI Price

Our team’s preview expects the majority of 3Q24 earnings to be in line with expectations, which should cement our FY24F EPS growth expectation of 7.6%

BRI Danareksa Research

Unilever Indonesia - FY24-25 Estimates Cut Post Weak 3Q24 Earnings, Recovery Anticipated in 2025

UNVR posted disappointing 3Q24 earnings due to bumpy sales recovery and several key issues that need to be addressed in the coming quarters.

BRI Danareksa Research

Consumer: Sustained Solid Core Profit Growth on Stable Margins, in Line with Our and Consensus

We estimate 3Q24/9M24 sector revenue growth of +2.6%/+4% yoy and 9M24 operating profit of +7% yoy, in line with our and cons. est.

BRI Danareksa Research

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