Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The announced restructuring of Cheung Kong Limited and Hutchison Whampoa Limited has been well received on the HKEx. Hutchison shares have rallied and now trade at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 12x trailing EBITDA. Mr. Li hopes to list Watson’s, but will there be more value in a listing or a sale?&nbsp;</p>

The announced restructuring of Cheung Kong Limited and Hutchison Whampoa Limited has been well received on the HKEx. Hutchison shares have rallied and now trade at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 12x trailing EBITDA. Mr. Li hopes to list Watson’s, but will there be more value in a listing or a sale?&nbsp;

Hutchison Whampoa Restructuring: Next Move for Watson's?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology / Equity Capital Markets

Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology (BBMT HK)

<ul>
<li>The continuous decline of APIs/intermediates business and the high R&amp;D expenditure will lead to pressure on performance in 2025 (e.g. negative growth in revenue and net profit).</li>
<li>The 2025 low base and the recovery of APIs/intermediates business is expected to bring a rebound in 2026. BGM0504 may begin to make contributions in 2027 if it gets approval.</li>
<li>The Phase III results of BGM0504 are still uncertain (with R&amp;D failure risks). If the launch of BGM0504 is delayed, the net profit may be revised downward in the future.</li>
</ul>


The continuous decline of APIs/intermediates business and the high R&amp;D expenditure will lead to pressure on performance in 2025 (e.g. negative growth in revenue and net profit).
The 2025 low base and the recovery of APIs/intermediates business is expected to bring a rebound in 2026. BGM0504 may begin to make contributions in 2027 if it gets approval.
The Phase III results of BGM0504 are still uncertain (with R&amp;D failure risks). If the launch of BGM0504 is delayed, the net profit may be revised downward in the future.


Pre-IPO Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology (A/H Listing) - 2025 Will Face a Performance Slump

<ul>
<li>The greatest differentiating advantage of ECC5004 lies in oral administration, but clinical progress has fallen short of expectations or the final efficacy data may not significantly surpass the existing therapies.</li>
<li>The competition in GLP-1 market has become extremely fierce. Product progress of Eccogene is relatively lagging behind, and its differentiated advantages need more solid clinical data to support them.</li>
<li>Eccogene’s valuation largely depends on the differentiated narrative of its oral small molecule pipeline. Valuation of Eccogene could be lower than peers such as Innovent/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-innogen-pharmaceutical-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44142:1" rel="noopener">Innogen, </a>who already have marketed GLP-1s.</li>
</ul>


The greatest differentiating advantage of ECC5004 lies in oral administration, but clinical progress has fallen short of expectations or the final efficacy data may not significantly surpass the existing therapies.
The competition in GLP-1 market has become extremely fierce. Product progress of Eccogene is relatively lagging behind, and its differentiated advantages need more solid clinical data to support them.
Eccogene’s valuation largely depends on the differentiated narrative of its oral small molecule pipeline. Valuation of Eccogene could be lower than peers such as Innovent/Innogen, who already have marketed GLP-1s.


Pre-IPO Eccogene - About the Pipeline and the Concerns Behind

<ul>
<li>Mandi’s business is quite focused. In the short-term, Minoxidil will continue to be the main performance driver for Mandi. The performance contribution of Winlevi and Mandi’s semaglutide would be uncertain. </li>
<li>The concern here is the declining growth rate due to VBP and increasing competition. Based on our forecast, growth of the next three years would be maintained at 15-20% YoY.</li>
<li>An aggressive valuation range for Mandi is RMB34-43 billion. However, due to VBP/increasing competition, a relatively conservative P/S range is 10-20x. If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB17.2-34.3 billion.</li>
</ul>


Mandi’s business is quite focused. In the short-term, Minoxidil will continue to be the main performance driver for Mandi. The performance contribution of Winlevi and Mandi’s semaglutide would be uncertain. 
The concern here is the declining growth rate due to VBP and increasing competition. Based on our forecast, growth of the next three years would be maintained at 15-20% YoY.
An aggressive valuation range for Mandi is RMB34-43 billion. However, due to VBP/increasing competition, a relatively conservative P/S range is 10-20x. If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB17.2-34.3 billion.


