Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>The US-China trade war has shaped a new trend: Advanced and Matured Technologies led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> respectively.</li>
<li>Notably, construction of semiconductor fabs in Singapore seems to be of lesser concern at the moment.</li>
<li>The emergence of AI offers new hope, not only for advanced semiconductor technology but also for lagging technologies.</li>
</ul>


The US-China trade war has shaped a new trend: Advanced and Matured Technologies led by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) respectively.
Notably, construction of semiconductor fabs in Singapore seems to be of lesser concern at the moment.
The emergence of AI offers new hope, not only for advanced semiconductor technology but also for lagging technologies.


The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +25.4% Premium; At Historical Highs, Good Level to Short the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: +2.1% Premium; Upper Level of Historical Range, Short Level</li>
<li>ASE: +5.4% Premium; Near-Term High However Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +25.4% Premium; At Historical Highs, Good Level to Short the Spread
UMC: +2.1% Premium; Upper Level of Historical Range, Short Level
ASE: +5.4% Premium; Near-Term High However Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Near All-Time Highs; UMC at Upper End of Range

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 20th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Yang Ming Marine, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine, TSMC, Elite Material, Mitac, Bizlink.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 20th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD22.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Yang Ming Marine, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine, TSMC, Elite Material, Mitac, Bizlink.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): Yang Ming Marine, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 20th which has an aggregated holding worth USD993.3bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,219mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite Material, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital Components.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 20th which has an aggregated holding worth USD993.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,219mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite Material, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Yang Ming Marine, Quanta Computer, Asia Vital Components.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 20th): Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite Material

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pentamaster-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31099:1" rel="noopener">Pentamaster International (1665 HK)</a> disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pentamaster-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15302:1" rel="noopener">Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK)</a> and AchiCapital at HK$1.00 (HK$0.93 cash + HK$0.07 dividend), a 56.3% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The offer is final but unattractive compared to peer multiples. The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller, but there is risk due to a high AGM participation rate.</li>
<li>An arguably light offer in which the Holdco is privatising its OpCo by arbitraging the valuation discrepancies across two exchanges may not sit well with minorities.</li>
</ul>



Pentamaster International (1665 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) and AchiCapital at HK$1.00 (HK$0.93 cash + HK$0.07 dividend), a 56.3% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The offer is final but unattractive compared to peer multiples. The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller, but there is risk due to a high AGM participation rate.
An arguably light offer in which the Holdco is privatising its OpCo by arbitraging the valuation discrepancies across two exchanges may not sit well with minorities.


Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Pentamaster Corp and AchiCapital’s Light Scheme Offer

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Near All-Time Highs; UMC at Upper End of Range

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): Yang Ming Marine, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Yang Ming Marine, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 20th): Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite Material

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Pentamaster Corp and AchiCapital’s Light Scheme Offer

The risk/reward is unattractive. An arguably light offer in which the Holdco is privatising its OpCo by arbitraging the valuation discrepancies...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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The US-China Trade War Is Likely to Split the Semiconductor Industry into Two Groups.

​US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Near All-Time Highs; UMC at Upper End of Range

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): Yang Ming Marine, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Yang Ming Marine, Wiwynn, Quanta Computer,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 20th): Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite Material

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Alchip Technologies, TSMC, Asia Optical, Elite...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pentamaster International (1665 HK): Pentamaster Corp and AchiCapital’s Light Scheme Offer

The risk/reward is unattractive. An arguably light offer in which the Holdco is privatising its OpCo by arbitraging the valuation discrepancies...

Arun George

US-China trade war drives shift towards Advanced and Matured Technologies led by TSMC and SMIC, with AI offering hope for semiconductor and...