Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +12.8%y/y for 3Q22-to-date, a significant slowdown from what was reported for 2Q22.</li>
<li>60% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, same as in 2Q22, whilst 65% delivered positive EPS surprise, up from 56% in 2Q22.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +12.8%y/y for 3Q22-to-date, a significant slowdown from what was reported for 2Q22.
60% of companies delivered positive sales surprise, same as in 2Q22, whilst 65% delivered positive EPS surprise, up from 56% in 2Q22.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC -- Trading near parity, decent setup opportunity at the current level.</li>
<li>UMC -- Trading at a discount, another decent setup opportunity.</li>
<li>Chunghwa Telecom -- Rare opportunity here, trading at a steep discount compared to the tight historical range.</li>
</ul>


TSMC -- Trading near parity, decent setup opportunity at the current level.
UMC -- Trading at a discount, another decent setup opportunity.
Chunghwa Telecom -- Rare opportunity here, trading at a steep discount compared to the tight historical range.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC & UMC Nice Setup Opportunities, Chunghwa Rare Deep Discount

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024</li>
<li>This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023</li>
<li>Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.</li>
</ul>


The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024
This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023
Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.


2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>3Q22E earnings came in mostly ahead of expectations, however, if one looks at margin and inventory performance, the latest earnings season doesn't look so good.</li>
<li>Semiconductor margins fell and inventory days rose multi-year highs, Hardware margins fell further and inventory days look worse than ever.</li>
<li>Conclusion: 4Q22E end-demand could disappoint significantly and then companies will be slashing prices/writing off inventory into 1Q23E.</li>
</ul>


3Q22E earnings came in mostly ahead of expectations, however, if one looks at margin and inventory performance, the latest earnings season doesn't look so good.
Semiconductor margins fell and inventory days rose multi-year highs, Hardware margins fell further and inventory days look worse than ever.
Conclusion: 4Q22E end-demand could disappoint significantly and then companies will be slashing prices/writing off inventory into 1Q23E.


Taiwan Tech 3Q22 Earnings Season Ex-Post: Signs of Major Margin Pain Ahead

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 25th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn Corp, Largan Precision, Hon Hai, Tong Hsing.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 25th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn Corp, Largan Precision, Hon Hai, Tong Hsing.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Nov 25th): Wiwynn Corp, Largan Precision, Hon Hai, Tong Hsing

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 3Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales- and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC & UMC Nice Setup Opportunities, Chunghwa Rare Deep Discount

Chunghwa Telecom -- Rare opportunity here, trading at a steep discount compared to the tight historical range. TSMC and UMC also present decent...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

What's happening in semiconductors? When will the downturn end? What does this mean to chip stock prices? This Insight provides some concrete...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech 3Q22 Earnings Season Ex-Post: Signs of Major Margin Pain Ahead

If we examine the industry's latest gross margin and inventory performance, the latest quarterly results don't look so good.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Nov 25th): Wiwynn Corp, Largan Precision, Hon Hai, Tong Hsing

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn Corp, Largan Precision, Hon Hai, Tong Hsing.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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