Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Foundry segment is on track to decline 15% YoY with no prospects of a meaningful H2 recovery</li>
<li>Inventory levels across smartphone, PC and consumer electronic supply chains remain elevated, plagued by lack-lustre end user demand. </li>
<li>At least some of the key players appear to be lowering prices but this is highly unlikely to stimulate end user demand and may actually make things worse</li>
</ul>


Foundry segment is on track to decline 15% YoY with no prospects of a meaningful H2 recovery
Inventory levels across smartphone, PC and consumer electronic supply chains remain elevated, plagued by lack-lustre end user demand. 
At least some of the key players appear to be lowering prices but this is highly unlikely to stimulate end user demand and may actually make things worse


Q2'23 Foundry Flounders As Inventory Stubbornly Lingers

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated holding was USD2,228.6bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD5,449mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, Nanya Technology, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, TSMC, Yageo.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 14th. The aggregated holding was USD2,228.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD5,449mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, Nanya Technology, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, TSMC, Yageo.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 14th): MediaTek, Nanya Technology, TSMC, Yageo

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?</li>
<li>Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs</li>
<li>DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.</li>
</ul>


Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?
Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs
DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.


<ul>
<li>The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost</li>
<li>Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter</li>
<li>The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024</li>
</ul>


The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost
Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter
The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024


<ul>
<li>Taiwan’s UMC, the world’s third largest foundry, reported Q1’23 revenues of NT$54.2 billion, a decrease of 20.1% QoQ and a 14.5% YoY, in line with expectations</li>
<li>Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, outperforming TSMC's outlook for a 6.5% QoQ decline</li>
<li>Management foresees recovery being slower than previously anticipated and to admits to having very limited visibility into H2'23</li>
</ul>


Taiwan’s UMC, the world’s third largest foundry, reported Q1’23 revenues of NT$54.2 billion, a decrease of 20.1% QoQ and a 14.5% YoY, in line with expectations
Q2'23 forecasted flat sequentially, outperforming TSMC's outlook for a 6.5% QoQ decline
Management foresees recovery being slower than previously anticipated and to admits to having very limited visibility into H2'23


UMC. Calling Q1'23 The Trough Despite Limited Forward Visibility

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

Q2'23 Foundry Flounders As Inventory Stubbornly Lingers

Foundry heading for 15% YoY decline with no prospect of a meaningful H2 recovery. Some key players may be lowering prices. This is unlikely to...

William Keating

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 14th): MediaTek, Nanya Technology, TSMC, Yageo

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in MediaTek, Nanya Technology, Powerchip...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Encouraging Signs in Recent Semi Stats

The chip market is giving signs of a recovery which will see rising revenues but should remain unprofitable for commodity players until mid-2024. ...

Jim Handy

Where Are We in the Semiconductor Cycle?

Will the semiconductor market turn around? Revenues are likely to regain modest growth in the fourth quarter, but profits shouldn't return until...

Jim Handy

UMC. Calling Q1'23 The Trough Despite Limited Forward Visibility

Q1’23 revenues of NT$54.2 billion, a decrease of 20.1% QoQ and a 14.5% YoY, in line with expectations. Recovery slower than previously anticipated,...

William Keating

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