Pre-IPO Mandi Inc. - The Business Model, the Concerns and the Valuation

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite its 96% price appreciation since our initiation, United Laboratories is still trading on a 8.7 FPE, and a 5.5 EV/EVITDA.</li>
<li>A US FDA GLP-1 approval and a potential $ 1.8bn deal with Novo Nordisk demonstrates its successful diabetes and obesity strategy.</li>
<li>With over 80 drugs in the pipeline to be delivered over the next five years, we believe that TUL is about to experience a very material increase in topline growth.</li>
</ul>


Despite its 96% price appreciation since our initiation, United Laboratories is still trading on a 8.7 FPE, and a 5.5 EV/EVITDA.
A US FDA GLP-1 approval and a potential $ 1.8bn deal with Novo Nordisk demonstrates its successful diabetes and obesity strategy.
With over 80 drugs in the pipeline to be delivered over the next five years, we believe that TUL is about to experience a very material increase in topline growth.


The United Laboratories International Holdings (TUL) Ltd (3933 HK) - Retain Buy

Hong Kong

United Laboratories is a leading integrated pharmaceutical company engaged in the research, development, production, and sales of pharmaceutical products. Its diverse portfolio includes intermediate products, bulk medicines, finished products such as antibiotics and insulin, biopharmaceuticals, and animal healthcare products. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Hong Kong, with extensive manufacturing operations across China.

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United Laboratories (3933 HK)

Hutchison Whampoa Restructuring: Next Move for Watson's?

The announced restructuring of Cheung Kong Limited and Hutchison Whampoa Limited has been well received on the HKEx. Hutchison shares have rallied...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Pre-IPO Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology (A/H Listing) - 2025 Will Face a Performance Slump

Declining APIs business, VBP and high R&D costs may impact performance in 2025, but rebound expected in 2026 with potential contributions from...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Eccogene - About the Pipeline and the Concerns Behind

ECC5004's oral administration advantage may not be enough to surpass existing therapies, as competition in the GLP-1 market intensifies.Eccogene's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Mandi Inc. - The Business Model, the Concerns and the Valuation

Mandi's short-term success hinges on Minoxidil, but uncertainty looms with Winlevi and semaglutide. Growth may slow due to VBP and competition. A...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The United Laboratories International Holdings (TUL) Ltd (3933 HK) - Retain Buy

United Laboratories has seen significant price appreciation and success in diabetes and obesity strategy, with a promising pipeline for future...

daaimon

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hutchison Whampoa Restructuring: Next Move for Watson's?

The announced restructuring of Cheung Kong Limited and Hutchison Whampoa Limited has been well received on the HKEx. Hutchison shares have rallied...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Pre-IPO Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology (A/H Listing) - 2025 Will Face a Performance Slump

​Declining APIs business, VBP and high R&D costs may impact performance in 2025, but rebound expected in 2026 with potential contributions from...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Eccogene - About the Pipeline and the Concerns Behind

​ECC5004's oral administration advantage may not be enough to surpass existing therapies, as competition in the GLP-1 market intensifies.Eccogene's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Mandi Inc. - The Business Model, the Concerns and the Valuation

​Mandi's short-term success hinges on Minoxidil, but uncertainty looms with Winlevi and semaglutide. Growth may slow due to VBP and competition. A...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The United Laboratories International Holdings (TUL) Ltd (3933 HK) - Retain Buy

​United Laboratories has seen significant price appreciation and success in diabetes and obesity strategy, with a promising pipeline for future...

daaimon

Declining APIs business, VBP and high R&D costs may impact performance in 2025, but rebound expected in 2026 with potential contributions from...

ECC5004's oral administration advantage may not be enough to surpass existing therapies, as competition in the GLP-1 market intensifies.Eccogene's...

Mandi's short-term success hinges on Minoxidil, but uncertainty looms with Winlevi and semaglutide. Growth may slow due to VBP and competition. A...

United Laboratories has seen significant price appreciation and success in diabetes and obesity strategy, with a promising pipeline for future...