Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>UMC &amp; Mediatek Results Today in Taiwan, Samsung Also Reporting; Taiwan AI Names Flying; Himax &amp; Novatek Top Losers Ahead of Results.</li>
<li>Semiconductor Surge: Southeast Asia Taking Center Stage Amid Taiwan's Geopolitical Shift</li>
<li>First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid</li>
</ul>


UMC &amp; Mediatek Results Today in Taiwan, Samsung Also Reporting; Taiwan AI Names Flying; Himax &amp; Novatek Top Losers Ahead of Results.
Semiconductor Surge: Southeast Asia Taking Center Stage Amid Taiwan's Geopolitical Shift
First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Semiconductors Surging in Southeast Asia; UMC & Mediatek Results Today

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Plays Have Soared Since TSMC's Strong Outlook, and SK Hynix Reported a Return to Op Profit</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron</li>
<li>Key Upcoming Events -- Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, UMC Results Ahead</li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Plays Have Soared Since TSMC's Strong Outlook, and SK Hynix Reported a Return to Op Profit
Memory Monitor: Microsoft Copilot Will Supercharge Demand for DRAM; SK Hynix, Nanya Tech, Micron
Key Upcoming Events -- Intel, Microsoft, Mediatek, UMC Results Ahead


Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.</li>
<li>Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. </li>
<li>TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. </li>
</ul>


TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.
Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. 
TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. 


What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

<ul>
<li>Nvidia Results Today U.S. Time -- Taiwan Market Surged Recently on Improving AI/Semiconductor Expectations and Potential for Easing U.S.-China Tensions.</li>
<li>Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers. Our Fellow Insight Provider Analyzes Why Taiwan Might Still Be Underowned.</li>
<li>Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia Results Today U.S. Time -- Taiwan Market Surged Recently on Improving AI/Semiconductor Expectations and Potential for Easing U.S.-China Tensions.
Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers. Our Fellow Insight Provider Analyzes Why Taiwan Might Still Be Underowned.
Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shortage/Oversupply, price hike/cut, automotive/industrial demand and inventory corrections are still cyclical. Gross margin should double from 22-24% now once utilization returning to 100% and no more free wafer by 2025.</li>
<li>LCD driver foundry is facing a structural competition as China panel customers are building a local supply chain.</li>
<li>Attractive below NT$70 as: 1. inventory correction should be done by 2Q24; 2. global 8" foundry sales y/y improvement began 3Q23; 3. closing to cyclical low P/BV of 2.5x.</li>
</ul>


Shortage/Oversupply, price hike/cut, automotive/industrial demand and inventory corrections are still cyclical. Gross margin should double from 22-24% now once utilization returning to 100% and no more free wafer by 2025.
LCD driver foundry is facing a structural competition as China panel customers are building a local supply chain.
Attractive below NT$70 as: 1. inventory correction should be done by 2Q24; 2. global 8" foundry sales y/y improvement began 3Q23; 3. closing to cyclical low P/BV of 2.5x.


Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student, Cyclical or Structural?

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Semiconductors Surging in Southeast Asia; UMC & Mediatek Results Today

Key Taiwan results ahead include Mediatek, UMC, Realtek, Novatek, and Himax. Taiwan AI names have been flying lately while Novatek and Himax have...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors; TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will report today U.S. time with its analyst call at 14:00 PDT, we are maintaining our Short basket of Taiwan AI names vs....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student, Cyclical or Structural?

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student? Some Cyclical or some Structural reasons for the weaknesses coupled with three reasons suggested...

Andrew Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Semiconductors Surging in Southeast Asia; UMC & Mediatek Results Today

Key Taiwan results ahead include Mediatek, UMC, Realtek, Novatek, and Himax. Taiwan AI names have been flying lately while Novatek and Himax have...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: SK Hynix Boosts Optimism for Memory; Intel, Mediatek, Microsoft, UMC Key Events

​A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors; TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Today; Taiwan Market Surged But Why It Might Be Still Underowned

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will report today U.S. time with its analyst call at 14:00 PDT, we are maintaining our Short basket of Taiwan AI names vs....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student, Cyclical or Structural?

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student? Some Cyclical or some Structural reasons for the weaknesses coupled with three reasons suggested...

Andrew Lu

A strong outlook from TSMC and SK Hynix's return to op profit have boosted Taiwan tech; Why Microsoft's Copilot will accelerate demand for DRAM;...