Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.</li>
<li>100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the  TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.</li>
<li>2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.
100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the  TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.
2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.


Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
TSMC: +15% Premium; Trading Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>
UMC: -1.8% Discount; Also Near a Level to Go Long the Spread</li>
<li>
CHT: -2.2% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread</li>
</ul>



TSMC: +15% Premium; Trading Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread

UMC: -1.8% Discount; Also Near a Level to Go Long the Spread

CHT: -2.2% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 2nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory Technology.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory Technology

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We assume that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.</li>
<li>The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. </li>
</ul>


We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. 


Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

<ul>
<li>
TSMC: +19.5% Premium; Short Interest in ADRs Jumps to New Highs; Open Fresh Short of Spread at 20% or Higher</li>
<li>
ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Opening New Short</li>
<li>
CHT: -1.0% Discount; Consider Going Long the Spread; ADR Short Interest Rises to New Highs</li>
</ul>



TSMC: +19.5% Premium; Short Interest in ADRs Jumps to New Highs; Open Fresh Short of Spread at 20% or Higher

ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Opening New Short

CHT: -1.0% Discount; Consider Going Long the Spread; ADR Short Interest Rises to New Highs


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

Price Gauge
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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

2024 payout ratio 83.76%. 2Q25 Revenue guidance NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn, Gross Margin 37–40%, OPM 18.5–21.5%. Sales and cost in USD, 1% TWD...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory Technology

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.

​2024 payout ratio 83.76%. 2Q25 Revenue guidance NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn, Gross Margin 37–40%, OPM 18.5–21.5%. Sales and cost in USD, 1% TWD...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Market Volatility Has Opened Up Multiple Spread Trading Levels

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory Technology

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Winbond Electronics, China Motor, Ap Memory...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

2024 payout ratio 83.76%. 2Q25 Revenue guidance NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn, Gross Margin 37–40%, OPM 18.5–21.5%. Sales and cost in USD, 1% TWD...

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...