Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>4Q24 Guidance: Sales will be US$26.1-26.9bn, up 13%; GM outlook will be 57-59%; and OPM outlook is 46.5-48.5%</li>
<li>AI revenue contribution will triple and reach mid-teens sales contribution this year. Almost every AI innovator cooperates with TSMC.</li>
<li>APT will grow above the corporate average in the next five years.GM is approaching the corporate average, but it's not the same currently.</li>
</ul>


4Q24 Guidance: Sales will be US$26.1-26.9bn, up 13%; GM outlook will be 57-59%; and OPM outlook is 46.5-48.5%
AI revenue contribution will triple and reach mid-teens sales contribution this year. Almost every AI innovator cooperates with TSMC.
APT will grow above the corporate average in the next five years.GM is approaching the corporate average, but it's not the same currently.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +15.6% Premium; Relatively Aggressive Trade is to Long Premium</li>
<li>ASE: -3.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium</li>
<li>CHT: -2.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +15.6% Premium; Relatively Aggressive Trade is to Long Premium
ASE: -3.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
CHT: -2.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Holding Up; ASE & CHT See Sharp Drops

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 11th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,014.8bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,158mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 11th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,014.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,158mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 11th): TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 11th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision Industry, Global Unichip, Via Technologies, Wan Hai Lines, Taiwan Cement, Shin Kong Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 11th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision Industry, Global Unichip, Via Technologies, Wan Hai Lines, Taiwan Cement, Shin Kong Financial.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 11th): Hon Hai Precision Industry, Global Unichip, Via Technologies

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)'s </a>outlook for 4Q24 is expected to show a decrease of around -5% QoQ, with a minimum gross margin of 30%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> moving out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> and has opened up opportunities for UMC.  </li>
<li>UMC is considering selling its 8" Fab, known as 8S, due to its consistently poor performance.  </li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)'s outlook for 4Q24 is expected to show a decrease of around -5% QoQ, with a minimum gross margin of 30%.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) moving out of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) and has opened up opportunities for UMC.  
UMC is considering selling its 8" Fab, known as 8S, due to its consistently poor performance.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.

TSMC's 4Q24 guidance shows strong sales growth, with AI revenue set to triple and contribute significantly to overall sales. APT expected to...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Holding Up; ASE & CHT See Sharp Drops

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 11th): TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 11th): Hon Hai Precision Industry, Global Unichip, Via Technologies

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision Industry, Global Unichip, Via...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.

UMC's 4Q24 outlook expects -5% QoQ decrease with 30% gross margin, Qualcomm moving out of SMIC opens opportunities for UMC, considering selling...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.

​TSMC's 4Q24 guidance shows strong sales growth, with AI revenue set to triple and contribute significantly to overall sales. APT expected to...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Holding Up; ASE & CHT See Sharp Drops

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 11th): TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Fubon Financial, Quanta Computer, Wistron.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 11th): Hon Hai Precision Industry, Global Unichip, Via Technologies

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Hon Hai Precision Industry, Global Unichip, Via...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q24 Outlook Blurred; QCOM Opens up a New Chance; Considering Selling Fab 8S.

​UMC's 4Q24 outlook expects -5% QoQ decrease with 30% gross margin, Qualcomm moving out of SMIC opens opportunities for UMC, considering selling...

Patrick Liao

TSMC's 4Q24 guidance shows strong sales growth, with AI revenue set to triple and contribute significantly to overall sales. APT expected to...

UMC's 4Q24 outlook expects -5% QoQ decrease with 30% gross margin, Qualcomm moving out of SMIC opens opportunities for UMC, considering selling...