Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.</li>
<li>End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. </li>
<li>Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.</li>
</ul>


Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.
End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. 
Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.


Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC and UMC reported large increase in Oct sales: +25%  and +13% MoM. Impressive, but within the big trends: TSMC high growth plateau. UMC slow recovery period.</li>
<li>Semiconductor global sales growth is accelerating slightly: up 19% YoY over the previous 6 months and +23% YoY in Sept. Reflecting both sustained AI growth and a mass-markets bottoming out.</li>
<li>TSMC: valuations are high, not extreme, the stock is not breaking the NT$1,100 barrier. UMC at average valuations, at the bottom of its NT$45-55 trading range, maybe a short-term trade.</li>
</ul>


TSMC and UMC reported large increase in Oct sales: +25%  and +13% MoM. Impressive, but within the big trends: TSMC high growth plateau. UMC slow recovery period.
Semiconductor global sales growth is accelerating slightly: up 19% YoY over the previous 6 months and +23% YoY in Sept. Reflecting both sustained AI growth and a mass-markets bottoming out.
TSMC: valuations are high, not extreme, the stock is not breaking the NT$1,100 barrier. UMC at average valuations, at the bottom of its NT$45-55 trading range, maybe a short-term trade.


TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 8th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,059.5bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD77mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Foxconn Technology, Wistron, TSMC, Mediatek, United Microelectronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 8th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,059.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD77mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Foxconn Technology, Wistron, TSMC, Mediatek, United Microelectronics.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 8th): Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 8th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in TSMC, Ase Industrial, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron, Largan Precision, Delta Electronics, Wt Microelectronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 8th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in TSMC, Ase Industrial, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron, Largan Precision, Delta Electronics, Wt Microelectronics.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): TSMC, Ase Industrial, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +18.6% Premium; Near the Middle of Most Recent Trading Range</li>
<li>UMC: -1.4% Discount; Short Interest in Local Shares Continues to Surge</li>
<li>ASE: +2.0% Premium; Another Example of Surging Short Interest in Local Shares</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +18.6% Premium; Near the Middle of Most Recent Trading Range
UMC: -1.4% Discount; Short Interest in Local Shares Continues to Surge
ASE: +2.0% Premium; Another Example of Surging Short Interest in Local Shares


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Surging Short Interest in Local Shares of UMC and ASE

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.

Nicolas Baratte

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 8th): Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): TSMC, Ase Industrial, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in TSMC, Ase Industrial, Hon Hai Precision...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Surging Short Interest in Local Shares of UMC and ASE

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

​Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC, UMC, Global Semi Monthly Sales: Small Acceleration

​TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.

Nicolas Baratte

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 8th): Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): TSMC, Ase Industrial, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in TSMC, Ase Industrial, Hon Hai Precision...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Surging Short Interest in Local Shares of UMC and ASE

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

TSMC and UMC report strong Oct sales growth, but remain on their bigger trends: TSMC on a high growth plateau, UMC in a slow recovery period.