Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)'</a>s 3Q25 outlook shows slight improvement over 2Q25, potentially around +5%.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> overall utilization expected to reach around 75–80% in 3Q25, with 0.18µm loading is nearly full.</li>
<li>Progress on Vanguard’s Singapore 12” fab is still in early stages, with the main constraint being the equipment move-in schedule.  </li>
</ul>



Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)'s 3Q25 outlook shows slight improvement over 2Q25, potentially around +5%.  

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) overall utilization expected to reach around 75–80% in 3Q25, with 0.18µm loading is nearly full.
Progress on Vanguard’s Singapore 12” fab is still in early stages, with the main constraint being the equipment move-in schedule.  


Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated holding was USD1,057.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD392mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components, United Integrated Services, Eva Airways, Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Yang Ming Marine, Chicony Electronics, Ctbc Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated holding was USD1,057.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD392mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components, United Integrated Services, Eva Airways, Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Yang Ming Marine, Chicony Electronics, Ctbc Financial.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 13th): TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated short interest was USD25.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine, Jinan Acetate Chemical, Novatek Microelectronics, Compeq Manufacturing, Nanya Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated short interest was USD25.7bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine, Jinan Acetate Chemical, Novatek Microelectronics, Compeq Manufacturing, Nanya Technology.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level</li>
<li>UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level</li>
<li>ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level
ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 3Q25 outlook sees slight improvement over 2Q25, with utilization expected to reach 75-80% and progress on Singapore...

Patrick Liao

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 13th): TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Mediatek (2454 TT), Asia Vital...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Cathay Financial (2882 TT), Fubon Financial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Vanguard (5347.TT): The 3Q25 Outlook Is Expected to Improve by Around 5% QoQ.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 3Q25 outlook sees slight improvement over 2Q25, with utilization expected to reach 75-80% and progress on Singapore...

Patrick Liao

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jun 13th): TSMC, Mediatek, Asia Vital Components

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Mediatek (2454 TT), Asia Vital...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): Cathay Financial, Fubon Financial, Wistron, Yang Ming Marine

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Cathay Financial (2882 TT), Fubon Financial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor's 3Q25 outlook sees slight improvement over 2Q25, with utilization expected to reach 75-80% and progress on Singapore...