Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The oversupply of 8"/12" mature technology and price war especially within China for the next 5 years is inevitable, especially negative for SMIC and Hua Hong Semi.</li>
<li>Production moving out of China semi demand might increase to 65-70% in next five years to benefit Globalfoundries, UMC, Vanguard, Powerchip mitigating impacts from rising domestic replacement in China.  </li>
<li>By building up in-house fabs, Huawei and HiSilicon supply chain vendors will be benefited the most like semiconductor equipment, material, fab construction, CoWoS interposer, and CoWoS packaging vendors.</li>
</ul>


The oversupply of 8"/12" mature technology and price war especially within China for the next 5 years is inevitable, especially negative for SMIC and Hua Hong Semi.
Production moving out of China semi demand might increase to 65-70% in next five years to benefit Globalfoundries, UMC, Vanguard, Powerchip mitigating impacts from rising domestic replacement in China.  
By building up in-house fabs, Huawei and HiSilicon supply chain vendors will be benefited the most like semiconductor equipment, material, fab construction, CoWoS interposer, and CoWoS packaging vendors.


No Sign of Selling Advanced Scanners by ASML to China Customers, Implications

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 21st. The aggregated holding was USD2,218.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD800mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Unimicron Technology, Nanya Technology, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, Evergreen Marine, Hon Hai Precision.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 21st. The aggregated holding was USD2,218.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD800mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Unimicron Technology, Nanya Technology, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, Evergreen Marine, Hon Hai Precision.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 21st): Unimicron Technology, Nanya Technology, Evergreen Marine

<ul>
<li>Takeaways post model updated: 1. most foundries miss 4Q23 but y/y decline to decelerate; 2. y/y sales passed the trough but utilization later; 3. wafer shipment down 18-20% in 2023;</li>
<li>More takeaways: 4. different mix with different price; 5. some are defensive this year, some might have larger upside for 2024; 6. gross margin still falling and capex cut needed.</li>
<li>
<strong>Automotive/Industrial lags only not beginning of the fall</strong>: Smartphone, pc, consumer/IOT foundry orders might recover earlier than automotive/industrial for 2-3 quarters, resulting fablesses in these area to outperform.</li>
</ul>


Takeaways post model updated: 1. most foundries miss 4Q23 but y/y decline to decelerate; 2. y/y sales passed the trough but utilization later; 3. wafer shipment down 18-20% in 2023;
More takeaways: 4. different mix with different price; 5. some are defensive this year, some might have larger upside for 2024; 6. gross margin still falling and capex cut needed.

Automotive/Industrial lags only not beginning of the fall: Smartphone, pc, consumer/IOT foundry orders might recover earlier than automotive/industrial for 2-3 quarters, resulting fablesses in these area to outperform.


Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector</li>
<li>Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months</li>
<li>Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle</li>
</ul>


There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector
Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months
Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle


<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues have enjoyed month over month growth since April</li>
<li>This growth is higher than the industry's long-term average 3.9% growth</li>
<li>It looks as if the industry is starting another of its typical cycles.</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues have enjoyed month over month growth since April
This growth is higher than the industry's long-term average 3.9% growth
It looks as if the industry is starting another of its typical cycles.


SIA: Semiconductors Up for Fourth Consecutive Month

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

No Sign of Selling Advanced Scanners by ASML to China Customers, Implications

No Sign of Selling Advanced Scanners by ASML to China Customers, Implications; Huawei and HiSilicon supply chain vendors will be benefited the most

Andrew Lu

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 21st): Unimicron Technology, Nanya Technology, Evergreen Marine

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Unimicron Technology (3037 TT), Nanya Technology...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024

Seven takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024 foundry shipment, blended wafer price, sales, and capex growth/decline

Andrew Lu

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

SIA: Semiconductors Up for Fourth Consecutive Month

The semiconductor industry seems to be starting another cycle, with revenues increasing for the past four months. This Insight compares past...

Jim Handy

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52-week Range

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No Sign of Selling Advanced Scanners by ASML to China Customers, Implications

No Sign of Selling Advanced Scanners by ASML to China Customers, Implications; Huawei and HiSilicon supply chain vendors will be benefited the most

Andrew Lu

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 21st): Unimicron Technology, Nanya Technology, Evergreen Marine

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Unimicron Technology (3037 TT), Nanya Technology...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024

Seven takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024 foundry shipment, blended wafer price, sales, and capex growth/decline

Andrew Lu

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

​The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

SIA: Semiconductors Up for Fourth Consecutive Month

The semiconductor industry seems to be starting another cycle, with revenues increasing for the past four months. This Insight compares past...

Jim Handy

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...