Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over nearly 4 years and implemented in its current state for nearly 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over nearly 4 years and implemented in its current state for nearly 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MediaTek's 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$128.65bn/49.6% and NT$136.35bn(+/-5.15bn)/49.5%(+/-1.5%) resp. Our previous estimate of 4Q21 is in short of NT$1.05bn/2.1% resp., and 1Q22 revenue/GM is at the low limit of guidance resp.</li>
<li>MediaTek will keep leading in the smartphone area, including 4G/5G for ~700mn in 2022. The 5G penetration rate will be from 35-40% in 2021 to be 50% in 2022.</li>
<li>Dividend payout ratio will be 80~85%, and it will be NT$72~76 for 2021. It will be a NT$16 of the special dividend in the coming 4 years.</li>
</ul>


MediaTek's 4Q21/1Q22 revenue/GM is NT$128.65bn/49.6% and NT$136.35bn(+/-5.15bn)/49.5%(+/-1.5%) resp. Our previous estimate of 4Q21 is in short of NT$1.05bn/2.1% resp., and 1Q22 revenue/GM is at the low limit of guidance resp.
MediaTek will keep leading in the smartphone area, including 4G/5G for ~700mn in 2022. The 5G penetration rate will be from 35-40% in 2021 to be 50% in 2022.
Dividend payout ratio will be 80~85%, and it will be NT$72~76 for 2021. It will be a NT$16 of the special dividend in the coming 4 years.


MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q21 Results/ 1Q22 Outlook- It's a Bit of Beyond Expectation as Actionable

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Capital Securities Corp

Capital Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Capital Securities Corp

Capital Securities provides clients with investment services covering diversified financial products. We have outstanding business performance amid intense competition in the domestic securities market. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>100% capacity utilization rate; reiterate BUY with TP of NTD74. UMC’s growth momentum may come from 5G, IoT and EV in FY22. In particular, higher shipments of PMIC, transceiver/switch and OLED driver IC and demand for more sensors and controllers in multi-lens handset may boost UMC’s sales. UMC revised up FY22 foundry growth to +20% YoY. FY22 EPS is estimated at NTD6.03. Due to UMC’s 100% capacity utilization rate and higher ASP/earnings, we reiterate BUY with TP of NTD74.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

100% capacity utilization rate; reiterate BUY with TP of NTD74. UMC’s growth momentum may come from 5G, IoT and EV in FY22. In particular, higher shipments of PMIC, transceiver/switch and OLED driver IC and demand for more sensors and controllers in multi-lens handset may boost UMC’s sales. UMC revised up FY22 foundry growth to +20% YoY. FY22 EPS is estimated at NTD6.03. Due to UMC’s 100% capacity utilization rate and higher ASP/earnings, we reiterate BUY with TP of NTD74.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Some investors are still questioning UMC if the inventory issues will become a problem. And <strong>UMC does not see the sign of inventory</strong>.</li>
<li>The 4Q21/1Q22 revenue are NT$59.1bn/~NT$62bn, which are higher than our previous estimate by 1.7%/3.3% respectively.  </li>
<li>By 2024, UMC targets to grow revenue/ROE to US$10bn/&gt;20% respectively.</li>
</ul>


Some investors are still questioning UMC if the inventory issues will become a problem. And UMC does not see the sign of inventory.
The 4Q21/1Q22 revenue are NT$59.1bn/~NT$62bn, which are higher than our previous estimate by 1.7%/3.3% respectively.  
By 2024, UMC targets to grow revenue/ROE to US$10bn/&gt;20% respectively.


UMC (UMC.US; 2303.TT) 4Q21 Financial Results/1Q22 Forecast: A Bit Higher in Revenue Outlook

<ul>
<li>To merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability for GlobalWafers now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960 and $1,200 if it finally past.  </li>
<li>Chinese government requested that GlobalWafers has to spin off its Denmark’s subsidiary 8” float zone (FZ) wafer within no more than 9 months at most.</li>
<li>Currently, Siltronic is delivering a GM of 25.6~32% during 1Q~3Q in 2021, which is competitive to Sumco, Shin Etsu. However, it shall be able to improve the GM further.</li>
</ul>


To merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability for GlobalWafers now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960 and $1,200 if it finally past.  
Chinese government requested that GlobalWafers has to spin off its Denmark’s subsidiary 8” float zone (FZ) wafer within no more than 9 months at most.
Currently, Siltronic is delivering a GM of 25.6~32% during 1Q~3Q in 2021, which is competitive to Sumco, Shin Etsu. However, it shall be able to improve the GM further.


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Last Step to Go for Siltronic (WAF GR) Mergence

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

Screening for GEMs: February 2022

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

MediaTek (2454.TT): 4Q21 Results/ 1Q22 Outlook- It's a Bit of Beyond Expectation as Actionable

MediaTek will lead in the smartphone area, including 4G/5G for ~700mn in 2022. The 5G penetration rate will be from 35-40% in 2021 to be 50% in...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303 TT, BUY, NTD57.30)

100% capacity utilization rate; reiterate BUY with TP of NTD74. UMC’s growth momentum may come from 5G, IoT and EV in FY22. In particular, higher...

Capital Securities

UMC (UMC.US; 2303.TT) 4Q21 Financial Results/1Q22 Forecast: A Bit Higher in Revenue Outlook

UMC does not see the sign of inventory. 4Q21/1Q22 sales are NT$59.1bn/~NT$62bn, higher than our previous estimate by 1.7%/3.3% resp. By 2024, UMC...

Patrick Liao

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): The Last Step to Go for Siltronic (WAF GR) Mergence

GlobalWafers to merge with Siltronic has reached to 95% in probability now. Our target price for GlobalWafers doesn’t change at NT$880~960, and it...

Patrick Liao

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